Tyler Wells 2022

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not many missed bats though.

His K rate is in the 5s.  Of the starters who have pitched 40 or more innings(129 pitchers), only 5 starters have a worse K rate than he does.

Funny enough, 3 of the 5 starters also have a sub 4 ERA but Wells has the highest WAR and the best xERA.  His FIP and xFIP, which suggest he will be giving up a lot more runs, is on par or better than all of them as well.

Definitely concerning. I hope his K's will catch up to his ERA rather than vice versa. My eye test says Wells does not lack for stuff. 

Forced to choose between Tanner Scott and Wei Yin Chen, I would take Chen all day, every day.

[interloper]

Our best starting pitcher. Didn't see that coming. But I've loved Wells every since I saw him on the mound last year. He does everything our home grown pitching prospects haven't seemed to be able to do. Attack, yet not give up a million home runs or walks. And look mean while doing so. 

Still have hope for Bradish, mostly next year after he takes an offseason to collect his thoughts and work on some things, but he could learn a lot from Wells. 

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Funny enough, 3 of the 5 starters also have a sub 4 ERA but Wells has the highest WAR and the best xERA.  His FIP and xFIP, which suggest he will be giving up a lot more runs, is on par or better than all of them as well.

Not sure what the data means.  Is he a really good mediocre pitcher?  I don't think he's anywhere near a top of the rotation talent, but I think he could be a really good #4 or #5 starter in a rotation with Means, Rodriguez and Hall.  Maybe next year could bring the signing of a significant ML caliber starter.  Not a star, but a step up from the Lyles of the world.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Not sure what the data means.  Is he a really good mediocre pitcher?  I don't think he's anywhere near a top of the rotation talent, but I think he could be a really good #4 or #5 starter in a rotation with Means, Rodriguez and Hall.  Maybe next year could bring the signing of a significant ML caliber starter.  Not a star, but a step up from the Lyles of the world.

I think the data tells us he’s not as good as his ERA states.

The question is, are you better off with him as a starter or a reliever?  That’s the question that remains unanswered imo.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the data tells us he’s not as good as his ERA states.

The question is, are you better off with him as a starter or a reliever?  That’s the question that remains unanswered imo.

Part of it is the needs of the team.  Right now the team needs him to start.

[Sports Guy]

27% swingstr% for Wells last night.  He only had 3 Ks but if he misses bats like that, the Ks will come.

Didnt see most of the game, so not sure why he only threw 63 pitches.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

27% swingstr% for Wells last night.  He only had 3 Ks but if he misses bats like that, the Ks will come.

Didnt see most of the game, so not sure why he only threw 63 pitches.

Hyde said before the game that he wasn't going to stretch him out.  The only reason he made it to the 5th is because he got thru the 4th in less than 40 pitches, and he was sitting on a no hitter.

[sportsfan8703]

Doing this all while on a strict pitch/innings count. It’s a credit to him, and his success, that we aren’t talking about that more. Just keep plugging along. 

[Hallas]

On 6/23/2022 at 2:04 PM, Sports Guy said:

I think the data tells us he’s not as good as his ERA states.

The question is, are you better off with him as a starter or a reliever?  That’s the question that remains unanswered imo.

Well, if you buy his xERA then "not as good" is still damn good for a starter.  If you buy his FIP then maybe we do need to consider his value as a reliever.

 

I'm not really sure what to do when his FIP and xERA diverge by a decent amount.  It's pretty clearly because the quality of contact allowed combined with his low walk rate is really helping his case.  But given that both have very similar predictive power I'm really not sure how you treat them.  I guess you could split the difference, in which case he's still a starter but more of a reliable back end guy on a good team.

 

For what it's worth his xERA and FIP from 2021 are all pretty close, while his FIP from 2022 is elevated.  You could make the argument that it's his FIP that's the outlier.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Hyde said before the game that he wasn't going to stretch him out.  The only reason he made it to the 5th is because he got thru the 4th in less than 40 pitches, and he was sitting on a no hitter.

Is this just because of the amount of innings or was there another reason?

[jamalshw]

I know this isn't analytical or numbers supported, but right now, I feel the best about our chances when I see Wells is pitching. Of course, that was the case with Zimmermann the first month of the season. Still, so far this year, Wells is the only one I'd want to be back in the rotation next year. (We will see where we are with Kremer in a couple months).

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I know this isn't analytical or numbers supported, but right now, I feel the best about our chances when I see Wells is pitching. Of course, that was the case with Zimmermann the first month of the season. Still, so far this year, Wells is the only one I'd want to be back in the rotation next year. (We will see where we are with Kremer in a couple months).

Wells > Zimmermann.  

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Is this just because of the amount of innings or was there another reason?

He said something about him throwing a season high in terms of pitches the previous outing (looks like he was at 95 pitches) and not wanting to go too hard on him back to back with Akin well roster.  So not really innings but definitely load management.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

27% swingstr% for Wells last night.  He only had 3 Ks but if he misses bats like that, the Ks will come.

Didnt see most of the game, so not sure why he only threw 63 pitches.

He had thrown, I believe, 36 pitches through 4.  He was cruising until he ran into a couple tough 6+ pitch ABs.  He worked hard and threw a ton of pitches in the 5th and you could tell he was gassed.  He had a perfect game going and the two tough ABs plus emotions of the moment paid their price and noticeably wore him out.  That was my take.  

[Frobby]

Wells has a 2.19 ERA and an 0.89 WHIP over his last seven starts.   The team won six of those seven, with Wells getting the W in five of them.   FIP may not believe in him, but I kind of do.