Fukudome, Kuroda, Kobayashi

[DrungoHazewood]

OK. Then for Japan, which is where baseball is strong and established, it's not a matter of having some scouting staff beating the bushes, it's just a matter of having a scout going to lots of Japanese pro games. And, they have what, 2 6-team leagues? So, that's no more than 6-games per day to choose from, over the course of a season? One guy could see every player there play 1 of every 6 games they play. That's not "a staff", that's "a guy".

Korea has a league, but according to that article I stumbled across, Korea's not the huge hotbed that maybe we thought, and having their best players leave is enough to hurt the sport there. So, maybe that's one other guy, tops. Maybe a part-time guy.

So, where else in Asia is baseball even in existence, either as an emerging hotbed or as a place with strong leagues? It sounds good to try to get ahead of the pack, but you want to look where some significant amount of ballplayers actually are. It doesn't matter that China has a billion people if they don't play baseball.

Taiwan has a league that's pretty good. There are a number of Taiwanese players in the majors.

Korea has a pretty good league. I don't know how you define hotbed, but I figure if you have a pro league that's produced major league caliber players your country is on the right track.

China is going full-bore to develop ballplayers. This is part of their Olympic effort, and who knows if it'll continue afterwards. But if it does they have the potential to be a huge talent source.

Australia has had a domestic league of some kind for 15 or 20 years. Craig Shipley came from there, as did John Stephens, and Dave Nilsson.

And it's not just the Pacific Rim... There is baseball being played in Europe. Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands have decent domestic leagues. The tiny country of San Marino (of all places) has one of the better teams in the Italian League. There have been a few journeymen major leaguers who've played in Italy, like former Oriole Doug Johns. The Dutch used to win the European championship all the time, but I think the competition has caught up. Germany's leagues are organized like their soccer leagues, with a promotion/relegation scheme, and a couple years ago a MLB team (I forget who) signed the first player out of the German leagues.

I don't expect any one of these places to be a consistent pipeline of top-caliber talent, but there are pro players to be had, and there will be an occasional star.

[DrungoHazewood]

As for scouting reports, that's also arbitrary. I remember everyone being crazy for Dice-K due to his PITCHES. Scouts REPORTED about how great the "gyroball" and all that was. The scouting reports were flat out glowing. Combine that with amazing statistics and it's kind of weird that he's at 4.40 ERA.

Was it kind of weird that Tom Glavine had a 4.12 ERA in '99? Is it kind of weird that Roger Clemens had a 4.46 in '93 and a 4.60 in '99? Or that Mike Mussina had a 4.81 in '96? I think it just shows that there's a lot of variability in pitcher performances and numbers. That Matsuzaka had a transition period from a completely different country with different pitching patterns makes his performance less weird than the other pitchers I just mentioned.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not coming to any sort of a conclusion...at all. That's pretty much something I try to stay away from...always. Too many people way, way misunderstood me earlier, I don't come to conclusions, I merely point out how it's nowhere near a foregone conclusion.

In other words, just like any North American-based free agent. Right?

[TommyD4207]

Was it kind of weird that Tom Glavine had a 4.12 ERA in '99? Is it kind of weird that Roger Clemens had a 4.46 in '93 and a 4.60 in '99? Or that Mike Mussina had a 4.81 in '96? I think it just shows that there's a lot of variability in pitcher performances and numbers. That Matsuzaka had a transition period from a completely different country with different pitching patterns makes his performance less weird than the other pitchers I just mentioned.

It most definitely was. The fact that there was a certain level of uncertainty about him definitely puts it in a different perspective though.

While you say that he had a huge change, which I would agree with, I would also say that he probably had the advantage of the league not having any idea who he was, so that the league might not be caught up with him. In August and September he had ERA's of 4.45 and 7.62 respectively. His total post-All Star numbers are of a 5.19 ERA. Maybe the league caught up to him, I don't pretend to know.

In other words, just like any North American-based free agent. Right?

I would say there's more certainty about American free agents for obvious reasons. With American free agents, we consider stats mainly, correct? Occasionally scouting reports might come into play, but that's rarely really considered. With Japanese free agents, you've got Player A who's pitching for a 2.13 ERA and comes over and does adequately in the states and Player B who's pitching for a 2.97 ERA and comes over and gets shelled.

That would reveal the Japanese leagues to be incredibly significantly worse, but you've said that's not the case. Others in this thread have said that scouting reports also have to be considered. The fact that you have to add a different dimension in terms of evaluation, a subjective and often times arbitrary one moreover, adds to the uncertainty if you ask me.

