Do Long Term FA Contracts Ever Work Out?

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Everyone is so into velocity and stats. Grienke has some of the best stuff in the ML. He has since KC. If it moves it's hard to hit. Throwing hard doesn't matter.

If velocity doesn't matter than why has the average velocity been going up?  Why has Jered Weaver's numbers been in decline?

Velocity is an important component.

[Can_of_corn]

Does anyone not think Bundy would be more effective if he had his old velocity back?

[Il BuonO]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If velocity doesn't matter than why has the average velocity been going up?  Why has Jered Weaver's numbers been in decline?

Velocity is an important component.

Velocity is an important component, but Greinke has such a varied arsenal it’s less a factor. Very few guys develop other pitches as velocity is diminished to stay effective. Greinke doesn’t need to rely on velocity alone to be successful.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Glavine and Maddux worked out. Greinke is in that category imo.

Greinke is a guy who used to have very good velocity and is now average.    Maddux and Glavine were guys who had average velocity in their younger days and eventually were well below average.    Both were throwing in the mid-80’s at the end of their careers.   Greinke averaged 91 last year and that was his first time under 92.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Velocity is an important component, but Greinke has such a varied arsenal it’s less a factor. Very few guys develop other pitches as velocity is diminished to stay effective. Greinke doesn’t need to rely on velocity alone to be successful.

Sure it might be less of a factor but to say things like "throwing hard doesn't matter" just isn't accurate.

His 4 seam is still coming in around 91 (down from 93-94) so he probably has a few more ticks he can give up before it starts catching up to him.

[Dark Helmet]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odd, Maddux in his prime worked in the 90's.  The only two years I have velocity data for, in which his ERA+ was under 100,  he was in the upper 80's.

There exists a point where command and movement do not compensate for a lack of velocity.  For one pitcher that point might be 93 MPH, for another 87.

I'm not saying that velocity is all important but it does have to be present to some degree.  (knuckleball of course excluded)

And Greinke still works in the 90's. He's showing no signs of regression. I doubt his velocity will suddenly fall off the charts. I think he will be effective at a high level for 3 or 4 years and be pretty solid for 2 or 3 years after that, if he decides to keep playing. 

Pitchers can adjust.  Look at CC Sabathia. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Dark Helmet said:

And Greinke still works in the 90's. He's showing no signs of regression. I doubt his velocity will suddenly fall off the charts. I think he will be effective at a high level for 3 or 4 years and be pretty solid for 2 or 3 years after that, if he decides to keep playing. 

Pitchers can adjust.  Look at CC Sabathia. 

Of course they can, but it is an easier adjustment to go from gas to average than average to below average.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course they can, but it is an easier adjustment to go from gas to average than average to below average.

I am thinking of Mike Flanagan, Jesse Orosco and other long-in-the-tooth LOOGYs. Jaime Moyer for a starter, Koji Uehara for a righty reliever. There are some exceptions...

[weams]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If velocity doesn't matter than why has the average velocity been going up?  Why has Jered Weaver's numbers been in decline?

Velocity is an important component.

2

Very important to be one of the 150 that can start in the majors. In the entire world.  Six, seven or eight guys in the world can do it without velocity. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does anyone not think Bundy would be more effective if he had his old velocity back?

Bundy would be a Cy Young contender with his old velocity.  

[Chavez Ravine]

One thing I have wondered about while drinking beer: how does the length of the contract interact with the total value? For instance, if teams could only at most give out three year contracts, what would be the value of the contract Manny would get? Presumably without long-term deals total value would decrease because right now teams get to amortize the costs and also essentially use credit to buy near term performance.....which to my non-economist mind seems like it would tend to inflate how much teams are willing to shell out.  But on the other hand, (luxury taxing aside), many teams don't seem to have near term cash flow issues. Free from the worry of accumulating underwater contracts,  I could see the bidding on 3 unfettered prime Manny years getting intense.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

One thing I have wondered about while drinking beer: how does the length of the contract interact with the total value? For instance, if teams could only at most give out three year contracts, what would be the value of the contract Manny would get? Presumably without long-term deals total value would decrease because right now teams get to amortize the costs and also essentially use credit to buy near term performance.....which to my non-economist mind seems like it would tend to inflate how much teams are willing to shell out.  But on the other hand, (luxury taxing aside), many teams don't seem to have near term cash flow issues. Free from the worry of accumulating underwater contracts,  I could see the bidding on 3 unfettered prime Manny years getting intense.

The general guide is the more years you offer the lower the AAV.

I would love someone like Trout or Harper to sign a series of one year deals.

If you are a contender do you pay 40M for one year of Trout?  How about Fifty?

[pastorfan]

7 hours ago, McLovin said:

Here is an all-time outlier: 

35 year old Randy Johnson signed a 4 year deal, which was later extended to 6. He finished his contract after his age 40 season with 4 Cy Young's, 1 2nd place Cy Young finish, a WS title, a perfect game, and 47.8 rWAR! 

mariners must love that!

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The general guide is the more years you offer the lower the AAV.

I would love someone like Trout or Harper to sign a series of one year deals.

If you are a contender do you pay 40M for one year of Trout?  How about Fifty?

Good point. I bet someone would give Trout 50.

[Can_of_corn]

Seems like a fun spot to put this.  Of course this is very early in the contract.