Building a case that the current O’s could be a 90+ win team

[Frobby]

I’m starting to build the case that the O’s could win 90+ games this year.   It requires a little positive thinking, but nothing too far-fetched, I hope.   Here are the building blocks for the case:

1.  The Adley Effect.   The team was 12 games over .500 (67-55) once Adley arrived.   Just extend that .549 winning percentage to 162 games and it gets you to 89 wins.  If instead you look at the team’s Pythagorean record after Adley arrived, it gets you to 85 wins.

2.  The Gunnar Effect.   It’s not just that Gunnar is a good player, but look where his at bats are likely coming from.  They’re mostly going to be coming from the at bats given last year to Nevin and Odor.   

3.  The Balanced Schedule.   The O’s ended up going 34-42 (.447) against the AL East, 49-37 (.570) against everyone else.  24 fewer games against the AL East should equate to about 3 more wins at those percentages.   

4.  The Marginal Offseason Upgrades.  This one is a bit subjective in that it depends whether you think that Gibson, Frazier and McCann are likely to bounce back from their relatively poor 2022 performances, and by how much.  But personally, I believe that Frazier will outperform 2022 Odor, and McCann will outperform 2022 Chirinos/Bemboom, and that Gibson will hold his own against 2022 Lyles and possibly outperform him.   I think those 3 plus Givens will improve the team by 2-4 wins.  

5. The Experience Factor.  A lot of guys got their first big league experience in 2022.   As a group, those players are likely to be better in 2023 now that they’ve gotten their feet wet.   

6.  Better Roster Construction.  Overall, I think this roster will be better constructed due to the positional flexibility of Gunnar and Frazier.   Lots of ways Hyde can make the pieces fit on a given day.   

7.  The Grayson Effect.  Saved this for the end because it’s risky to count too much on a rookie pitcher.    But he’s an upgrade - potentially, a huge one, but we’ll see about that in year one.  

So, that’s my case that this can be a 90+ win team.   Running counter to this: the likelihood of regression from several of the pitchers, and the likelihood of more injuries than in 2022 on offense.   Those things, if extreme enough, could put the team under .500.   But, as a fan who likes to go into a season with reasons to feel optimistic, I think there are plenty of those reasons going into 2023.

I’d still like to see some further moves to strengthen the team.  



 

[Big Al]

I buy into this completely. Not to mention the mid season return of Means .  The coaches getting DL Hall up to his potential as a starter. And possible mid season infusions from Cowser, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby etc.

[owknows]

Welcome to the punch bowl... Been serving this Kool Aid the whole off-season.

Nice to have some company

(my only negative has been the addition of Frazier)

[emmett16]

8. Remaining moves and prospect capitol to acquire a difference making player before the season or at the deadline.

[Explosivo]

Yeah I think we make a trade at the deadline too potentially. Between Ortiz, norby, Westburg, Stowers, hays and Santander… my money is maybe hays and Ortiz. Sell high. Hays is interesting as he usually has a great first half and maybe we could carry that potential to a team who is looking for an outfielder. Santander is interesting too as his bat is special but he is limited defensively. Ortiz did turn it around with the bat but will that translate to the majors. Westburg and Norby’s bat are legit but their defense needs improvement. What a position to be in to have such a talent pool to really make a non desperate move. 

[MijiT88]

YES! Love to see this take, I have been perfectly fine with where we are sitting as far as moves made. I still think we might see a trade before the season that will have a positive impact on the ML club. This team is built to compete in every game this year, we may not have a high priced FA but we will play hard and win games! Thanks for joining the bandwagon!

[Sports Guy]

I think Frobby could post anything and people would “like it”

The case for 70 wins is easier than 90 wins imo.

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Frobby could post anything and people would “like it”

Maybe we could all learn from this.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m starting to build the case that the O’s could win 90+ games this year.   It requires a little positive thinking, but nothing too far-fetched, I hope.   Here are the building blocks for the case:

1.  The Adley Effect.   The team was 12 games over .500 (67-55) once Adley arrived.   Just extend that .549 winning percentage to 162 games and it gets you to 89 wins.  If instead you look at the team’s Pythagorean record after Adley arrived, it gets you to 85 wins.

