2023 18-game segment WAR & stats

[Frobby]

This my last "interim" report on how players did in the most recent 18-game segment.  The next segment ends on the final day of the season.

In the eighth 18-game segment, the O's went 13-5.  So that's 11-7, 12-6, 11-7, 11-7, 10-8, 11-7, 12-6 and 13-5 on the year.   Still very consistent.   Let's hope for one more really good segment to carry the O's into the playoffs! 

Cumulative rWAR leaders (segments in parentheses)

Gunnar Henderson 5.4 (-0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2) 

Adley Rutschman 3.4 (0.7, 0.3, 0.7, 0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.2)

Anthony Santander 3.4 (-0.4, 0.7, 0.3, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, -0.1, 1.0)

Cedric Mullins 2.8 (0.5, 0.2, 1.1, 0.0, 0.3, 0.2, -0.1, 0.6)

Austin Hays 2.1 (0.1, 0.0, 1.5, 0.6, 0.0, -0.5, 0.4, 0.6)

Cumulative fWAR leaders (segments in parentheses))

Gunnar Henderson  4.1 (-0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 1.1)

Adley Rutschman 3.2 (0.8, 0.5, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6)

Anthony Santander 2.8 (-0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.7, 0.1, 0.2, 0.8)

Austin Hays 2.2 (0.4, 0.0, 0.8, 0.8, 0.0, -0.6, 0.3, 0.5)

Cedric Mullins 1.9 ( (0.7, 0.4, 0.7, 0.0, 0.1, -0.1, -0.4, 0.5)

Biggest movers in the 8th segment

Gunnar Henderson 1.2 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR

Anthony Santander 1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR

Cedric Mullins 0.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Austin Hays 0.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Jordan Westburg 0.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Conclusion

The 8th segment was a great segment for the position players, with the team going 13-5 (best segment of the year) and the offense producing an .824 OPS and 6.61 runs/game.   Besides the players I mentioned above, Adley Rusteschman, Ramon Urias, Aaron Hicks, Adam Frazier and Ryan McKenna were all in positive territory in both rWAR and fWAR.  Only James McCann was down by both measures.  Jorge Mateo and Ryan Mountcastle were flat in rWAR and slightly up in fWAR, while Rylan O'Hearn was slightly down in rWAR but sightly up in fWAR.   So really, there was no significant drag on the many good performances, let by Gunnar's outstanding segment in which he played great on both sides of the ball.   I'd gladly take one last segement exactly like this one!

Sometime after the season is over, I'll write up some further details for the players not on the leaderboard, and some other details besides just rWAR and fWAR.   I've also been tracking Rdrs, UZR, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA.   

Edited September 14, 2023 by Frobby

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Gunnar Henderson 5.4 (-0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2) 

I'm gonna say a statistician would call a sequence like that signal and not noise.      The last 90 games are basically 5/9ths of a 9-win season.

With a couple big moments this weekend, and another ~1.2 WAR in the final 18-game segment, there might be a crack for him to make himself one of the three MVP finalists.      

Wins Above Replacement--all

1.	Ohtani • LAA	10.0
2.	Seager • TEX	6.6
3.	Semien • TEX	6.4
4.	Cole • NYY	6.3
5.	Rodríguez • SEA	5.7
6.	Henderson • BAL	5.4

 

[Frobby]

Here is a summary of the final 18-game segment of the year, during which the Orioles went 10-8.   They had a winning record in all 9 segments.

Cumulative rWAR leaders (segments in parentheses)

Gunnar Henderson 6.3 (-0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 0.9) 

Adley Rutschman 4.3 (0.7, 0.3, 0.7, 0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.2, 0.9)

Anthony Santander 3.0 (-0.4, 0.7, 0.3, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, -0.1, 1.0, -0.4)

Cedric Mullins 2.8 (0.5, 0.2, 1.1, 0.0, 0.3, 0.2, -0.1, 0.6, 0.0)

Austin Hays 2.6 (0.1, 0.0, 1.5, 0.6, 0.0, -0.5, 0.4, 0.6, -0.1)

Cumulative fWAR leaders (segments in parentheses)

Adley Rutschman 5.1 (0.8, 0.5, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 1.3)

Gunnar Henderson  4.6 (-0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 1.1, 0.5)

Anthony Santander 2.6 (-0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.7, 0.1, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2)

Austin Hays 2.2 (0.4, 0.0, 0.8, 0.8, 0.0, -0.6, 0.3, 0.5, 0.0)

Cedric Mullins 1.9 ( (0.7, 0.4, 0.7, 0.0, 0.1, -0.1, -0.4, 0.5, -0.1)

Biggest movers in the 9th segment

Adley Rutschman 0.9 rWAR, 1.3 fWAR

Gunnar Henderson 0.9 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Conclusion

The final segment wasn't a good one for the Orioles' position players.   It pretty much exactly coincided with the team's offensive slump that began after Game 1 of the St, Louis series (this segment started in game 3 of that series).  Only Adley and Gunnar were positive in both rWAR and fWAR in this period, though a few others were slightly positive by one measure or the other.  Basically, the team managed a 10-8 record to close the season on the backs of its two stars (especially Adley) and strong performances by the pitchers.   

On the season, Adley was the only player on the team who had positive rWAR and fWAR in all 9 segments of the season.  Gunnar was negative in the first segment of the year, but positive in every segment after that.

In addition to tracking rWAR and fWAR, I also was tracking OPS, Rds, UZR, wOBA and xwOBA for each segment.  That data is too dense to post all in one place.  What I plan to do is gradually post each player's 9-segment performance in all these categories in that player's thread, with some commentary.   But it's pretty interesting even just to scan the rWAR and fWAR numbers above and appreciate how the players have many ups and downs during the year.

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Frobby