[Sports Guy]

It most definitely was. The fact that there was a certain level of uncertainty about him definitely puts it in a different perspective though.

While you say that he had a huge change, which I would agree with, I would also say that he probably had the advantage of the league not having any idea who he was, so that the league might not be caught up with him. In August and September he had ERA's of 4.45 and 7.62 respectively. His total post-All Star numbers are of a 5.19 ERA. Maybe the league caught up to him, I don't pretend to know.

Dice K had a K rate just under 9 this year.

His comamand rate was 2.54.

His BB rate was 3.5 and his HR rate was 1.09.

He did much better in his first year in Boston than Beckett did and Beckett was a "known commodity" over here in the states.

Dice K has to get the fly ball rate down some, which will lower the HR rate...I suspect the BB rate will dip somewhat as well.

He threw over 200 innings.

His DIPS was just over 4.

He had a solid first year...Showed he is at lworst a borderline 2/3 starter.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would say there's more certainty about American free agents for obvious reasons. With American free agents, we consider stats mainly, correct? Occasionally scouting reports might come into play, but that's rarely really considered. With Japanese free agents, you've got Player A who's pitching for a 2.13 ERA and comes over and does adequately in the states and Player B who's pitching for a 2.97 ERA and comes over and gets shelled.

That would reveal the Japanese leagues to be incredibly significantly worse, but you've said that's not the case. Others in this thread have said that scouting reports also have to be considered. The fact that you have to add a different dimension in terms of evaluation, a subjective and often times arbitrary one moreover, adds to the uncertainty if you ask me.

The Japanese Leagues are somewhere between AAA and major league quality. If you rate the major leagues as 1.00, AAA as .90, the Japanese Leagues would be, like, 0.93 or 0.95.

The translations aren't as simple as saying a 2.13 in Japan is a X.XX here. You need to take into account a lot of variables, like the run environment of the league and park a guy came from, and where he's going. You have to account for how different component stats translate between Japan and the US.

I don't have all the information at my disposal to do this well. But Clay Davenport, Nate Silver, and Baseball Prospectus does and did. Matsuzaka's 2007 PECOTA projections went like this:

% 	W 	L 	SV 	G 	GS 	IP 	H 	BB 	SO 	HR 	GB% 	BABIP 	Stuff 	WHIP 	ERA 	PERA 	ERA 	H9 	BB9 	K9 	HR9 	VORP 	WXRL 	WARP90o 	16 	6 	0 	31 	31 	206.3 	185 	52 	191 	19 	44% 	.287 	32 	1.15 	3.02 	2.99 	2.90 	7.0 	2.2 	7.7 	0.7 	66.0 	8.1 	8.075o 	15 	6 	0 	30 	30 	197.3 	182 	52 	180 	19 	44% 	.292 	30 	1.18 	3.28 	3.19 	3.15 	7.2 	2.2 	7.6 	0.7 	56.9 	7.2 	7.160o 	13 	7 	0 	28 	28 	184.0 	178 	50 	164 	19 	44% 	.300 	28 	1.24 	3.68 	3.49 	3.52 	7.6 	2.4 	7.4 	0.7 	44.4 	5.8 	5.850o 	12 	7 	0 	28 	28 	177.0 	175 	50 	156 	18 	44% 	.304 	27 	1.27 	3.89 	3.65 	3.72 	7.7 	2.4 	7.3 	0.8 	38.4 	5.2 	5.240o 	12 	7 	0 	27 	27 	172.3 	173 	49 	150 	18 	44% 	.306 	26 	1.29 	4.04 	3.77 	3.86 	7.9 	2.5 	7.3 	0.8 	34.2 	4.7 	4.825o 	10 	8 	0 	26 	26 	160.0 	168 	48 	136 	18 	45% 	.313 	23 	1.34 	4.42 	4.06 	4.23 	8.2 	2.6 	7.1 	0.8 	24.4 	3.7 	3.810o 	7 	8 	0 	22 	22 	122.3 	145 	41 	97 	16 	45% 	.333 	15 	1.52 	5.65 	5.00 	5.38 	9.2 	2.9 	6.6 	1.0 	0.9 	1.0 	1.3Weighted Mean 	13 	7 	0 	29 	29 	183.3 	180 	51 	162 	19 	44% 	.302 	27 	1.26 	3.83 	3.60 	3.66 	7.7 	2.4 	7.4 	0.8 	38.7 	5.5 	5.5

His weighted mean ERA was a tick under 4.00. He just about nailed his 25% projection on rate stats, but around 90% in durability. He wasn't off the bottom of the chart, he wasn't miles off of where anyone expected him to be. He underperformed some... it happens. Maybe with a year in a 5-man, and a year in the US he'll bounce back.