2.  The Gunnar Effect.   It’s not just that Gunnar is a good player, but look where his at bats are likely coming from.  They’re mostly going to be coming from the at bats given last year to Nevin and Odor.   

3.  The Balanced Schedule.   The O’s ended up going 34-42 (.447) against the AL East, 49-37 (.570) against everyone else.  24 fewer games against the AL East should equate to about 3 more wins at those percentages.   

4.  The Marginal Offseason Upgrades.  This one is a bit subjective in that it depends whether you think that Gibson, Frazier and McCann are likely to bounce back from their relatively poor 2022 performances, and by how much.  But personally, I believe that Frazier will outperform 2022 Odor, and McCann will outperform 2022 Chirinos/Bemboom, and that Gibson will hold his own against 2022 Lyles and possibly outperform him.   I think those 3 plus Givens will improve the team by 2-4 wins.  

5. The Experience Factor.  A lot of guys got their first big league experience in 2022.   As a group, those players are likely to be better in 2023 now that they’ve gotten their feet wet.   

6.  Better Roster Construction.  Overall, I think this roster will be better constructed due to the positional flexibility of Gunnar and Frazier.   Lots of ways Hyde can make the pieces fit on a given day.   

7.  The Grayson Effect.  Saved this for the end because it’s risky to count too much on a rookie pitcher.    But he’s an upgrade - potentially, a huge one, but we’ll see about that in year one.  

So, that’s my case that this can be a 90+ win team.   Running counter to this: the likelihood of regression from several of the pitchers, and the likelihood of more injuries than in 2022 on offense.   Those things, if extreme enough, could put the team under .500.   But, as a fan who likes to go into a season with reasons to feel optimistic, I think there are plenty of those reasons going into 2023.

I’d still like to see some further moves to strengthen the team.  



 

Of course, I agree with the 7 points because I have made all those points.  I have predicted the O's win 92 in 2023.

[emmett16]

DL Hall is the wild card.  If he can harness his ability he moves the needle significantly.  

[connja]

The team is creating a huge dependency on many of the young players taking a step forward.  I don't think it's realistic to assume that all of our young guys, as talented as they are, will improve upon last year.  I think that is going to be required to be a playoff team.

[MijiT88]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Frobby could post anything and people would “like it”

The case for 70 wins is easier than 90 wins imo.

This is the home of positivity for the season, no negatives here. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Frobby could post anything and people would “like it”

The case for 70 wins is easier than 90 wins imo.

Awwww, SG is jealous…

If you had said the case for 75-80 wins was easier to make than 90+, I might have agreed with you.  I think the odds of going 13+ games backwards are much more remote than going 7+ forward IMO.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Awwww, SG is jealous…

If you had said the case for 75-80 wins was easier to make than 90+, I might have agreed with you.  I think the odds of going 13+ games backwards are much more remote than going 7+ forward IMO.

Nah, I’m good.

And I disagree especially since their pythag theorem was 79 wins iirc.

That said, I don’t trust a lot of what we saw in 2022 to carry over, with health being the #1 worry for me. 

Love the young talent but the poor way in which they have supplemented this roster has me worried. I think your #6 is wrong, especially if you are pointing out a declining, slow player that we shouldn’t want to rely on.

[oriole]

Optimist, yes. But not unrealistic either. I think everything really has to click and go right for this to happen though and that’s what is most worrisome. What if Rodriguez has another lat injury? There goes the only SP with upside higher than #3 at best. What if all the strides in the bullpen construction were a 2022 mirage? Bullpens, especially young bullpens, are not going to be consistent from year to year. 
 

I think the part about this offseason that has been the most aggravating is that this is a very good core of players. You look through the roster and there’s great defense at multiple positions, guys who can get on base, guys who can hit home runs, guys who can steal bases….it’s really time to spend money. If they’re not spending money now then they never will and that’s a hard pill to swallow for me. One or two proven and consistent veteran free agents and this could be a great team. Instead we’ve got to completely depend on unproven guys with lots of potential but no track record. As fans, we’re being played and I hate that. Once the season starts then I’ll be able to get over it quickly but man, if only ownership could commit to putting forth a reasonable pay roll and it’d be looking real good in Baltimore.