Manny still worth 400 million?

[Bradysburns]

Mike Trout best four seasons OPS+ 168 173 176 179

Barry Bonds. 231 259 263 268

True - but you're just looking at batting. Two issues there for me. First, Trout is not tainted by obvious steroid usage. Bonds' numbers are all tainted, IMO. And it's not even questionable.

Second, Trout is more athletic. He's 6'3, 230 and plays a great center field.

If I were putting together a team and had to choose between fielding nine Mike Trouts or nine Barry Bonds (without the 'roids, especially), I would go Trout every time.

Just read back and saw the interesting tidbit about Trout v. Bonds, first four years WAR (thanks Can_of_corn). Further evidence. I will admit that I am biased against Bonds because of the steroids issues and his personality.

[Frobby]

We have no idea what Trout's defense will look like after he starts bulking up for those age 30+ seasons.

Bonds through age 24 season: 23.5 WAR

Trout through age 24 season: 48.1 WAR

Trout won't match Bonds' late-stage career, but he's building a sizable lead in his early 20's.

[weams]

True - but you're just looking at batting. Two issues there for me. First, Trout is not tainted by obvious steroid usage. Bonds' numbers are all tainted, IMO. And it's not even questionable.

Second, Trout is more athletic. He's 6'3, 230 and plays a great center field.

If I were putting together a team and had to choose between fielding nine Mike Trouts or nine Barry Bonds (without the 'roids, especially), I would go Trout every time.

I like Mike Trout. I hated Barry Bonds. Neither seem to carry their teams that far.

[Frobby]

True - but you're just looking at batting. Two issues there for me. First, Trout is not tainted by obvious steroid usage. Bonds' numbers are all tainted, IMO. And it's not even questionable.

Second, Trout is more athletic. He's 6'3, 230 and plays a great center field.

If I were putting together a team and had to choose between fielding nine Mike Trouts or nine Barry Bonds (without the 'roids, especially), I would go Trout every time.

Bonds was incredibly athletic in his 20's and early 30's. He won 8 gold gloves, stole 500 bases. He never played CF but was as good a LF as you'd want to see.

[weams]

Bonds was incredibly athletic in his 20's and early 30's. He won 8 gold gloves, stole 500 bases. He never played CF but was as good a LF as you'd want to see.

Until he sold himself.

[atomic]

True - but you're just looking at batting. Two issues there for me. First, Trout is not tainted by obvious steroid usage. Bonds' numbers are all tainted, IMO. And it's not even questionable.

Second, Trout is more athletic. He's 6'3, 230 and plays a great center field.

If I were putting together a team and had to choose between fielding nine Mike Trouts or nine Barry Bonds (without the 'roids, especially), I would go Trout every time.

Just read back and saw the interesting tidbit about Trout v. Bonds, first four years WAR (thanks Can_of_corn). Further evidence. I will admit that I am biased against Bonds because of the steroids issues and his personality.

Trout strikes out way too much. Bonds wasn't on steroids most of his career. Bonds far superior player.

[brianod]

I see a lot of people debating Manny's worth. But, that's only one factor in this equation. Can the Orioles afford his worth? Even if they can, do they put so much of their budget into one person who has already had two major injuries. Do we trust DD to make that decision? Is that decision needed very soon? (I think so). This is a classic risk reward decision for an organization and frankly, we aren't prepared for it. I would hire a couple guys who do that for a living, for say, 500K a year to assist DD, Peter and his sons...

[weams]

I see a lot of people debating Manny's worth. But, that's only one factor in this equation. Can the Orioles afford his worth? Even if they can, do they put so much of their budget into one person who has already had two major injuries. Do we trust DD to make that decision? Is that decision needed very soon? (I think so). This is a classic risk reward decision for an organization and frankly, we aren't prepared for it. I would hire a couple guys who do that for a living, for say, 500K a year to assist DD, Peter and his sons...

Don't they have the Professor of economics to do that? Dr. Stephen Walters.

[DrungoHazewood]

I like Mike Trout. I hated Barry Bonds. Neither seem to carry their teams that far.

That's because we're not talking basketball. One great player in baseball makes a .500 team the 2nd wildcard.

[brianod]

Don't they have the Professor of economics to do that? Dr. Stephen Walters.

Don't know but he needs a say if they have him. More in his wheel house than dd's.

[weams]

Don't know but he needs a say if they have him. More in his wheel house than dd's.

I've been told he said a lot. At least in the past.

[FanSince88]

Assuming a lack of opt-out...

Floor for Manny in 2018 free agency is 10/325

Ceiling is 14/500

5/200 is also a possibility.

With an opt out (say after three years), floor is something like 10/275.

But I don't see Manny going for an opt out...why bother when you can get an obscene amount of money even without one? He won't have anything left to prove by 2018.

[atomic]

Assuming a lack of opt-out...

Floor for Manny in 2018 free agency is 10/325

Ceiling is 14/500

5/200 is also a possibility.

With an opt out (say after three years), floor is something like 10/275.

But I don't see Manny going for an opt out...why bother when you can get an obscene amount of money even without one? He won't have anything left to prove by 2018.

Trout didn't get close to those numbers and Machado isn't anywhere close to Trout performance wise. Give him a 5 year 126 million dollar contract.

[Can_of_corn]

Trout didn't get close to those numbers and Machado isn't anywhere close to Trout performance wise. Give him a 5 year 126 million dollar contract.

Trout signed his deal much earlier in the process. That makes a huge difference.

[fdrnewdeal]

Assuming a lack of opt-out...

Floor for Manny in 2018 free agency is 10/325

Ceiling is 14/500

5/200 is also a possibility.

With an opt out (say after three years), floor is something like 10/275.

But I don't see Manny going for an opt out...why bother when you can get an obscene amount of money even without one? He won't have anything left to prove by 2018.

As crazy as those figures sound, 10/325 is almost certainly a bargain. He's an elite defense 3b, completing his second wRC+ season of 130+ and he just turned 24. That's a borderline MVP candidate most seasons, even if he doesn't improve. Even if he regresses, steadily, that's still an exceptional player over the next 5 years.

There's basically only 1 player in baseball who is a slam dunk in terms of being better (Trout). There are a handful of guys who one could reasonably argue are about equal (Altuve, Betts, Donaldson, Bryant, and Correra/Lindor if you are aggressive).

A solid starting position player gets 100 million in the market these days at 30. Machado is much better than that and much younger.