[mefogus]

I would say there's more certainty about American free agents for obvious reasons. With American free agents, we consider stats mainly, correct? Occasionally scouting reports might come into play, but that's rarely really considered. With Japanese free agents, you've got Player A who's pitching for a 2.13 ERA and comes over and does adequately in the states and Player B who's pitching for a 2.97 ERA and comes over and gets shelled.

That would reveal the Japanese leagues to be incredibly significantly worse, but you've said that's not the case. Others in this thread have said that scouting reports also have to be considered. The fact that you have to add a different dimension in terms of evaluation, a subjective and often times arbitrary one moreover, adds to the uncertainty if you ask me.

Which we are you talking about? The royal we?

In any case, I'm not sure that I agree that pitcher A and B illustrate that the Japanese leagues are significantly worse. First of all, you are assuming that everything that these pitchers are is encompassed in ERA, which is not so. There are many peripheral factors to be considered, among them K-rates, team defense, stadiums, etc...

-m

[RShack]

The Japanese Leagues are somewhere between AAA and major league quality. If you rate the major leagues as 1.00, AAA as .90, the Japanese Leagues would be, like, 0.93 or 0.95.

Whenever people talk about MiL's here, they talk about them being "hitters' leagues" or "pitchers' leagues" or even-steven. I gather this is based on a combination of ball field size and altitude. Do we know what to say about the two Japanese leagues in this regard? (I'm not trying to make any particular point, I'm just curious, that's all.)

[DrungoHazewood]

Whenever people talk about MiL's here, they talk about them being "hitters' leagues" or "pitchers' leagues" or even-steven. I gather this is based on a combination of ball field size and altitude. Do we know what to say about the two Japanese leagues in this regard? (I'm not trying to make any particular point, I'm just curious, that's all.)

I believe that they are somewhat more pitcher-oriented leagues, but of course it varies by park and I believe there's a decent split between the Central and Pacific Leagues. The Central (IIRC) doesn't use the DH.

Some things to consider are the abundance of artificial turf, the fact that almost all stadiums are symmetrical, and that some of them have smaller dimensions than most MLB stadiums (although some have high fences). You can try a search, but it's kind of hard to find comprehensive numbers on the Japanese league. BP did some very good articles a few years back on translations... try searching on BP, Davenport, and Japan.

I have the links somewhere, but I gotta go... kickoff in Blacksburg in a little over seven hours.

[Sports Guy]

I believe that they are somewhat more pitcher-oriented leagues, but of course it varies by park and I believe there's a decent split between the Central and Pacific Leagues. The Central (IIRC) doesn't use the DH.

Some things to consider are the abundance of artificial turf, the fact that almost all stadiums are symmetrical, and that some of them have smaller dimensions than most MLB stadiums (although some have high fences). You can try a search, but it's kind of hard to find comprehensive numbers on the Japanese league. BP did some very good articles a few years back on translations... try searching on BP, Davenport, and Japan.

I have the links somewhere, but I gotta go... kickoff in Blacksburg in a little over seven hours.

Tech will be winning tonight.

[RShack]

Taiwan has a league that's pretty good. There are a number of Taiwanese players in the majors.

Korea has a pretty good league. I don't know how you define hotbed, but I figure if you have a pro league that's produced major league caliber players your country is on the right track.

China is going full-bore to develop ballplayers. This is part of their Olympic effort, and who knows if it'll continue afterwards. But if it does they have the potential to be a huge talent source.

Australia has had a domestic league of some kind for 15 or 20 years. Craig Shipley came from there, as did John Stephens, and Dave Nilsson.

And it's not just the Pacific Rim... There is baseball being played in Europe. Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands have decent domestic leagues. The tiny country of San Marino (of all places) has one of the better teams in the Italian League. There have been a few journeymen major leaguers who've played in Italy, like former Oriole Doug Johns. The Dutch used to win the European championship all the time, but I think the competition has caught up. Germany's leagues are organized like their soccer leagues, with a promotion/relegation scheme, and a couple years ago a MLB team (I forget who) signed the first player out of the German leagues.

I don't expect any one of these places to be a consistent pipeline of top-caliber talent, but there are pro players to be had, and there will be an occasional star.

I think it's a good thing for the O's to start thinking outside the box, etc. I think that's probably the main thing you and SG are getting at. I'm just not so sure that this is the best way to go about it, that's all.

