Let’s Be Buyers

[RZNJ]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Stowers was a third rounder.  Big difference.

1st pick of the 2nd round in 2019.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1st pick of the 2nd round in 2019.

Third pick for the Os is what I was thinking.  Thanks for the correction.

 

[Camden Yards]

I think the Orioles should trade Santander and/or Mancini. Any reliever that we need to add to get a good SP prospect I would do. This would free up time for Stowers and Westburg. Send Nevin down after his dad sees him play. This will allow Westburg to get the starting 3B job and maybe spell at SS and 2B at certain times. We need to bring up Vavra to see if his OBP translates to the majors.

I would have Hays, Mullins, and Stowers in the OF. If Mancini and Santander are gone, then Stowers, Westburg, Rutschman, and other can rotate into the DH spot. I would try to extend Mullins and Hays. Their defense is incredible!

in terms of our biggest need which is SP, I would be looking at Noah Syndergaard, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, and maybe even Shane Bieber. The Padres are looking at saving luxury tax money so maybe we could get Snell or Clevinger cheap in terms of any prospects going back their way. The Angels are going backward and have to try to sign Ohtani so maybe they cannot afford Syndergaard. They have huge contracts already in Trout and Rendon. Noah would be a rental right now unless we can trade for him now and sign to an extension. If I could get two of those pitchers I would!

Noah, Clevinger, GROD, Hall, and Wells would be solid! When Means returns you slowly get in back in the mix. Plus we will see what happens with Kremer. Hall and Bradish might end up in the pen anyways!

My big free agent splash would be Trea Turner! Bring our young guys up, add two pitchers, and then add a stud veteran to the offense!

Mullins

Trea

Rutschman

Mountcastle

Hays

Gunnar

Stowers

Westburg

Vavra

Bench- Chirinos, Mateo, McKenna, ?

Seems like a good lineup?? Probably won’t happen but as a lifetime Oriole fan at least I can see the possibilities of competing for a WS in the next three years. We need some luck but at least we only have to fill like three or four spots from FA or trades. The last couple of years we needed to fill out a whole roster! I can definitely see the makings now.

 

 

 

[Camden_yardbird]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

Without actually looking, I’d guess that Oakland and Tampa have done this at times.  

DiPoto does it all the time. 

[Brooks The Great]

6 hours ago, Jagwar said:

When has that ever happened? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if a team has ever approached the deadline as a buyer and a seller and successfully pulled off trades. 

The Rays essentially do it all the time. Even during the offseason. I trust Elias to be able to pull it off.

[LTO's]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Apparently the Marlins owner wants to see his team go for it.  They probably won’t deal Lopez because of how good he has been and helps them now.  I would guess Eury Perez has become a guy they won’t move.

Im still looking at Meyer as the guy.  Can you guy Meyer and another Ml starter (like Bautista) or another very good prospect for Mullins?

If so, should the Os do that?  Meyer is having a nice season in AAA.  He is getting close to be ML ready.  Top 25 prospect who likely has a solid chance of being a mid rotation starter with the upside to be more.

You would think at some point the Marlins would stop trading for/acquiring former Orioles relievers. Pop, Sulser, Scott and Yacabonis have combined for a total of 0.0 bWAR this year. 

Rumor has been for a while that they are in love with Mullins. If the O's traded Mullins for Meyer I suppose I wouldn't hate it but it's certainly a risk. He looks to me like a guy who is settling in as a 4ish WAR player with the possibility to give you more. 

[Brooks The Great]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

You would think at some point the Marlins would stop trading for/acquiring former Orioles relievers. Pop, Sulser, Scott and Yacabonis have combined for a total of 0.0 bWAR this year. 

Rumor has been for a while that they are in love with Mullins. If the O's traded Mullins for Meyer I suppose I wouldn't hate it but it's certainly a risk. He looks to me like a guy who is settling in as a 4ish WAR player with the possibility to give you more. 

Scott has saved a bunch of games for them, though, so that point is not now.  They're probably happy with what they got for the time being (even though Sulser and Scott were never going to be long-term pieces for us) and would come to us for more bullpen help.

[Flash- bd]

We've got a 0.4% chance at the playoffs according to fangraphs. We have limited scope for investment in the team with our ownership situation, what will our odds raise to next season, factoring in potential FA additions and arrivals of prospects, who will be in their rookie years and going through growing pains like Adley this season, like Grayson, Gunnar, Westburg, Vavra, Stowers, etc.? Maybe 3-5%? We can't make the playoffs finishing 5th in our division, how big is the talent gap between us and our next closest in the division? 

Time for a bit of realism. It's nice to have some positivity and that things are moving forward but we still clearly need to be in a value / talent adding phase at this point. Our targets maybe need to be a bit different (ie, higher minors guys), but we still badly need to be sellers, IMO, and badly need to generate some more value through trades, something we've done not quite enough of so far under Elias in the rebuild, IMO (partly because we haven't had much talent to deal...we are now at that point where we've accumulated some talent where we can deal, and we need to use it).

