Fangraphs 2024 positional power rankings

[Frobby]

Fangraphs is starting its annual positional power rankings series, and unsurprisingly, the O’s rank no. 1 at catcher, at a projected 5.3 fWAR.  

“Throughout the entirety of his amateur and professional career, Adley Rutschman has done nothing but produce. The first-overall-pick-turned-top-prospect has looked like a big league natural from day one, posting consecutive five-win seasons to begin his career and lapping the field in projected WAR at the position by more than a full win. Among primary catchers with at least 400 plate appearances last year, Rutschman had the lowest chase rate, second-lowest swinging strike rate, and highest OBP, commanding the strike zone like a seasoned veteran. His preternatural feel for the game is also seen on defense, where he’s put up stellar numbers while helping to facilitate the breakouts of pitchers like Kyle Bradish and Yennier Cano. 

“With someone as good as Rutschman starting three-quarters of the time, the Orioles are under less pressure to get great results out of the backup catcher position. James McCann has never been a huge offensive performer, but he can occasionally string together a few extra-base hits. His framing has also improved over the past few years, now profiling as average or even a tad better.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

[Say O!]

Adley is such an advantage.  Magnitude of 2-4 wins compared to rest of ALEast (I don’t buy the TOR projections for Kirk/Jansen).

[Frobby]

1B: 15th, 1.8 fWAR

“Baltimore’s all-Ryan platoon features the lefty-swinging O’Hearn and the righty Mountcastle, a pair of similarly productive free swingers with plenty of power. After five seasons of diminishing returns with the Royals, O’Hearn reworked his stance to close up some holes in his swing and hit .289/.322/.480 (118 wRC+ with 14 homers in just 368 PA, only 29 of which came against lefties. The O’s will also try to squeeze him into the lineup in the outfield corners. Mountcastle hit .270/.328/.452 (114 wRC+) with 18 homers and a walk rate about double that of O’Hearn’s (7.9% vs. 4.1%). A 30-grade defender as an infield prospect, he’s developed into a capably average first baseman according to the metrics, and figures to pick up additional time at DH.

“Mayo is a big 22-year-old righty who just placed 23rd on our Top 100 Prospects list, a third baseman with 70-grade raw power but a lack of mobility that will lead to a position change; he played 28 games at first in Double- and Triple-A but could get a look in right field, where he can take advantage of his 70-grade arm.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-first-base/

[Pickles]

2B.  Orioles come in at 14.  Here's the write-up.  Holliday projected at 280 PA and 1.2 WAR.

Personally, I'd take the over on both pretty significantly.

SS projections have not been released; it will be interesting to see how much time at SS they project for Holliday.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

Ooh, shiny! The best prospect in baseball gets a lackluster projection, but as you can imagine, the error bars here are considerable. ZiPS and Steamer are understandably restrained in their guesses for rookies because plenty of them struggle in their first bite at the major league apple. Holliday certainly looks like a stud, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a top hitter right away, even if his long-term prognosis is blindingly bright.

 

Luckily for the O’s, they have a nice contingency plan. Westburg might be too good of a hitter to profile as a utility infielder long-term, but in 2024, he’ll rotate between second and third depending on which of the team’s other precocious youngsters click immediately. We actually project second, third, and short to all be time-shares for the O’s, with Holliday, Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson shuttling around the three spots. Urías fits into the mix as well, though likely with the least playing time out of the four.

The top farm system in baseball could complicate matters; Coby Mayo needs somewhere to play too, and that might be third base. That puts a squeeze on second indirectly. In my mind, though, Westburg is a great bet for above-average production, and Holliday is going to get a full season of playing time even if he starts slow. It’s a tough puzzle to solve, but also a rewarding one; there aren’t many wrong answers here.

Edited March 19 by Pickles

[btdart20]

Top 2 C looks right.

1B looks fair to me as well.  No better than 14, no lower than 17.  Seems about right.

2B - I'd say there a broader range of potential outcomes.  Upside path could be top 8-10 with 18ish being the floor.  

 

[Say O!]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Top 2 C looks right.

1B looks fair to me as well.  No better than 14, no lower than 17.  Seems about right.

2B - I'd say there a broader range of potential outcomes.  Upside path could be top 8-10 with 18ish being the floor.  

 

More potential for upside than downside, and not only offensive where projections for Holliday and Westburg arguably conservative, but also defensively for Holliday is neutral whereas he may be much better than that at 2B. 

[Frobby]

2.9 fWAR projection for 6 different O’s players manning 2B.

[spleen1015]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2.9 fWAR projection for 6 different O’s players manning 2B.

Pfft. Holliday gets twice that all on his own.

[btdart20]

19 minutes ago, Say O! said:

More potential for upside than downside, and not only offensive where projections for Holliday and Westburg arguably conservative, but also defensively for Holliday is neutral whereas he may be much better than that at 2B. 

Agreed.  We have a solid floor at 2B. Finishing above 8th would be awesome and in the realm of possibilitie.  But hard to project up there though. 

10-17 look muddled to me.  With most reams relying on one guy to do what they've done or get a little better.  And Arraez/MIA should be grouped in that mix too IMO.  Even if Westburg/Urias/Norby are the 2Bs, that's still where I'd put the O's.  

Obviously, Holliday's adjustment is a big X factor that raises the roof.

