Shohei Otani

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Don’t know. Most of my post is my cumbersome attempt at quoting Wildcard from another thread. Has the new agreement with NPB been finalized?

I don't know.   I am asking questions, I don't really know.   T hat's the great thing about this board, there's usually going to be someone with the correct info!

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Is it legal to give a player an out clause like that?   If he is essentially being treated as an international signing on par with a 16 year old Dominican, how can he circumvent the standard rules about having to play so many years before arbitration and so many more before free agency?

I don't think so.  From everything I've read, he's going to sign a standard player contract, same as Austin Hays or anyone else.

That's why the soft factor of how much clubs will let him do what he wants to do with his talent is expected to play so big.

You might be able to extend him early, but if his extension doesn't line up with Madison Bumgarner,Chris Archer type benchmarks, it's expected to be scrutinized ala the Braves in Latin America.  I've read suggestions the degree of the Braves punishment was also intended as a warning shot across the bow to everyone not to get too cute here.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I don't think so.  From everything I've read, he's going to sign a standard player contract, same as Austin Hays or anyone else.

That's why the soft factor of how much clubs will let him do what he wants to do with his talent is expected to play so big.

You might be able to extend him early, but if his extension doesn't line up with Madison Bumgarner,Chris Archer type benchmarks, it's expected to be scrutinized ala the Braves in Latin America.  I've read suggestions the degree of the Braves punishment was also intended as a warning shot across the bow to everyone not to get too cute here.

Yes, and there is also the thought that the severeness of the Braves penalties was at least partially meant to send a message to any teams trying to circumvent the rules to sign Ohtani.

[Il BuonO]

So, I’ll ask my original question a different way. Why would the Orioles not make a play based on perceived value? Is it strictly the posting fee? Even if they couldn’t extend him they’d have him for two years.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

So, I’ll ask my original question a different way. Why would the Orioles not make a play based on perceived value? Is it strictly the posting fee? Even if they couldn’t extend him they’d have him for two years.

I don't think the two year thing is legal.

Either way, there is no good reason for the Orioles not to try their best to get him.

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs did a reader poll in their chat the other day of what soft factor will mean the most, and keeping players healthy rated high.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-team-can-keep-shohei-ohtani-the-healthiest/

They surveyed the last five years, and I was surprised to see it, but we were #1 at pitchers in a composite ranking of pitcher days on the DL and pitcher trips to the DL.

Heck, we could show him the flag court for his left handed power, and maybe even be the only organization to give him a shot at CF.  He'd probably have to settle for a Mychal Givens type pitching role if he wants regular at-bats.

[Il BuonO]

7 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I don't think the two year thing is legal.

Either way, there is no good reason for the Orioles not to try their best to get him.

Do we have any international pool money? Duquette likes trading it away, albeit because of Angelos.

[wildbillhiccup]

The MLB network didn't an interesting breakdown of his potential value to a club yesterday. They basically compared Otani to a team having both Tanaka / Tomas, looked at what it took sign bot players then added in inflation. Tanaka was a solid comp, based on performance (lower era, but Otani has a much higher strikeout rate) and Tomas was a comp based on how the scout's evaluated him (i.e., 1-5) in each category. Worth watching if you can find it. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Do we have any international pool money? Duquette likes trading it away, albeit because of Angelos.

Like 160k, but obviously Ohtani isn't here for the money, he could have waited two years and gotten 100 million +.  Now the most he can get is 4-5ish million I think.  He made 2.4 million last year in Japan and would have made more this upcoming season I believe.

[El Gordo]

14 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Like 160k, but obviously Ohtani isn't here for the money, he could have waited two years and gotten 100 million +.  Now the most he can get is 4-5ish million I think.  He made 2.4 million last year in Japan and would have made more this upcoming season I believe.

If not the money what do the O's have to offer more than the MFY?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, El Gordo said:

If not the money what do the O's have to offer more than the MFY?

Nothing really, but no reason not to make a pitch.  Also, although a moot point now, a fair criticism the FO knew there was at least a good chance he'd be posted and they weren't going to use the slots, why not save them for Ohtani.  They had 5.75 million to start with.  Then you hire someone he is close to from Japan to help make him at home and all of a sudden you have a compelling case for perhaps the most talented cost controlled major league ready player in recent history.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

Nothing really, but no reason not to make a pitch.  Also, although a moot point now, a fair criticism the FO knew there was at least a good chance he'd be posted and they weren't going to use the slots, why not save them for Ohtani.  They had 5.75 million to start with.  Then you hire someone he is close to from Japan to help make him at home and all of a sudden you have a compelling case for perhaps the most talented cost controlled major league ready player in recent history.

Exactly. And that is why if they don’t it makes little sense.

[Luke-OH]

From this SF chronicle article :

Oakland also can offer something many teams will not: The A’s are willing to let Ohtani occasionally play in the outfield on days he’s not starting, according to the source. That might resonate with Ohtani, who mostly has been limited to DH-ing in Japan after playing 54 games in the outfield as a rookie in 2013. 

 

The A's only have 300k to offer but are making a serious attempt.

[spiritof66]

It was such a good idea to trade away that international pool money because, you know, that money would just get thrown away on 16-year-old lottery tickets. It would never enable you to sign a ML-ready guy who could help you right away.  

[Number5]

2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

If not the money what do the O's have to offer more than the MFY?

G & M crab cakes.