The 2024 Trade Deadline

[casadeozo]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree you don't want to go overboard, especially on rentals who will be gone after two months. However, within reason you do what you can to give yourself the best chance. Arguably Texas did go all in by signing Degrom. 

Ya to me free agency is different. I'd argue signing Burnes to a heave free agency contract will probably not age well but if we do that the only real cost will be the contract itself (and maybe limit  how many extensions we can offer to our position players)

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree you don't want to go overboard, especially on rentals who will be gone after two months. However, within reason you do what you can to give yourself the best chance. Arguably Texas did go all in by signing Degrom. 

Along with the trades that they made at the deadline. Even though one of them (in Scherzer) didn't work out, but Montgomery did.

[Just Regular]

I believe as champions TEX will be the very last of the gray area AL teams to fold.     They are for me the team likeliest to still buy even if they are 5 games out of the last wildcard on 7/30.

[casadeozo]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is that the best model to pattern after? The outlier?

Elias does not and should not ever have to go "all in on one season". I've never been sure what that realistically looks like other than a fear mantra that was created by someone who is so attached to the notion that the O's must retain every prospect in order to fulfill some kind of fan fantasy of having an "all homegrown team". Rubenstein should and MUST offer the necessary support to Elias in order to sustain winning. When I hear "hands off" I hear uninterested and uninvolved which is not what I have observed from Rubenstein who has been at EVERY SINGLE GAME that I have attended this year. "Hands off" to me seems to be the opposite of Rubenstein and not desirable at all. IMO great orgs/companies/teams need great leadership from the top.

Also, there can realistically be no repeat of the Duquette years. That org/administration never had a firm foundation and the success was always built on a house of cards. It always felt we arrived at competitive/good by accident.

Lastly, I have NEVER EVER said anything close to "prospects be damned". But I don't it will serve us will to be dogmatic about any singular approach. True genius is in the ability to adapt. We will have a limited ceiling like (Tampa Bay Rays/Guardians) if we are going to limit ourselves to being a prospect only/homegrown team.

Rubenstein being at the games and giving out hats has ZERO to do with pressuring the front office to make a knee-jerk decision based off of an injury to Bradish and trying to win it all in 2024. Hes literally said he was taking this year to get to know the workings of the organization.

We can mostly all agree Basallo and Mayo are likely not getting traded, so let's get back to talking about realistic targets. 

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I know you and I have our different viewpoints and have our fair share of running disagreements. But I respect you opinion(s) believe it or not.

Question - Let's just say (I'm not saying this will happen) but if we were to re-sign Santander to a 3-4 year market contract (I would argue we can more than afford since we are literally paying NO ONE). If that were to happen, doesn't that make one of Mayo or Basallo expendable? I say Santander because he is the kind of player (who is not a star) but you can project extracting value from him. Because in any era where counting stats are a little devalued, he gives you consistent home runs and rbis but not much OBP and some of his statcast numbers aren't that great. Plus he's a historical slow starter and a very streaky hitter, but he gives you that clutch/big game element as well. Is it possible that he is a late bloomer along the lines of say a Nelson Cruz/David Ortiz (obviously not as good as Ortiz)?

Just something to think/talk about...

You do know why they were 'late bloomers', correct? 

It's not something that happens naturally, or that you should bet on.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

You do know why they were 'late bloomers', correct? 

It's not something that happens naturally, or that you should bet on.  

Unless your Pat Hoberg.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I know you and I have our different viewpoints and have our fair share of running disagreements. But I respect you opinion(s) believe it or not.

Question - Let's just say (I'm not saying this will happen) but if we were to re-sign Santander to a 3-4 year market contract (I would argue we can more than afford since we are literally paying NO ONE). If that were to happen, doesn't that make one of Mayo or Basallo expendable? I say Santander because he is the kind of player (who is not a star) but you can project extracting value from him. Because in any era where counting stats are a little devalued, he gives you consistent home runs and rbis but not much OBP and some of his statcast numbers aren't that great. Plus he's a historical slow starter and a very streaky hitter, but he gives you that clutch/big game element as well. Is it possible that he is a late bloomer along the lines of say a Nelson Cruz/David Ortiz (obviously not as good as Ortiz)?

