Padres interested in Guthrie...

[Sports Guy]

How likely is it that San Diego would move Blanks in a deal for Guthrie? I suspect Padres' fans are laughing hysterically at this disucssion. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Blanks is overrated IMO. While I would like to get him, he has an obvious hole in his bat and IIRC, he doesn't exactly have a body which you would expect him to age well with.

I think he looked better in the SD system because their system was awful.

Not to say he doesn't have good upside or anything like that but I just think he is overrated because you can say, he is the best prospect in the Pads system. Well, what is that in comparison to?

[MikeAD]

So, 2 deep playoff runs and a lot more ticket sales still makes them unable to afford his next contract? its not possible at all?

I don't think the revenue from that alone would make them able to afford his next contract. This also assumes two deep playoff runs, and not ALDS exits. More likely is that two years in the playoffs puts them into a situation where they feel they have to keep AGon, they have to find the money. But even then, if they get close this year and don't make it, they might feel a greater need to move him this off season for a nice package that (sum of all parts) puts them in line for more success.

Your scenario is possible though, I don't think anyone can write it off as inevitable that he is out of SD.

[mcgraw238]

I don't think the revenue from that alone would make them able to afford his next contract. This also assumes two deep playoff runs, and not ALDS exits. More likely is that two years in the playoffs puts them into a situation where they feel they have to keep AGon, they have to find the money. But even then, if they get close this year and don't make it, they might feel a greater need to move him this off season for a nice package that (sum of all parts) puts them in line for more success.

Your scenario is possible though, I don't think anyone can write it off as inevitable that he is out of SD.

I'd say he is probably out of SD but it may not come until the conclusion of the 2011 season. SD may opt to keep the team competive and let him walk for picks if they can't work out an extension. Perhaps not the wisest thing to do from a talent standpoint but may be offset by the added profits of 2 playoff seasons.

[MikeAD]

I'd say he is probably out of SD but it may not come until the conclusion of the 2011 season. SD may opt to keep the team competive and let him walk for picks if they can't work out an extension. Perhaps not the wisest thing to do from a talent standpoint but may be offset by the added profits of 2 playoff seasons.

Well thats one thing I don't agree with, there is no way that they let him walk for picks. He will either extend and get his contract in SD or he will be traded.

That would be a huge mistake by their FO. Its a mistake in general if they don't resign him and it appears that they had the ability to. I know they didn't draft him, but he is the hometown guy and a huge fan favorite (understatement!), him being on that team is huge.

[davearm]

So, 2 deep playoff runs and a lot more ticket sales still makes them unable to afford his next contract? its not possible at all?

Define "a lot more ticket sales".

The average ticket at PETCO is $20. Source

The average annual attendance at PETCO is roughly 2.6M fans. And it's falling: this year they're on pace for less than 2M.

To cover a $20M contract, the Padres would have to sell exactly 1 million additional $20 tickets. 38% increase from 2.6M. 50% increase from 2.0M. And they'd need to perpetuate this every year.

So you think keeping AG (not adding, keeping) and a few "deep playoff runs" will result in 1M more tickets sold?

Yeah me neither.

[Shopay]

I think Davearm is probably right about Blanks in terms of SD not willing to trade him. Prior to the season, he was clearly AGon's heir apparent. However, in the heat of a pennat race (that the Pads probably didn't expect to be in) things some times changes. If other teams in the division make moves to improve, what do the Pads do? As SG has pointed out, Blanks has probably lost some luster from the beginning of the season. Plus, Guthire + Luke/Wiggy isn't a terrible deal for the Pad, as at least Guthire and Luke would be around a few years (i.e., not three month rentals). I still don't expect the Pads to deal him, but it can't hurt to push for him and see if division rivals dial up the pressure on the Pads and/or the Pads relent in the heat of a pennant race. If they do, it won't be the first or last time that has happened.

[El Gordo]

Well thats one thing I don't agree with, there is no way that they let him walk for picks. He will either extend and get his contract in SD or he will be traded.

That would be a huge mistake by their FO. Its a mistake in general if they don't resign him and it appears that they had the ability to. I know they didn't draft him, but he is the hometown guy and a huge fan favorite (understatement!), him being on that team is huge.

If the Yankee's needed a 1B I could see him being traded. But I don't see many teams giving up a lot of young talent for a one year rental. There are too many FA 1B options out there this winter. The team with the best chance of extending him is teh PADS. I bet he stays there, or they take the picks.

[Sports Guy]

Define "a lot more ticket sales".

The average ticket at PETCO is $20. Source

The average annual attendance at PETCO is roughly 2.6M fans. And it's falling: this year they're on pace for less than 2M.

To cover a $20M contract, the Padres would have to sell exactly 1 million additional $20 tickets. 38% increase from 2.6M. 50% increase from 2.0M And they'd need to perpetuate this every year.

So you think keeping AG (not adding, keeping) and a few "deep playoff runs" will result in 1M more tickets sold?

Yeah me neither.

You aren't taking into account playoff revenue, which can be enormous.

And maybe the contract is set up to where he is making 15-18 million the first few years, while they continue to build up a bigger revenue stream.

Now, if they don't make the playoffs this year, then he is likely gone. If they are out quickly, there is still probably a good chance.

All I am saying is that it is no longer the guarantee it appeared to be coming into the season.

[mcgraw238]

Well thats one thing I don't agree with, there is no way that they let him walk for picks. He will either extend and get his contract in SD or he will be traded.

That would be a huge mistake by their FO. Its a mistake in general if they don't resign him and it appears that they had the ability to. I know they didn't draft him, but he is the hometown guy and a huge fan favorite (understatement!), him being on that team is huge.

We shall see. I still say they trade him this offseason but this season has increased the possibility that they keep him through next season. I'm not sure whether they have the resources to retain AGon. Tampa appears to be keeping Crawford rather than deal him and I see no scenerio where he is extended. Keeping AGon through 2011 keeps them as a playoff team through that term.

[Bradysburns]

I would love a deal of Guthrie and Scott to SD for Blanks, Cumberland and Forsythe. I would also propose that the Orioles kick in a few $$$ to make it happen. Of course the risk is all on the Orioles, as all three of the Pad players coming over are unproven. But a deal like this gets the Orioles the High upside infield prospects that we so desperately need without giving up any of the young pitchers to do so. And SD would then be in a great position to make a serious run into the post season. Lets do this deal.

Would you deal Matusz and Scott for Blanks, Cumberland and Forsythe?

[JTrea81]

Both James Darnell and Logan Forsythe have been turning it on in July after having disappointing starts.

Forsythe could be the replacement for Roberts at 2B and the leadoff spot.

[Hank Scorpio]

Hoyer's smart enough to recognize the hammer he's holding.

He's not going to pour half his payroll into one player.

[JTrea81]

Would you deal Matusz and Scott for Blanks, Cumberland and Forsythe?

If I'm trading Matsuz to SD, Adrian Gonzalez had better be coming back.

[rhall]

Both James Darnell and Logan Forsythe have been turning it on in July after having disappointing starts.

Forsythe could be the replacement for Roberts at 2B and the leadoff spot.

I don't see Forsythe as a starting player in the bigs. I see him as more of a utility man, similar to what everyone expected Martin Prado would be.

I do like Darnell, though.

[Kevin Lomax]

I don't see Forsythe as a starting player in the bigs. I see him as more of a utility man, similar to what everyone expected Martin Prado would be.

I do like Darnell, though.

I would have used a different example if I was trying to make the point you are.