[Frobby]

The O’s come in 5th at SS at 4.5 fWAR, built on an assumption that Gunnar will start there 56% of the time, Holliday 25%, Mateo 18%, Maton 1%.

“These power rankings can get fun when there’s uncertainty about how the various teams will line up, but shortstop looks like an extremely stable position. Out of the top 17 teams on the list, I count two, maybe three, where there’s any uncertainty over who the starter will be. In Baltimore’s case, it’s not because of a lack of faith in Henderson, who’s the reigning AL Rookie of the Year. Nothing about that campaign (.255/.325/.489, 123 wRC+, 4.6 WAR) indicates anything other than a bright future at the position.

“The question is this: When Jackson Holliday gets worked into the lineup, where will he play? He could settle in a second base, which would give Baltimore one of the best double play combinations in the baseball for the rest of the 2020s, to say nothing of leading the league in luxuriant blond coiffure. Or the no. 1 prospect in baseball could displace Henderson to third and claim shortstop for himself. And spare a thought for poor Mateo, who put up 2.9 WAR himself just two seasons ago. He’ll be a heck of a backup.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

 

Edited March 20 by Frobby

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The O’s come in 5th at SS at 4.5 fWAR, built on an assumption that Gunnar will start there 56% of the time, Holliday 25%, Mateo 18%, Maton 1%.

“These power rankings can get fun when there’s uncertainty about how the various teams will line up, but shortstop looks like an extremely stable position. Out of the top 17 teams on the list, I count two, maybe three, where there’s any uncertainty over who the starter will be. In Baltimore’s case, it’s not because of a lack of faith in Henderson, who’s the reigning AL Rookie of the Year. Nothing about that campaign (.255/.325/.489, 123 wRC+, 4.6 WAR) indicates anything other than a bright future at the position.

“The question is this: When Jackson Holliday gets worked into the lineup, where will he play? He could settle in a second base, which would give Baltimore one of the best double play combinations in the baseball for the rest of the 2020s, to say nothing of leading the league in luxuriant blond coiffure. Or the no. 1 prospect in baseball could displace Henderson to third and claim shortstop for himself. And spare a thought for poor Mateo, who put up 2.9 WAR himself just two seasons ago. He’ll be a heck of a backup.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

 

Do you mean to tell me Mateo isn't a useless piece of garbage?

[Philip]

Grr if Mateo is going to be a heck of a backup for us, couldn’t he be a heck of a starter for someone else?

 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Grr if Mateo is going to be a heck of a backup for us, couldn’t he be a heck of a starter for someone else?

 

I don't really think the Orioles have any interest in trading or releasing Mateo. I think he's going to replace McKenna this year basically because he's more valuable than McKenna with his speed and ability to play both SS + CF. 

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The O’s come in 5th at SS at 4.5 fWAR, built on an assumption that Gunnar will start there 56% of the time, Holliday 25%, Mateo 18%, Maton 1%.

“These power rankings can get fun when there’s uncertainty about how the various teams will line up, but shortstop looks like an extremely stable position. Out of the top 17 teams on the list, I count two, maybe three, where there’s any uncertainty over who the starter will be. In Baltimore’s case, it’s not because of a lack of faith in Henderson, who’s the reigning AL Rookie of the Year. Nothing about that campaign (.255/.325/.489, 123 wRC+, 4.6 WAR) indicates anything other than a bright future at the position.

“The question is this: When Jackson Holliday gets worked into the lineup, where will he play? He could settle in a second base, which would give Baltimore one of the best double play combinations in the baseball for the rest of the 2020s, to say nothing of leading the league in luxuriant blond coiffure. Or the no. 1 prospect in baseball could displace Henderson to third and claim shortstop for himself. And spare a thought for poor Mateo, who put up 2.9 WAR himself just two seasons ago. He’ll be a heck of a backup.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

 

Last year one of the larger position player discrepancies in fWAR/bWAR was Gunnar at 4.6 fWAR/6.2 bWAR.  The difference due to defensive metrics where UZR (fangraphs preferred metric) showed average whereas DRS (bb-ref preferred metric) showed above average/elite SS defense from Gunnar, which largely stemmed from his arm and double plays.

Based on spring training and second half of last season, it appears that Gunnar will be exclusively SS in 2024.  With his combination of offense and defense, he could very well finish as the highest WAR shortstop in baseball.  Seager seems to be injured quite often, Turner and Lindor on the wrong side of 30, and Witt is on lousy KC team. 

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Last year one of the larger position player discrepancies in fWAR/bWAR was Gunnar at 4.6 fWAR/6.2 bWAR.  The difference due to defensive metrics where UZR (fangraphs preferred metric) showed average whereas DRS (bb-ref preferred metric) showed above average/elite SS defense from Gunnar, which largely stemmed from his arm and double plays.

Based on spring training and second half of last season, it appears that Gunnar will be exclusively SS in 2024.  With his combination of offense and defense, he could very well finish as the highest WAR shortstop in baseball.  Seager seems to be injured quite often, Turner and Lindor on the wrong side of 30, and Witt is on lousy KC team. 

Witt vs Gunnar will be fun to watch. If Gunnar can keep it close on offense, his defense could win him the WAR battle. I predict Gunnar's timeshare to be closer to 75% barring injury with Holliday and Westburg this year crowding the 2B/3B spots along with Urias. Mateo made sense to platoon at SS when Frazier is your 9th guy, but not when it's Westburg/Urias.