Kyle Stowers 2021

[sportsfan8703]

17 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Just heard on the game that Stowers gets a Co-Minor League Player of the Year with Rutschman.

How big is this for our system that we have the #1 overall pick and he ties with Stowers for POY?  Also, what a draft by Elias in 2019. AR, Gunnar, Stowers. First three picks. 

[Ruzious]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How big is this for our system that we have the #1 overall pick and he ties with Stowers for POY?  Also, what a draft by Elias in 2019. AR, Gunnar, Stowers. First three picks. 

It's a feel-good thing - not sure I'd jump to any further conclusions.  

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

It's a feel-good thing - not sure I'd jump to any further conclusions.  

Right.   We’ll decide how good a draft it was when we see what the results are in the major leagues.   Good performance in the minors is nice, but in the end it doesn’t determine what the draft yielded.  

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/24/2021 at 4:50 PM, RZNJ said:

He's jumped, I mean played, at 3 levels this year.   Maybe he'll improve his contact rates with more experience?

Now I'm curious if that actually happens. How many players strike out a ton when they're young and consistently improve as they go along?  To do such a study you'd also have to adjust for league rates.  Especially in the last 20-30 years.  If you debuted in 2000 and played until 2020 you'd witness 34% rise in K rates, so someone with 100 K per 600 PA would be holding steady if they struck out 134 times in 2020.

[DrungoHazewood]

This isn't going to be systematic, and we'll be eyeballing league changes but:

Carl Yastrzemski struck out 14.7% as a rookie, then in his 30s had years in the 6-7% range.
Frank Robinson had fairly similar K rates throughout his career.
Eddie Murray's highest rate was as a rookie, but was up and down between 9-14%.
Rick Dempsey's K rate went up as he aged.
Russell Branyan started off K'ing 35%+ and later on got down just under 30%.
Jack Cust was a regular from 2007-11 and started off around 33%, but did have a couple years right around 30%.
 

According to Tom Tango's component aging curves strikeouts are like anything else... start off higher, dip down to a low around 27, then slowly increase through one's 30s.

I don't know... if I had to bet I'd say Stowers starts out between 35-40% and if he can establish himself could get that down into the low 30s before ticking back up.  All dependent on MLB not messing too much with current strike zone and trends.  I wouldn't rule out today's young players seeing a mound relocation at some point.

[Tony-OH]

Stowers is going to be an interesting case to watch in the majors leagues. He's unlike anyone prospect in the system because of his extreme K rate, yet he actually takes a lot of pitches and has a pretty good idea of the strike zone which allows his OBP (.387 thru three levels) to play. 

Stowers hits for a pretty high average and part of the high BABIP that Drungo talked about is because he hits the ball as hard if not harder than anyone in the system, including Rutschman. 

He's a solid Rfer with a solid Rfer arm (both 50) and he runs well on the bases but is not a base stealer (think Mountcastle). 

No one swings harder than Stowers but he makes pretty good adjustments from at bat to at bat. You might blow a fastball up in the zone by him one at bat and then try it next at bat and he'll hit the ball 450 feet.

Personally, I think his power is going to play in Camden Yards and although he may end up a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues, I think he's going walk enough to keep his OBP near .340-.350. 

Oh and let's not forget, he hit lefties actually better than right is so no platoon risk.

I think he's an everyday guy and has a chance to be an impact bat if he can find a way to cut down on the K's a bit by understanding the situation and not swinging out of his shoes with two strikes.

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Stowers is going to be an interesting case to watch in the majors leagues. He's unlike anyone prospect in the system because of his extreme K rate, yet he actually takes a lot of pitches and has a pretty good idea of the strike zone which allows his OBP (.387 thru three levels) to play. 

Stowers hits for a pretty high average and part of the high BABIP that Drungo talked about is because he hits the ball as hard if not harder than anyone in the system, including Rutschman. 

He's a solid Rfer with a solid Rfer arm (both 50) and he runs well on the bases but is not a base stealer (think Mountcastle). 

No one swings harder than Stowers but he makes pretty good adjustments from at bat to at bat. You might blow a fastball up in the zone by him one at bat and then try it next at bat and he'll hit the ball 450 feet.

