Jake Arrieta Game Discussion

[QBsILLEST1]

Im glad that Jake is getting abck into his rhythm, I figured he would, but was beginning to grow concerned. He had a very good night overall and cant wait to get him up to Baltimore. And the delaying of the service clock may not be the #1 priority of th FO if they plan on signing them long term. I wonder if we would end up locking up all these kids or what? Im sure some are gonna end up FA's....

[RVAbird]

Sorry, I wasn't making any assumptions on where you stood. I was just trying to express my opinion as completely as I could. Concerning the second paragraph... depending on how it plays out, I might agree with you. But for the sake of discussion, let me play devil's advocate.

Suppose you're going with Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Guthrie, and Hernandez. Arrieta gives you reason to think he could do better than one or more of those five right now (beginning of 2010 season). Of course you never know for sure, and you're pretty happy with how those other five look. Suppose there's no obvious DFA candidates on the 40-man roster anymore. (Right now, there are. But by then, there might not be.) Are you going to DFA someone you'd like to keep and think will be claimed in order to unseat one of those five with Arrieta?

I don't think so. You know you'll never get through the season with just five starters, so you know Arrieta will get his chance soon enough anyway. You know he CAN benefit from more time in 'AAA', even if you figure he's ready. Unless he REALLY forces the decision, or the play of one or more of the other candidates really forces the decision, the guy who's not on the 40-man will have to wait his turn.

My point is that none of that decision making process has involved the service time situation yet. When you factor that in, it moves closer to being a no-brainer to start Arrieta in 'AAA'.

Note: This is a possible scenario but not a definite by any means. If the 40-man roster still has some fat that you obviously won't mind trimming, then the decision making variables are different. If you have injuries or if another option is performing extremely poorly then the decision making variables are different.

Good points. I agree, if those 5 are healthy and looking good in spring training, then you can say depth kept Arrieta down.

I guess I'm just not used to having 5 potentially very good starters in a rotation blocking another potentially very good starter in AAA. I like it.

[RVAbird]

I would be shocked if Arrieta starts the year on OD.

If he were to even make the staff out of OD, he probably is the 5th starter...That means he may not start for a while depending on days off, etc...

So, he may only get 1 or 2 starts before the April date to gain an extra year...No way, especially with a Boras client, do you bring up a top level prospect and not get that extra year.

I agree with you. It would be pretty short-sighted to start Arrieta in the rotation from day 1.

[QBsILLEST1]

Thru 4IP 1H 0R 0ER 2BB 2K

And that ERA is finally about to fall into the high 3's....Lets keep it up Jake!

[SurhoffRules]

Thru 4IP 1H 0R 0ER 2BB 2K

And that ERA is finally about to fall into the high 3's....Lets keep it up Jake!

And keep it up he does. Through 6.

1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Only 2 GOs to 11 AOs but whatever he's doing is working. Gameday says he's still in the game.

[murrayfan420]

He's probably done for the night at 100 pitches, 61 for strikes.

7IP 2H 0ER 2BB 6K. ERA down to 3.92

[waroriole]

Awesome two great outings in a row.

[Hank Scorpio]

You'd obviously like to see more groundballs, but there's no complaining about a start like this.

Great night.

[Sports Guy]

Very nice...Got his ERA below 4...Now, see if he can get it below 3.75 to end the year.

[Frobby]

Jake is getting it together just in time to make his case that he should be competing for a rotation spot next March without needing further seasoning. That's 4 very solid outings in a row.

[QSII]

Progressing nicely. That's the plan. Learn stuff. Get better.

[QBsILLEST1]

I would love to be able to catch the pitch FX from that game and compare it to the one at the Fenway Futures game. It will be so much fun to watch Arrieta, Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen and Hernandez next year in the rotation...I wonder what Guthrie is gonna do.....

[crowmst3k!]

So Arrieta was awesome, and allowed no earned runs.

He also leads the international league in looking like Kevin Bacon.

<img src = "http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_453562.jpg">

<img src = "http://www.thekevinbacongame.com/photos/kevinBacon3.jpg">

[LookinUp]

Here's the thing about Jake, he hasn't been pitching as bad as the numbers look. Basically, he just hit a wall in the middle innings in almost all of his bad starts. I'm guessing that he was just wearing down. Given his very weird 2008 schedule, that's not surprising to me. Look at these starts.

7/7 - 1 ER through 6 innings, 3 ER in the 7th

7/12 - 2 ER through 5, 4 ER in the 6th

7/24 - 3 ER through 4 IP - removed (never had it this start)

7/29 - 3 ER through 6 IP, 2 in the 7th

8/3 - 0 ER through 4, 4 in the 5th

Note, these are his 5 "bad" starts. That's 9 ER in 25 good innings (3.24 ERA), counting the start where he never seemed to have it. Cherrypicking some more by not counting the one really bad start (yeah, I know that's what I'm doing), he had 6 ER in 21 good innings (2.57 ERA).

In other words, his bad starts almost entirely consisted of good to decent starts where he simply lost it in the middle/late innings. This could easily be about fatigue as much as anything else.

[QBsILLEST1]

Here's the thing about Jake, he hasn't been pitching as bad as the numbers look. Basically, he just hit a wall in the middle innings in almost all of his bad starts. I'm guessing that he was just wearing down. Given his very weird 2008 schedule, that's not surprising to me. Look at these starts.

7/7 - 1 ER through 6 innings, 3 ER in the 7th

7/12 - 2 ER through 5, 4 ER in the 6th

7/24 - 3 ER through 4 IP - removed (never had it this start)

7/29 - 3 ER through 6 IP, 2 in the 7th

8/3 - 0 ER through 4, 4 in the 5th

Note, these are his 5 "bad" starts. That's 9 ER in 25 good innings (3.24 ERA), counting the start where he never seemed to have it. Cherrypicking some more by not counting the one really bad start (yeah, I know that's what I'm doing), he had 6 ER in 21 good innings (2.57 ERA).

In other words, his bad starts almost entirely consisted of good to decent starts where he simply lost it in the middle/late innings. This could easily be about fatigue as much as anything else.

And this is why the #'s dont tell the whole story. It also brings to mind Matusz at the ML level. He pitched his last game in Tampa Bay I think and gives up no runs and is pitching a shut out until the 6th where he gives up 4(I think). Since I watched it, I knew how well he pitched, he was dominant most iof that night, but to someone who just glances at the statline, they say "dang, 4 runs in 6 IP, he musta got hit kinda hard". Its the same situation with Jake, this is a very good thing though and it makes me more content with Jakes season at Norfolk knowing what you just said here, thanks Lookinup.