López, Tate, Lyles, and Mancini,  I would absolutely deal all 4. Santander (because he's affordable and I get the feeling we can sell him a bit higher than he currently has established, performance level-wise), Mullins, and Hays, depending on the deal. 

The idea of being buyers, I really don't see it, at this stage.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

You would think at some point the Marlins would stop trading for/acquiring former Orioles relievers. Pop, Sulser, Scott and Yacabonis have combined for a total of 0.0 bWAR this year. 

Rumor has been for a while that they are in love with Mullins. If the O's traded Mullins for Meyer I suppose I wouldn't hate it but it's certainly a risk. He looks to me like a guy who is settling in as a 4ish WAR player with the possibility to give you more. 

So,  I don’t really disagree with you.

The question is, with the depth in the OF that we have and with Mullins getting older (ie beyond the historical peak years) and more expensive over the next few years, do you cash in now?  
 

For me, I think Mullins represents our best chance to obtain high level, cost controlled pitching and I think that is more important to us than what he will be providing in 2-4 years.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Scott has saved a bunch of games for them, though, so that point is not now.  They're probably happy with what they got for the time being (even though Sulser and Scott were never going to be long-term pieces for us) and would come to us for more bullpen help.

He's saved some games for them but he and Sulser have been just league average to slightly below average pitchers. Now, I'm of the opinion that league average is all those two will ever be and the return the Orioles got for them is sort of indicative of that, but I'm sure Kim Ng was hoping they would pitch much better away from the AL East in Marlins Park. Point is, they haven't been able to tap into the skills these guys possess much better than the Orioles were able to. Teams do seem to prefer trading with the orgs they've done business with in the past so you never know. 

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

We've got a 0.4% chance at the playoffs according to fangraphs. We have limited scope for investment in the team with our ownership situation, what will our odds raise to next season, factoring in potential FA additions and arrivals of prospects, who will be in their rookie years and going through growing pains like Adley this season, like Grayson, Gunnar, Westburg, Vavra, Stowers, etc.? Maybe 3-5%? We can't make the playoffs finishing 5th in our division, how big is the talent gap between us and our next closest in the division? 

Time for a bit of realism. It's nice to have some positivity and that things are moving forward but we still clearly need to be in a value / talent adding phase at this point. Our targets maybe need to be a bit different (ie, higher minors guys), but we still badly need to be sellers, IMO, and badly need to generate some more value through trades, something we've done not quite enough of so far under Elias in the rebuild, IMO (partly because we haven't had much talent to deal...we are now at that point where we've accumulated some talent where we can deal, and we need to use it).

López, Tate, Lyles, and Mancini,  I would absolutely deal all 4. Santander (because he's affordable and I get the feeling we can sell him a bit higher than he currently has established, performance level-wise), Mullins, and Hays, depending on the deal. 

The idea of being buyers, I really don't see it, at this stage.  

This is the way.

[sportsfan8703]

We’re 5 GB of Toronto with 15 games remaining versus them. In a way, we control our destiny. Yadda Yadda other teams involved too. 10-5 closes that gap. 

[Just Regular]

Last night in Game 1 of Red Sox-Yankees (7 out of 10 against each other before ASB), they had the graphic the Red Sox were 9-18 against the AL East and 36-19 against others.

Entering last night - the Red Sox had completed a division-low 27 games against the other beasts (Yankees 38, Rays 33, Jays 34, Orioles 34)

One of my favorite hobby horses is how not so great the post-Mookie Red Sox are.    The 2022 Yankees are a strong outlier in the league this year.     Red Sox have dropped consecutive series to TOR-CHC-TB before beginning now gauntlet of NYY-TB-NYY-TOR-CLE-MIL-HOU.    Sounds like Chris Sale is already in a bad mood.

Being fanciful I might guess ALEast 4th place has a 50% chance at Wildcard3.   Can Orioles beat Red Sox?

This week's ZiPS midseason forecast placed AL wildcard outcomes at Blue Jays 88, Rays 88, Red Sox 87, ALCentral 2nd place 85, Mariners 84, Guardians 81.    I believe TOR-TB will get their 88 wins but everyone else it isn't hard to imagine those Clubs falling a bit short of those benchmarks.

Its fun enough I'm now second guessing myself for being glad this morning Seattle beat Toronto last night.    Let's get hot, Tigers and Royals.    The path to 82 wins probably involves more than 44 days for the thoroughbreds, and 15 good starts from Hall-Rodriguez, if those things aren't inconceivable-impermissible.   Its sort of fun to think of every NYY-TOR-TB win as doing work on our behalf.

Wouldn't hurt if Month3 Adley was as much better than Month2 Adley as M2A is >> M1A.

[LookinUp]

If they draft Jones, it would give cover to trade Mullins. Just saying.

Mancini and Santander seem like they'd net some A ball pitching. 

It would be nice to package as many of our guys together for a single high level prospect as opposed to many A ball pitchers, but I expect the latter. I don't see teams giving up top 30 arms for a combination of Santander, Mancini, Tate and Lopez. Maybe I'm wrong.

[BirdinBama]

I'm as excited as anyone that we're playing well, and that the Elias plan is in good shape. But, come on, we are not a playoff team this year in my opinion.