2022 17th Round Pick (#497): Carter Young - SS - (JR) Vanderbilt (TN)

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Hazmat said:

If it makes you feel better, Creed Willems got $1M last year.

It makes Creed Willems feel better. 

[Number5]

29 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Lot of money to spend on a guy who likely wont hit .250 at Bowie.  Ever.

Wait... so now we are complaining that the Orioles are spending too much money on prospects?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Wait... so now we are complaining that the Orioles are spending too much money on prospects?

First he complained that were weren't signing enough of the guys we drafted.  Then we announced one and he complained that it was too much.   Tough crowd!

[Frobby]

$1.325 mm Is $50 k less than we paid Johnny Rhodes last year.   Another guy who was highly touted going into the season before the draft but had a poor season that sent his stock downward.   

[Gurgi]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Wait... so now we are complaining that the Orioles are spending too much money on prospects?

Seems a lot of money to a guy who lost his starting spot this year.  Even his best season a year before last he only hit .250.  

[terpfan101]

1 minute ago, Gurgi said:

Seems a lot of money to a guy who lost his starting spot this year.  Even his best season a year before last he only hit .250.  

It's not any of our money

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It makes Creed Willems feel better. 

God bless Creed Willems. He was able to convince an organization to give him $1 million because he had good EVs.  But this is not his thread so we'll focus on Carter Young who just convinced the Orioles to ignore a .206 average and a pretty high strike out rate against college pitching for his tools.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

God bless Creed Willems. He was able to convince an organization to give him $1 million because he had good EVs.  But this is not his thread so we'll focus on Carter Young who just convinced the Orioles to ignore a .206 average and a pretty high strike out rate against college pitching for his tools.

I doubt the Orioles needed any convincing.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Wait... so now we are complaining that the Orioles are spending too much money on prospects?

Well I can't speak for Gurgi, but I have my concerns over who they spending their money on. I'm hopeful that they think they have some amazing system that can turn sub par college players into great pros, but I've seen guys put up much better numbers with similar tools struggle in the minors so when I start seeing guys who did perform at all last season, get million dollar contracts, I have issues.

I used to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after Creed Willems, they don't get that from me no more. 

Now, they have way more information then I do about these kids, but I like to see some production on the field before players get the big money. Tools don't tell you how they can track a breaking ball. But hitting .206 with a high k rate a pedestrian walk rate tells me he struggled against non-professional pitching.

We'll see. You can have all the tools in the world and can hit the snot out of a BP fastball for great EVs, but game play against quality competition is usually the best true predictor of future success at the major league level.

[terpfan101]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well I can't speak for Gurgi, but I have my concerns over who they spending their money on. I'm hopeful that they think they have some amazing system that can turn sub par college players into great pros, but I've seen guys put up much better numbers with similar tools struggle in the minors so when I start seeing guys who did perform at all last season, get million dollar contracts, I have issues.

I used to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after Creed Willems, they don't get that from me no more. 

Now, they have way more information then I do about these kids, but I like to see some production on the field before players get the big money. Tools don't tell you how they can track a breaking ball. But hitting .206 with a high k rate a pedestrian walk rate tells me he struggled against non-professional pitching.

We'll see. You can have all the tools in the world and can hit the snot out of a BP fastball for great EVs, but game play against quality competition is usually the best true predictor of future success at the major league level.

One big difference is Creed was out of high school and Young played D1 baseball at an elite school in an elite conference and had success his first two seasons. 

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well I can't speak for Gurgi, but I have my concerns over who they spending their money on. I'm hopeful that they think they have some amazing system that can turn sub par college players into great pros, but I've seen guys put up much better numbers with similar tools struggle in the minors so when I start seeing guys who did perform at all last season, get million dollar contracts, I have issues.

I used to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after Creed Willems, they don't get that from me no more. 

Now, they have way more information then I do about these kids, but I like to see some production on the field before players get the big money. Tools don't tell you how they can track a breaking ball. But hitting .206 with a high k rate a pedestrian walk rate tells me he struggled against non-professional pitching.

We'll see. You can have all the tools in the world and can hit the snot out of a BP fastball for great EVs, but game play against quality competition is usually the best true predictor of future success at the major league level.

I don't know.  Seems like the guy is pretty well thought of.  Was projected first round pick pre-season.  Seems like a high-risk/high-reward pick to me in late rounds.  I like it.  Is it a sure thing?  Of course not.  I'm happy to see the Orioles taking a shot like this.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Number5

[baltfan]

If I recall this kid was recovering from a shoulder injury this year.  There is a thread super excited about Joey Diaz who struggled mightily earlier this year seemingly because recovering from shoulder issues. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well I can't speak for Gurgi, but I have my concerns over who they spending their money on. I'm hopeful that they think they have some amazing system that can turn sub par college players into great pros, but I've seen guys put up much better numbers with similar tools struggle in the minors so when I start seeing guys who did perform at all last season, get million dollar contracts, I have issues.

I used to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after Creed Willems, they don't get that from me no more. 

