Mike Trout to the Orioles?

[Jim'sKid26]

What is a reasonable expectation for Trout's performance between now and the end of his contract? Is there any historical context here or are we all just spitballing this?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

What is a reasonable expectation for Trout's performance between now and the end of his contract? Is there any historical context here or are we all just spitballing this?

We don’t know how the back will bother him.

If the back is manageable as Trout says and he is able to give you 125+ games a year, I would expect him to be an MVP candidate for at least 3 more years and still be a good player after that.

But the back is the concern.  
 

[UMDTerrapins]

1 hour ago, vab said:

The rumors have been that the Orioles will target a shortstop in the offseason as a huge crop of players hits free agency

This is the only part that caught my attention. Since Elias started he's almost been obsessive about drafting shortstops. We already have Mateo, Henderson, Westburg, Jackson, Ortiz, Hernaiz, Bencosme, Burns, and Hernandez in the organization. And it's not like we don't have any prospects at 2B/3B and these guys are just going to spread out to play other positions. If we were going to target one position to upgrade with a FA signing, shortstop would be pretty low on the list. This rumor is nonsense, right? 

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

This is the only part that caught my attention. Since Elias started he's almost been obsessive about drafting shortstops. We already have Mateo, Henderson, Westburg, Jackson, Ortiz, Hernaiz, Bencosme, Burns, and Hernandez in the organization. And it's not like we don't have any prospects at 2B/3B and these guys are just going to spread out to play other positions. If we were going to target one position to upgrade with a FA signing, shortstop would be pretty low on the list. This rumor is nonsense, right? 

You draft the best player available. Most of those guys are either pitchers or SS.

Usually guys that play very well at SS, can play other positions, just as well.

I really disagree that they are targeting SSs.

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If they'd do it for, like, Stowers, Westburg, Hall, and a couple of Domincan teenager lottery tickets, while also eating like $10 million per year on his remaining deal, hell freaking yeah I would do it, even with his injury issues. The guy is one of the greatest to ever play the game and would legitimately put butts in seats.

But...they wouldn't, so it's a moot point.

That said, as someone who acquired him on an O's franchise on last year's MLB The Show, I can attest that Mike Trout does indeed look &$#@ing GREAT in orange and black.

This was essentially what I was looking at in the original proposal

I would ask the Angels to help us make it more like $20 Million a year for Trout.  We give them Hays and Mullins with 3 years of control left bc who knows if they are going full blown rebuild. There is some good talent on their roster, and adding Mullins and Hays is a low cost, controllable buy.  On the other hand, we shed a bit of salary by sending off two of our arbitration eligible OFs that can still be filled by Stowers, Santander, Cowser, McKenna, Vavra or Trout.  The Angels milb system needs a shot in the arm too. Hall gives them a Top Prospect and potential TOR LHP. We know he has risk as a reliever, but let the Angels make up their mind. Westburg is Top 100, but I think we can fill his void with a lot of the top MIF prospects coming behind him.  Plus Mateo's potential rise gives us another year to consider the position.  Mayo could be blocked by Henderson or Mountcastle. Rom and Pinto gives them B level pitching depth.  

I think Trout needs to be transitioned to corner OF/DH to save his body too.

Also, I dont know if they should make this trade, I'm just saying, if they did, it would probably look something like Hays, Mullins, Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Pinto, Rom for Trout and Cash

[Jim'sKid26]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We don’t know how the back will bother him.

If the back is manageable as Trout says and he is able to give you 125+ games a year, I would expect him to be an MVP candidate for at least 3 more years and still be a good player after that.

But the back is the concern.  
 

So Trout will be 32 soon. 

If we use Mantle as an example, I don't know if this is fair or not, Mantle was 32 in 1964.

1964 was his last great year, .303/.429/.591 with an OPS+ of 177. He was good in 1966, (.288/.389/.538  OPS+=170) but has to leave the OF his last 2 years to play 1B. He retired in 1968. 

If you have to pay Trout for 8 years at his current salary it doesn't seem likely he's worth it. However, two years of OPS+ >170 might change this current O's team quite a bit. 