Just something to think/talk about...

You can think about it.  I’m fine in my belief that Elias will not trade Basallo.   This is not me saying they can’t trade Basallo.   This is me telling you that Elias isn’t going to trade Basallo.

Basallo is expendable even if they don’t sign Santander.   That doesn’t make it a good idea to do it.   Signing a soon to be 30 yo Santander for 3-4 years so you feel comfortable trading a 19 yo top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball doesn’t seem like an “always keeping one eye on the long term” Elias type of move.   Joey Ortiz and Hall were a different level of expendable.

[Sports Guy]

As of today, there are 5teams that i think are definite sellers...the Rockies, Marlins, A's, White Sox and Angels

Best relievers amongst those teams:

Andrew Nardi: ERA is over 5 but FIP is under 3.  His statcast numbers are solid.  His K rate is over 10 and his BB rate is 2.4.  He was good last year.  Lefty reliever

Tanner Scott: We all know about Scott.  His ERA is under 2 now.  The K rate has jumped up to almost 10 but the walk rate is 6.5.  His statcast page is also excellent.

Estevez:  LA closer.  Good K rate, great walk rate. xERA 2.66. Statcast page is good in some areas but he also allows a lot of hard hit balls.

Luis Garcia:  Very good K rate, solid BB rate.  Statcast numbers aren't bad but like Estevez, he can give up some hard contract.  xERA is over 4 but FIP is 3.58, much better than his actual ERA.  Should see improvement.

Kopech:  Has been a favorite of mine but admittingly its based off of what he did as a reliever in 2021 and the idea that getting him here will make a big impact. There isn't much to point to about him outside of his ability to get Ks and miss bats.  Everything else is below average to awful. This would need to be something that the Os see in him that they think they can fix.  He has some of he best stuff in the sport.

Obviously we know about Mason Miller.  He is the best of the bunch but I wouldn't pay what it will likely cost to get him.  Erceg is hurt.

 

As I have talked about before, Nardi would be my target. I think hes the best of the bunch and being left handed is a bonus.  The 5+ ERA he has will hopefully allow the Os to get him cheaper too. 

 

But I would target any of these guys and I believe we need at least 2 new relievers.

[24fps]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would be shocked if Elias traded Basallo, Mayo, or Holliday.   I don’t think it’s happening.  I’m tempted to say zero chance of that happening.

I would be shocked if Basallo, Mayo or Holliday were traded in a bad deal, but it's shaping up like the O's are going to need some front office help.  How much remains to be seen, but we all know it can get expensive.

[casadeozo]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As of today, there are 5teams that i think are definite sellers...the Rockies, Marlins, A's, White Sox and Angels

Best relievers amongst those teams:

Andrew Nardi: ERA is over 5 but FIP is under 3.  His statcast numbers are solid.  His K rate is over 10 and his BB rate is 2.4.  He was good last year.  Lefty reliever

Tanner Scott: We all know about Scott.  His ERA is under 2 now.  The K rate has jumped up to almost 10 but the walk rate is 6.5.  His statcast page is also excellent.

Estevez:  LA closer.  Good K rate, great walk rate. xERA 2.66. Statcast page is good in some areas but he also allows a lot of hard hit balls.

Luis Garcia:  Very good K rate, solid BB rate.  Statcast numbers aren't bad but like Estevez, he can give up some hard contract.  xERA is over 4 but FIP is 3.58, much better than his actual ERA.  Should see improvement.

Kopech:  Has been a favorite of mine but admittingly its based off of what he did as a reliever in 2021 and the idea that getting him here will make a big impact. There isn't much to point to about him outside of his ability to get Ks and miss bats.  Everything else is below average to awful. This would need to be something that the Os see in him that they think they can fix.  He has some of he best stuff in the sport.

Obviously we know about Mason Miller.  He is the best of the bunch but I wouldn't pay what it will likely cost to get him.  Erceg is hurt.

 

As I have talked about before, Nardi would be my target. I think hes the best of the bunch and being left handed is a bonus.  The 5+ ERA he has will hopefully allow the Os to get him cheaper too. 