There might be the occasional guy coming out of Holland or Italy or Australia or whereever. But I think it's trivial in the big scheme of things. I'd rather have the 30th-best guy from the DR and his little brother over the combined All Star teams of the places you mentioned. And if the O's can get their act together in the right places in Latin American, then it doesn't have to just be the 30th-best guy either. It could be the 30th-best, plus the 23rd-best, plus the 15th-best, plus the 9th-best, plus the 3rd-best. It might even be the 1st-best, you never know. Just because everybody else is there, that doesn't mean everybody else is going about it perfectly. Sometimes you can ace by seeing what everybody else does, then leap-frogging them. I'm not saying it's good that the O's haven't been there, because it's obviously not. But I think you gotta look at things as they are now, regardless of how they've been. I also agree that you gotta look to the future.

Looking to the future, I expect that a well-thought-out and solid focus on the places where they already grow lots of good ballplayers will pay off way more than trying to find rough-gems in places where baseball doesn't amount to much. I think it's gonna be way harder to get a bunch of Chinese playing baseball than maybe you think it is. If the Chinese start now, it will still be a few generations. Some years ago, Russia was making a big baseball push because of the Olympics. And because it was Russia, they could get very good athletes assigned to the team. Their team had an American coach, and he said that they had great athletes, better athletes top-to-bottom than he ever had back home, and that they all worked hard, tried hard, busted tail, etc. But he also said that any halfway-decent U.S. high school team would clean their clock. He said that none of his great-athlete players would ever amount to anything. His big hope was that the players he was teaching would wind up being coaches for the next generation, and then the players they coached would become coaches, and so on. He said it would take generations. He said you don't realize all the stuff that goes into baseball until you see guys who didn't grow up with it try to play the game. He said we just take it for granted because, for us, it's normal.

I'd rather the O's focus on getting the obvious things right first. I don't want them getting distracted with things that are basically long-term long-shots. Once they get the obvious things right, then if they think they might find good ballplayers on Mars, then it's fine with me for them to look there too. But I want them to get the basic stuff right first before they go fooling around and getting distracted with long-shots.

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles need to be looking all over the world for talent.

They can't just narrow it down to a few countries or one region or anything like that.

[RShack]

The Orioles need to be looking all over the world for talent.

They can't just narrow it down to a few countries or one region or anything like that.

Sure they can. I think they have to. The whole world is too big. It's the "jack of all trades, master of none" problem. If they try to look everywhere, they won't be doing a good enough job of looking where it counts the most. To do anything right, you need to be focused. You can't be everywhere and do everything, all at once. You gotta hunker down on what's most important.

[Sports Guy]

Sure they can. I think they have to. The whole world is too big. It's the "jack of all trades, master of none" problem. If they try to look everywhere, they won't be doing a good enough job of looking where it counts the most. To do anything right, you need to be focused. You can't be everywhere and do everything, all at once. You gotta hunker down on what's most important.

How come other teams can look all over the world but the Orioles can't??

[RShack]

How come other teams can look all over the world but the Orioles can't??

I don't think they do. I think the MFY's got hosed on whatshisname because they were reading newspaper headlines about Dice-K. If they'd actually been looking, they would've known better.

How many teams scout Holland or San Marino? How many prospects get looked at from there, let alone signed? Making a big deal out of this is like spending your investment money playing the Mega-Lotto (or whatever it is). Better to look hard in a few places, and do it right, than do a crappy job of trying to look everywhere, especially in places that don't matter much. It's not like China's gonna flip a switch and start churning out ML-quality guys next week, or next year, or even 15 years from now.

You keep saying it's all easy. But I've got good reasons to not believe you ;-)

[Sports Guy]

I don't think they do. I think the MFY's got hosed on whatshisname because they were reading newspaper headlines about Dice-K. If they'd actually been looking, they would've known better.

How many teams scout Holland or San Marino? How many prospects get looked at from there, let alone signed? Making a big deal out of this is like spending your investment money playing the Mega-Lotto (or whatever it is). Better to look hard in a few places, and do it right, than do a crappy job of trying to look everywhere, especially in places that don't matter much. It's not like China's gonna flip a switch and start churning out ML-quality guys next week, or next year, or even 15 years from now.

You keep saying it's all easy. But I've got good reasons to not believe you ;-)

The Orioles should be spending as much of their resources scoutign worldwide to find talent wherever they can.

To say otherwise is just ridiculous.

Instead of pissing away 10 million on Jay Payton, we should have hired that many more scouts and built that much better facilities all over the world.

They need to be concentrating in the latin American countries the most obviously...But they also need to have a very good presence in Asia, which they have NONE and they need to be going all over.

They have done some in Australia in the past....We have done some in Canada.

They just need to do more.

This is just common sense....Look for the most talent possible.