Dylan Cease

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Out of a 5 year career, he's had an ERA of 4 or worse 4 out of those 5 seasons. I am rounding a 3.91 ERA to a 4 because .09 decimals doesn't make any difference to me.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml

lol..well first of all, that’s dumb…secondly, that’s not the only measure of whether someone is good or not unless you are 75 years old and don’t know that other stats exist.

[Billy F-Face3]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol..well first of all, that’s dumb…secondly, that’s not the only measure of whether someone is good or not unless you are 75 years old and don’t know that other stats exist.

Well for starters, his WHIP is below average as well. The bottom line.... He's over rated. That's the point. You even agreed as much the first time you quoted me.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Well for starters, his WHIP is below average as well. The bottom line.... He's over rated. That's the point. You even agreed as much the first time you quoted me.

Overrated and not good are 2 different things.

 

[Malike]

I'm not particularly interested in Cease, I'm not a huge fan of a lot of his statcast numbers. If the target is Robert Jr. then I'd rather just pay what he costs and not double down on what Cease would cost in addition.

[Too Tall]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol..well first of all, that’s dumb…secondly, that’s not the only measure of whether someone is good or not unless you are 75 years old and don’t know that other stats exist.

Please watch your generalizations. I'm well over 75 and may not be the brightest light bulb in this room, but I am aware of other stats as I am sure others of my generation are as well. 

[Chicago White Sox]

22 hours ago, sevastras said:

I wouldn’t trade Krerstad straight up for Cease.  What are people obsession with him? One amazing year and a new shiny toy? 

One amazing year?  Cease put up the 8th most fWAR amongst starting pitchers from 2021 to 2023?  Everyone else in his company is considered a legit ace.  During that same period, he has a top four K rate, which highlights how dominant his stuff is.  Cease’s big problem has been command problems at times, but he’s proven to be incredibly effective despite that wildness.

Yes, his 2023 was a down year relative to his standards, but a poor ERA doesn’t really tell the whole story.  His 3.7 fWAR reflects the fact his core peripherals were still good and not radically different from his previous two years, but that a tough home ballpark and a terrible defense hurt his ERA.  The latter is highly important to call out because metrics like bWAR don’t capture the impact of poor defense.

Having said that, I won’t sit here and pretend that fWAR is the end all be all, although it’s a much better predictor of future performance than bWAR.  The reality is his fastball was down a tick and more importantly his slider was simply not as effective as it was in 2022.  The spin rate on it was more or less the same, but his release point on it was different and so was the shape and location.  People were chasing it less because he too far out of the zone.

Despite his struggles with the slider last year, there was a ton of interest in him at the deadline because most front offices view the previous Sox front office as being highly incompetent and behind the times when it comes to analytics and biometrics.  Just look at how quickly the Dodgers were able to turn Lance Lynn around.  I’m not a pitching expert by any means, but Dylan is a very cerebral player and his issues last year appeared to be mechanical.  I think if the Sox were more realistic with their ask, he almost certainly would have been traded as very few arms have the ceiling he possesses along with the ability to go six every night.

And I know how annoying it is when an opposing fan comes to another team’s message board and tells people they’re undervaluing a guy but that is clearly happening here quite a bit.  Don’t get me wrong, we aren’t getting Holiday for Cease (which I believe we were asking for at the deadline), but a package would certainly hurt and would need to be lead by a legit blue chipper plus a really good second piece.  And it doesn’t really matter what the trade calculator says.  It’s a fun tool, but it’s only as good as its inputs and they are really hit or miss.

For me, I wouldn’t take anything less than Mayo and say Ortiz and that second piece doesn’t make me feel all that great when you factor in normal bust rates and the lack of immediate success from many of your prospects.  And while Mayo has a super intriguing package of offensive tools, his lack of a clear defensive position does take a tiny bit of shine off him.  That being said, I can see how this would be viewed as a fair trade for both sides, although I feel like that will be a very unpopular opinion here.

[Billy F-Face3]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Overrated and not good are 2 different things.

 

Please point out some where I specifically wrote "not good". 

Saying he only had 1 good year and saying he is "not good" are 2 totally different things. Zero Sum logic is ignorant.

[waroriole]

I wouldn’t trade Mayo and Ortiz for Cease. But I appreciate your insight. 

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One amazing year?  Cease put up the 8th most fWAR amongst starting pitchers from 2021 to 2023?  Everyone else in his company is considered a legit ace.  During that same period, he has a top four K rate, which highlights how dominant his stuff is.  Cease’s big problem has been command problems at times, but he’s proven to be incredibly effective despite that wildness.