Now, they have way more information then I do about these kids, but I like to see some production on the field before players get the big money. Tools don't tell you how they can track a breaking ball. But hitting .206 with a high k rate a pedestrian walk rate tells me he struggled against non-professional pitching.

We'll see. You can have all the tools in the world and can hit the snot out of a BP fastball for great EVs, but game play against quality competition is usually the best true predictor of future success at the major league level.

After Stowers, Westburg, Ortiz, Rhodes, Cowser, etc, you are going to hang them for Willems who played in full season ball as an 18/19 year old?   Really?   They could have put Willems in the FCL and it would have been perfectly reasonable for a player with little experience who didn't even turn 19 until June.    For that, you won't give them the benefit of the doubt?   You're tough, Tony.

The odds are against most of these guys to begin with.   I'd say they have had more successes than failures and what failures are we talking about.   Zach Watson?   Okay.  That's one.   Daschbach?   Neither was over a million.    Are we expecting every college player to be a star?   What's the standard?      Players you might count as failures like Haskin has an .800 OPS in AA.   

 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I don't know.  Seems like the guy is pretty well thought of.  Was projected first round pick pre-season.  Seems like a high-risk/high-reward pick to me in late rounds.  I like it.  Is it a sure thing?  Of course not.  I'm happy to see the Orioles taking a shot like this.

If that's the direction they want to go, then great, let's see how it works out. Slashing .207/.327/.383/.710 with a 30BB-66K ratio in 228 PAs seems like a red flag for me, but I'm just looking at the numbers. I've always subscribed to the theory that good numbers against inferior competition doesn't always tell you a lot, but putting up bad numbers against that competition does.

Now would I rather him and his tools vs no one, sure. But maybe the money they saved to try and get him could have been used for better players earlier in the draft where they saved money?

I'm not against this pick, nor am I saying I know more than the Orioles who selected him, I'm just saying that me personally, I want to see a guy tearing up the competition, not crapping the bed against it and that's exactly what he did in his junior year. I've seen way too many times guys get drafted who lit it up early in their careers only to fall off, then get drafted by a team who thinks they got lucky and can fix them.

Remember Vanderbilt 3B Jason Esposito who slashed .340/.403/.530/.933 as a draft eligible Sophomore who was also supposed to be a defensive wiz at 3B? remember he was supposed to be a 1st rounder but fell to the Orioles in the 2nd round and was a complete bust?

Now, completely different development staff, but until these guys drafted by Elias start coming up and having success at the major league level (not counting Rutschman) the jury is still out on how they draft and develop. 

I have zero issues with taking high/risk high reward guys occasion, and I'm happy this one is at least an athlete unlike Willems who is an overweight, bad body kid, but I'm just going on record as saying I'm not a fan of taking guys who had poor years in college and giving them a ton of money (Fabian and Young).

Hopefully I will be proven wrong.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

After Stowers, Westburg, Ortiz, Rhodes, Cowser, etc, you are going to hang them for Willems who played in full season ball as an 18/19 year old?   Really?   They could have put Willems in the FCL and it would have been perfectly reasonable for a player with little experience who didn't even turn 19 until June.    For that, you won't give them the benefit of the doubt?   You're tough, Tony.

The odds are against most of these guys to begin with.   I'd say they have had more successes than failures and what failures are we talking about.   Zach Watson?   Okay.  That's one.   Daschbach?   Neither was over a million.    Are we expecting every college player to be a star?   What's the standard?      Players you might count as failures like Haskin has an .800 OPS in AA.   

 

First, what have Stowers, Westburg, Ortiz, Rhodes, Cowser, etc done at the major league level? Nada. So until they do something, the jury is still out on their selections. Do I like that at different levels, sure, but let's not start taking victory laps until we see what they do at the major league level. BTW, Westburg is struggling badly in AAA after never really putting up great numbers in AA besides a hot streak here and there.

And no, I will not give them the benefit of the doubt and put a guy in my top 30 based off their bonus because they are the organization that gave Willems $1 million. Most in the industry scratched their heads with that selection, but I went ahead an "gave them the benefit of the doubt" that they knew something others didn't and put him in my top 30. They made me look like a fool for putting an overweight bad body kid in the top 30 when i did it based off his bonus.

Never again.

It's kinda like Maikol Hernandez and Braylin Tavera. Big money so they got the benefit of the doubt, but now I'm going to make them put up some numbers in the pros first. This isn't a hit on the International scouting staff since the system down there makes you make decisions in 14 and 15 year olds, but just that I'm no longer going to put guys on these lists based off their bonuses.

Now could Young have been hurt most of the year and that's why he struggled so bad, perhaps. If so, he should hit well right off the bat in pro ball assuming he's healthy now. Maybe the Orioles keep him back, strengthen is shoulder and we don't see the real him until next year when he'll be 22. Pehaps.

Again, I'm not against the kid. I hope he does well, but no, I'm not giving this scouting staff the benefit of the doubt just because they gave them a big bonus. Especially if the kid is coming off a poor season or is a HS kid that few thought was worth the money.