Personally, I think his power is going to play in Camden Yards and although he may end up a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues, I think he's going walk enough to keep his OBP near .340-.350. 

Oh and let's not forget, he hit lefties actually better than right is so platoon risk.

I think he's an everyday guy and has a chance to be an impact bat if he can find a way to cut down on the K's a bit by understanding the situation and not swinging out of his shoes with two strikes.

That swinging out of his shoes with two strikes has worked out pretty well for Bo Bichette.  We'll see if he can keep it up, though.  He has very good hand-eye coordination.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Now I'm curious if that actually happens. How many players strike out a ton when they're young and consistently improve as they go along?  To do such a study you'd also have to adjust for league rates.  Especially in the last 20-30 years.  If you debuted in 2000 and played until 2020 you'd witness 34% rise in K rates, so someone with 100 K per 600 PA would be holding steady if they struck out 134 times in 2020.

One good thing is, he hasn’t gotten worse as he’s moved up so far.

Hi A 34.2% K rate

AA 30.4%

AAA 32.5%

 

[ShoelesJoe]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Oh and let's not forget, he hit lefties actually better than right is so platoon risk.

This could prove to be a very important factor going forward. Our list of top position player prospects is heavily tilted towards left-handed hitters. Looking 2-3 years down the road it’s possible (with some luck) we could have an everyday starting lineup with Henderson, Stowers, Cowser, and Kjerstad in it, which would probably mean facing a lot of LH pitching as opposing teams try to nullify our LH offense. Having guys with somewhat even platoon splits could be a huge advantage in those situations. 

[interloper]

Stowers is quickly making many of our current outfielders feel irrelevant. Santander might get traded or non-tendered, Stewart and McKenna are depth, Diaz is lost. 

[panick]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Stowers is going to be an interesting case to watch in the majors leagues. He's unlike anyone prospect in the system because of his extreme K rate, yet he actually takes a lot of pitches and has a pretty good idea of the strike zone which allows his OBP (.387 thru three levels) to play. 

Stowers hits for a pretty high average and part of the high BABIP that Drungo talked about is because he hits the ball as hard if not harder than anyone in the system, including Rutschman. 

He's a solid Rfer with a solid Rfer arm (both 50) and he runs well on the bases but is not a base stealer (think Mountcastle). 

No one swings harder than Stowers but he makes pretty good adjustments from at bat to at bat. You might blow a fastball up in the zone by him one at bat and then try it next at bat and he'll hit the ball 450 feet.

Personally, I think his power is going to play in Camden Yards and although he may end up a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues, I think he's going walk enough to keep his OBP near .340-.350. 

Oh and let's not forget, he hit lefties actually better than right is so no platoon risk.

I think he's an everyday guy and has a chance to be an impact bat if he can find a way to cut down on the K's a bit by understanding the situation and not swinging out of his shoes with two strikes.

Do you think that once Stowers gets to the majors that the O's hitting coach will try to change that? Which could mean that Stowers strikes out less, but also does not get as many hits due to a reduced exit velocity. 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, panick said:

Do you think that once Stowers gets to the majors that the O's hitting coach will try to change that? Which could mean that Stowers strikes out less, but also does not get as many hits due to a reduced exit velocity. 

I listen to a few podcasts and I think the O's have gone to great lengths to teach good swing decisions. Swinging at a low/away slider on the first pitch of an AB might be a bad swing decision in their eyes even if it's a strike.

That approach will lead to better contact, but also deeper counts and thus more k's and walks. I think we view the k rate as the tradeoff to better contact when we actually swing, so I would expect it to be relatively high. 

[SilverRocket]

Are there stats available for how many of his strikeouts are swinging vs looking? Or just swing rates in and out of the zone? I'm curious if his patience means he just takes a lot of called 3rd strikes too.

[sportsfan8703]

He could see more predictable pitches if we sandwiched him between Mullins and AR. He’d see more fastballs. 

[Tony-OH]

On 9/28/2021 at 11:54 AM, panick said:

Do you think that once Stowers gets to the majors that the O's hitting coach will try to change that? Which could mean that Stowers strikes out less, but also does not get as many hits due to a reduced exit velocity. 

I think the only adjustments that needs to be made is understanding he situation of the game and when to go ahead and cut back on the swing. He really makes pretty good swing decisions overall.