Yes, his 2023 was a down year relative to his standards, but a poor ERA doesn’t really tell the whole story.  His 3.7 fWAR reflects the fact his core peripherals were still good and not radically different from his previous two years, but that a tough home ballpark and a terrible defense hurt his ERA.  The latter is highly important to call out because metrics like bWAR don’t capture the impact of poor defense.

Having said that, I won’t sit here and pretend that fWAR is the end all be all, although it’s a much better predictor of future performance than bWAR.  The reality is his fastball was down a tick and more importantly his slider was simply not as effective as it was in 2022.  The spin rate on it was more or less the same, but his release point on it was different and so was the shape and location.  People were chasing it less because he too far out of the zone.

Despite his struggles with the slider last year, there was a ton of interest in him at the deadline because most front offices view the previous Sox front office as being highly incompetent and behind the times when it comes to analytics and biometrics.  Just look at how quickly the Dodgers were able to turn Lance Lynn around.  I’m not a pitching expert by any means, but Dylan is a very cerebral player and his issues last year appeared to be mechanical.  I think if the Sox were more realistic with their ask, he almost certainly would have been traded as very few arms have the ceiling he possesses along with the ability to go six every night.

And I know how annoying it is when an opposing fan comes to another team’s message board and tells people they’re undervaluing a guy but that is clearly happening here quite a bit.  Don’t get me wrong, we aren’t getting Holiday for Cease (which I believe we were asking for at the deadline), but a package would certainly hurt and would need to be lead by a legit blue chipper plus a really good second piece.  And it doesn’t really matter what the trade calculator says.  It’s a fun tool, but it’s only as good as its inputs and they are really hit or miss.

For me, I wouldn’t take anything less than Mayo and say Ortiz and that second piece doesn’t make me feel all that great when you factor in normal bust rates and the lack of immediate success from many of your prospects.  And while Mayo has a super intriguing package of offensive tools, his lack of a clear defensive position does take a tiny bit of shine off him.  That being said, I can see how this would be viewed as a fair trade for both sides, although I feel like that will be a very unpopular opinion here.

Lynn's FIP with the Dodgers was 6.16 and his K rate plummeted. There is a big difference between 2022 and 2023 Cease. 

[Pickles]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One amazing year?  Cease put up the 8th most fWAR amongst starting pitchers from 2021 to 2023?  Everyone else in his company is considered a legit ace.  During that same period, he has a top four K rate, which highlights how dominant his stuff is.  Cease’s big problem has been command problems at times, but he’s proven to be incredibly effective despite that wildness.

Yes, his 2023 was a down year relative to his standards, but a poor ERA doesn’t really tell the whole story.  His 3.7 fWAR reflects the fact his core peripherals were still good and not radically different from his previous two years, but that a tough home ballpark and a terrible defense hurt his ERA.  The latter is highly important to call out because metrics like bWAR don’t capture the impact of poor defense.

Having said that, I won’t sit here and pretend that fWAR is the end all be all, although it’s a much better predictor of future performance than bWAR.  The reality is his fastball was down a tick and more importantly his slider was simply not as effective as it was in 2022.  The spin rate on it was more or less the same, but his release point on it was different and so was the shape and location.  People were chasing it less because he too far out of the zone.

Despite his struggles with the slider last year, there was a ton of interest in him at the deadline because most front offices view the previous Sox front office as being highly incompetent and behind the times when it comes to analytics and biometrics.  Just look at how quickly the Dodgers were able to turn Lance Lynn around.  I’m not a pitching expert by any means, but Dylan is a very cerebral player and his issues last year appeared to be mechanical.  I think if the Sox were more realistic with their ask, he almost certainly would have been traded as very few arms have the ceiling he possesses along with the ability to go six every night.

And I know how annoying it is when an opposing fan comes to another team’s message board and tells people they’re undervaluing a guy but that is clearly happening here quite a bit.  Don’t get me wrong, we aren’t getting Holiday for Cease (which I believe we were asking for at the deadline), but a package would certainly hurt and would need to be lead by a legit blue chipper plus a really good second piece.  And it doesn’t really matter what the trade calculator says.  It’s a fun tool, but it’s only as good as its inputs and they are really hit or miss.

For me, I wouldn’t take anything less than Mayo and say Ortiz and that second piece doesn’t make me feel all that great when you factor in normal bust rates and the lack of immediate success from many of your prospects.  And while Mayo has a super intriguing package of offensive tools, his lack of a clear defensive position does take a tiny bit of shine off him.  That being said, I can see how this would be viewed as a fair trade for both sides, although I feel like that will be a very unpopular opinion here.