 

But I would target any of these guys and I believe we need at least 2 new relievers.

Whats a realistic offer we could make for Nardi?

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Rubenstein being at the games and giving out hats has ZERO to do with pressuring the front office to make a knee-jerk decision based off of an injury to Bradish and trying to win it all in 2024. Hes literally said he was taking this year to get to know the workings of the organization.

We can mostly all agree Basallo and Mayo are likely not getting traded, so let's get back to talking about realistic targets. 

Actually we don't have a blueprint of what Elias will do.  He has only been in one competitive playoff race.  I don't think he calculated the O's odds were good enough in 2022 to spend resources.  He spent minimally last year.  The picks spent for Flaherty are likely to never be ML regulars.  At some point, Elias will attempt to strengthen the rotation and bullpen.  If that involves a TOR starter, it will likely have to include one of the prized 3.  If Elias is giving up one of them, there will be multiple years of control involved. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Rubenstein being at the games and giving out hats has ZERO to do with pressuring the front office to make a knee-jerk decision based off of an injury to Bradish and trying to win it all in 2024. Hes literally said he was taking this year to get to know the workings of the organization.

We can mostly all agree Basallo and Mayo are likely not getting traded, so let's get back to talking about realistic targets. 

When did I say Rubenstien should or would pressure the front office to make knee jerk reactions? 

I don't know where the Basallo rumors came from. But I will say Bob Nightengale is pretty plugged in and typically doesn't make stuff up.

Lastly, you can discuss whatever you want. Feel free. But know I am going to discuss what I want as well.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Whats a realistic offer we could make for Nardi?

So many options.  They aren't going to give him away as he has 4 more years of service time but its not like it should take a guy like Kjerstad either.

But guys like Stowers, Norby and Beavers may have to be in the deal.  But there are a ton of possibilities.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As of today, there are 5teams that i think are definite sellers...the Rockies, Marlins, A's, White Sox and Angels

Best relievers amongst those teams:

Andrew Nardi: ERA is over 5 but FIP is under 3.  His statcast numbers are solid.  His K rate is over 10 and his BB rate is 2.4.  He was good last year.  Lefty reliever

Tanner Scott: We all know about Scott.  His ERA is under 2 now.  The K rate has jumped up to almost 10 but the walk rate is 6.5.  His statcast page is also excellent.

Estevez:  LA closer.  Good K rate, great walk rate. xERA 2.66. Statcast page is good in some areas but he also allows a lot of hard hit balls.

Luis Garcia:  Very good K rate, solid BB rate.  Statcast numbers aren't bad but like Estevez, he can give up some hard contract.  xERA is over 4 but FIP is 3.58, much better than his actual ERA.  Should see improvement.

Kopech:  Has been a favorite of mine but admittingly its based off of what he did as a reliever in 2021 and the idea that getting him here will make a big impact. There isn't much to point to about him outside of his ability to get Ks and miss bats.  Everything else is below average to awful. This would need to be something that the Os see in him that they think they can fix.  He has some of he best stuff in the sport.

Obviously we know about Mason Miller.  He is the best of the bunch but I wouldn't pay what it will likely cost to get him.  Erceg is hurt.

 

As I have talked about before, Nardi would be my target. I think hes the best of the bunch and being left handed is a bonus.  The 5+ ERA he has will hopefully allow the Os to get him cheaper too. 

 

But I would target any of these guys and I believe we need at least 2 new relievers.

I'm good with all of these guys except Kopech who I just sort of feel like is basically Bryan Baker. 

I think we can help this bullpen without even trading from the Kjerstad/Norby tier. I think those guys will be utilized for a SP or just kept. 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You do know why they were 'late bloomers', correct? 

It's not something that happens naturally, or that you should bet on.  

I suspect Ortiz and probably Cruz had some substances that were foreign to their bodies that boosted their performance. But there are super labs (especially in the DR) that are dedicated to that kind of thing. And we don't know with certainty who is taking what (whether legal or not).

I'm most certainly not accusing Anthony Santander of anything. But I am stating that I see nothing in what he is doing offensively to suggest there is any fall off or slow down coming.