[Aglets]

8 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

This is the only part that caught my attention. Since Elias started he's almost been obsessive about drafting shortstops. We already have Mateo, Henderson, Westburg, Jackson, Ortiz, Hernaiz, Bencosme, Burns, and Hernandez in the organization. And it's not like we don't have any prospects at 2B/3B and these guys are just going to spread out to play other positions. If we were going to target one position to upgrade with a FA signing, shortstop would be pretty low on the list. This rumor is nonsense, right? 

I don't think it's nonsense for at least 2 reasons:

1.  There is nothing that prevents the Orioles from adding other positions of need (cough cough SP cough cough) in ADDITION to SS.

2.  There were heavy rumors linking us to Correa this past off-season.  Correa is expected to be available right?   He is on pace for a 4.0 WAR season or so and has an opt out.   There is still a strong Elias connection there.

[Hallas]

37 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm sure it's part of the equation.

But the bigger part is that other teams will offer better packages than Hays, Mullins, Hall and some other stuff. And the Orioles are not a team that needs to take on a Miguel Cabrera type contract.  

And, if I were the Orioles I wouldn't offer that deal.  I don't know that I'd offer any deal that the Angels were likely to accept. The key to sustainable Orioles success is a pipeline of top prospects to continuously refresh the MLB roster with cheap talent.  It's not to trade six or seven players for 32-year-old stars on $400M contracts.

I don't think any team is going to make an offer the Angels are likely to accept. I don't think many teams are in a position to beat Hall as a headliner for Trout, and if they're looking for a Soto level package then there's no shot he gets traded.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Hallas

[Jagwar]

I'd rather spend money on a young free agent than give up prospects for (likely) a few good years of Trout.  

[NCRaven]

“Committing over $150 million to a player in his 30s, what could possibly go wrong.”

~Chris Davis

Edited August 25, 2022 by NCRaven

[spleen1015]

Not just no but f-ck no.

We just got over one dead contract. We don't need another for another century.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

I'd trade the entire farm for Ohtani, on the other hand.

Duquette bonus round....would you trade Mike Elias for Shohei Ohtani, free agent after 2023?

On Trout, the nice thing about trades for any player on an expensive FA deal is the trade itself is an opportunity to re-litigate who will pay the paychecks in the future.     This was part of the Yankees Giancarlo, the Astros and their expensive pitcher acquisitions, and I'm positive it also would be for any expensive player Elias' Orioles acquire in trade.

I think Trout after the latest round of back problems probably more underwater than Ohtani has surplus value, so notwithstanding whatever posturing would go on to respect the players, you could probably trade Tyler Nevin for Trout and Ohtani, depending on the $$$ arrangements.

[OriolesMagic83]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They'll just trade him to the Yanks or Dodgers.  They'll take on the entire contract and give them back some decent prospects.  Like the Stanton deal.

I think a team like the Mariners would be in the mix.  They have a loaded farm system and a low payroll.  They have had a top payroll in the recent past. 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

What is a reasonable expectation for Trout's performance between now and the end of his contract? Is there any historical context here or are we all just spitballing this?

Well, the possible outcomes are all over the lot, but let’s be as realistic as we can.  

Trout has 8 years, $297 mm remaining on his contract.   To earn that, he’ll have to be worth about 37 WAR over the next 8 years, at ages 31-38.  He is still producing at a 7 WAR/162 pace over the last three years, when he’s been healthy.   But, he’s been oft-injured.  If I had to bet the over/under on 37 WAR over the rest of his career, I’d have no choice but to bet the under.  And for the record, I hope I’m wrong.  I enjoy watching greatness.   

Saying that, if I’m the Angels, any trade package has to include a guy who seems likely to be a multiple time all star, two other guys likely to be good major leaguers, and a couple of high upside lottery tickets.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Duquette bonus round....would you trade Mike Elias for Shohei Ohtani, free agent after 2023?

On Trout, the nice thing about trades for any player on an expensive FA deal is the trade itself is an opportunity to re-litigate who will pay the paychecks in the future.     This was part of the Yankees Giancarlo, the Astros and their expensive pitcher acquisitions, and I'm positive it also would be for any expensive player Elias' Orioles acquire in trade.

I think Trout after the latest round of back problems probably more underwater than Ohtani has surplus value, so notwithstanding whatever posturing would go on to respect the players, you could probably trade Tyler Nevin for Trout and Ohtani, depending on the $$$ arrangements.

I would trade Elias for Ohtani if I can include the Angelos family.  lol  3 way trade and the O's get Cohen from the Mets.