Good post.  Always good to get the outside perspective.

Seems as if RZNJ's initial ask was pretty accurate from the White Sox' perspective.

I would not make that trade from the Orioles perspective.

As a counter: Would you accept Westburg as a headliner?  I'm assuming no.

[Oriole1940]

1 hour ago, Too Tall said:

Please watch your generalizations. I'm well over 75 and may not be the brightest light bulb in this room, but I am aware of other stats as I am sure others of my generation are as well. 

Yes,  I am way over 75 and  some get better with age, like a good wine.

[Chicago White Sox]

54 minutes ago, Malike said:

Lynn's FIP with the Dodgers was 6.16 and his K rate plummeted. There is a big difference between 2022 and 2023 Cease. 

Good call on Lynn.  He started off pretty well with the Dodgers, but clearly that didn’t last long and admittedly I was more or less checked out by that point of the season.  I will maintain the point though, the Sox are one of the least modern orgs and teams are very much aware of this.

Regarding Cease, his peripherals weren’t radically different from prior seasons.

K Rate | BB Rate | HR Rate

• 2021: 12.28 | 3.69 | 1.09
• 2022: 11.10 | 3.82 | 0.78
• 2023: 10.88 | 4.02 | 0.97

Again, his issue last year was a slider that went from truly elite to just ok.  He still got plenty of K’s and ranked 18th amongst pitchers in fWAR, but there was lot more hard contact off of him as a result of his out pitch being far less productive.

At the end of the day, the real question with him is whether his elite slider will come back or not.  If it does, he’s one of the best starters in baseball.  If not, he’s still a top of the rotation starter who can eat 180 innings, but is not a legit ace.  I personally think the 2024 version will be closer to his 2022 form as the dude is dedicated to his craft and will likely try to get his mechanics back in place.  I think being in a more modern org would only improve those odds.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good call on Lynn.  He started off pretty well with the Dodgers, but clearly that didn’t last long and admittedly I was more or less checked out by that point of the season.  I will maintain the point though, the Sox are one of the least modern orgs and teams are very much aware of this.

Regarding Cease, his peripherals weren’t radically different from prior seasons.

K Rate | BB Rate | HR Rate

• 2021: 12.28 | 3.69 | 1.09
• 2022: 11.10 | 3.82 | 0.78
• 2023: 10.88 | 4.02 | 0.97

Again, his issue last year was a slider that went from truly elite to just ok.  He still got plenty of K’s and ranked 18th amongst pitchers in fWAR, but there was lot more hard contact off of him as a result of his out pitch being far less productive.

At the end of the day, the real question with him is whether his elite slider will come back or not.  If it does, he’s one of the best starters in baseball.  If not, he’s still a top of the rotation starter who can eat 180 innings, but is not a legit ace.  I personally think the 2024 version will be closer to his 2022 form as the dude is dedicated to his craft and will likely try to get his mechanics back in place.  I think being in a more modern org would only improve those odds.

I honestly don't know how he's going to project out. Currently, through his statcast data, 2022 is the outlier. 2021 was much closer to 2023. He strikes a bunch of guys out but his K rate has been trending down for 3 straight years. He's likely going to be a solid pitcher, but I don't think he's going to be an Ace and I'd hate for the org to pay Ace prices for him.

[Chicago White Sox]

50 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Good post.  Always good to get the outside perspective.

Seems as if RZNJ's initial ask was pretty accurate from the White Sox' perspective.

I would not make that trade from the Orioles perspective.

As a counter: Would you accept Westburg as a headliner?  I'm assuming no.

Thanks.  As for Westburg, I do like him, but I wouldn’t center a Cease trade around him.  Don’t see an elite carrying tool with him like Mayo’s power.  If I couldn’t get a stronger centerpiece from the Orioles, I’d look elsewhere.  Prospects just bust too frequently and Westberg as the headliner makes worry there is a real we end up empty-handed.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Thanks.  As for Westburg, I do like him, but I wouldn’t center a Cease trade around him.  Don’t see an elite carrying tool with him like Mayo’s power.  If I couldn’t get a stronger centerpiece from the Orioles, I’d look elsewhere.  Prospects just bust too frequently and Westberg as the headliner makes worry there is a real we end up empty-handed.

Totally agree with this. Westburg isn't a front-liner for a lot of teams looking to trade real talent.