Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Just Regular]

Going to the Fangraphs Commenter level, here is sadtrombone on Gunnar v. Grayson for Orioles #1, and also some comparisons with other team's top prospects.

 2 hours ago

 

 Reply to  Kevbot034

I think it partly depends on who graduates off of it. Of the guys currently ahead of him, Witt, Rodriguez, and Torkelson will definitely graduate if they haven’t already. He’s already at 22, so if he keeps doing what he is doing he’s very likely to be at least at #19.

Other guys who might graduate off it (but also might not) include Shane Baz, Adley Rutschman, Riley Greene, Oneil Cruz, Gabriel Moreno, and CJ Abrams. If we assume that 2 of the 5 will graduate and Henderson keeps steady, then he’ll be at #17.

I think it’s also fair to think that if he keeps performing, he’ll move out of the FV55 bucket and into FV60, which would move him ahead of Jordan Walker, Triston Casas, and Marcelo Mayer (unless they move up too; Walker very well might. I suspect Luciano will move up to FV60 as well, so I didn’t even list him). Let’s say he moves ahead of Casas and Mayer. That would put him at #15, potentially a touch higher. I’d say that most likely, this is where I’d be comfortable projecting him.

But if Henderson is continuing to run a ridiculous batting line at AAA like he did at AA, or even something in the same range as that, the sky is the limit. Look at the position players from #1-#14 who haven’t gotten to the majors–Alvarez, Carroll, Greene, Volpe, Marte, and Jung. If he’s running a .200/.400/.500 batting line in AAA (which might not happen, but he’s actually doing something like it at the moment in his small sample AAA stint and did better at AA) it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that any of them definitively deserve to be listed over Henderson. In this scenario, I think it’s quite plausible he gets ranked above Volpe, Marte, Abrams, and Jung, leaving him in a cluster with (hypothetically) Greene, Alvarez, Carroll, possibly Cruz and Moreno, and the Baz/Perez/Espino/Rodriguez grouping. I’m not sure how you would order that grouping, so he could go quite high.

So to sum it up, I think I would feel comfortable saying he’ll wind up around #15 next year. But although it’s unlikely he’d be a Top 5 prospect, I see how he could get there and there’s no real ceiling on it.

 

 

[waroriole]

Can someone explain Volpe to me? He hit some HR last year, but hasn’t shown the same this year. Inexplicably, he’s moved up the prospect list. It’s always fun/easy to just blame it on playing for the Yankees, but is there something I’m missing? Is he a plus defender at SS?

[deward]

 

[Just Regular]

So much for the 0-for-4 night.

Down two, he probably should have just singled or doubled to get the reliever into the stretch.

[jdwilde1]

Question for those who have seen Gunner play a decent amount at shortstop.  What’s his defensive potential?  Is he plus, average, below average but won’t kill you, or not a legit major league shortstop?  I’ve only seen highlights, so he looks good from what I’ve seen, but who doesn’t if you just see theor highlights?

[ChosenOne21]

10 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Question for those who have seen Gunner play a decent amount at shortstop.  What’s his defensive potential?  Is he plus, average, below average but won’t kill you, or not a legit major league shortstop?  I’ve only seen highlights, so he looks good from what I’ve seen, but who doesn’t if you just see theor highlights?

Haven't seen him, but from what I've heard it's somewhere between average/below average but won't kill you and in a handful of years probably won't be a major league shortstop

[LTO's]

10 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Question for those who have seen Gunner play a decent amount at shortstop.  What’s his defensive potential?  Is he plus, average, below average but won’t kill you, or not a legit major league shortstop?  I’ve only seen highlights, so he looks good from what I’ve seen, but who doesn’t if you just see theor highlights?

Fangraphs just did a little write up on Henderson. Has him as a top 25 prospect now and mentioned that there are scouts/analyst that think he's a big league SS. Eric Longenhagen thinks he'll have to move off SS but will be a plus 3B. Kid has really transformed himself into a blue chip prospect. 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tuesday-prospect-notes-a-few-top-100-tweaks/

[sportsfan8703]

If Gunnar isn’t our 3B next year then who is?  That might be why he plays 3B. Westburg can play SS. Vavra and Urias are both 2B options when healthy. Mayo might not stick at 3B and his timeline is looking like mid 2024ish. 

[seak05]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Gunnar isn’t our 3B next year then who is?  That might be why he plays 3B. Westburg can play SS. Vavra and Urias are both 2B options when healthy. Mayo might not stick at 3B and his timeline is looking like mid 2024ish. 

I think Gunnar has more defensive upside at SS then Westburg, so I think those two would flip, but maybe not. 

Another ho-hum day 1-2 with 2BB (and I believe the double was against a lefty)

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Gunnar isn’t our 3B next year then who is?  That might be why he plays 3B. Westburg can play SS. Vavra and Urias are both 2B options when healthy. Mayo might not stick at 3B and his timeline is looking like mid 2024ish. 

I dunno.  You'll have to get someone for the first month and a half of the season who so they can game his service clock, ain't that right @Can_of_corn?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I dunno.  You'll have to get someone for the first month and a half of the season who so they can game his service clock, ain't that right @Can_of_corn?

Probably.

Waiver claim.

[Aglets]

I'm sure Ryan Flaherty is available to hold the fort down for a bit.

[scarey1999]

Brad Johnson with MLBTR seems to think Gunnar is a shoo-in to make the top 10 on the MLB Pipeline list, next time they do a revision. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/06/big-hype-prospects-henderson-harris-de-la-cruz-brash-valera.html

[emmett16]

I got a chance to see Henderson play in person for the first time today.  I’ve watched dozens of his games on TV but hadn’t had a chance to see him play live.   My observations are the following:

-he must have some incredible vision.  His pitch selection is incredible.  He doesn’t even flinch at a pitch he decides not to swing at.  It’s as if he makes his decision the moment the ball comes out of the pitcher's hand. 

-he is a big dude!  He’s tall and muscular.
-he’s fast and hustles. 
-pitchers want nothing to with him.  Words out, if it’s in the zone, it’s getting hit hard.  Had 2 walks and would have had 3 were it not for a bad call in the AB that led to the K

-his swing is a thing of beauty.   compact and powerful.  
 

He didn’t get any hits on the day, but I came away incredibly impressed.  It looks like we have a bonafide impact player on our hands.  He DH’d today, so unfortunately didn’t get to see him in the field.  I’m very excited to see him play again and can’t wait to see him in Baltimore. 

[Frobby]

On 5/5/2022 at 5:05 PM, Frobby said:

Here’s a fun comparison, Henderson vs. Bobby Witt Jr. in AA at age 20.   For reference, though they graduated high school the same year, Witt is a year + 15 days older than Henderson.   So, Henderson 2022 compares to Witt 2021 age-wise.   

Round 2 comparison now that Gunnar is in AAA.

Witt AA: .295/.369/.570, 16 HR 51 RBI in 61 games, 279 PA

Henderson AA: .312/.452/.573, 8 HR 35 RBI in 47 games, 208 PA

Witt AAA: .285/.352/.581, 17 HR 46 RBI in 63 games, 285 PA

Henderson AAA: .300/.482/.525, 2 HR 8 RBI in 12 games, 54 PA

Witt a little stronger with the power numbers, Henderson a bit better with the BA and putting up an otherworldly OBP this year.   Obviously, very SSS at AAA for Gunnar at this point.