Do we actually need a TOR starter?

[Sports Guy]

I think all of us have been in agreement that we need a TOR starter.  They are good to have, no doubt and in a short series, they can be invaluable if they are on their game.

That being said, how big of a need is it really for the Os?

Let me pause for a moment on this and take this outside of baseball.  In other sports, having an elite player can cover up mistakes.  You don’t always need great WR if you have Tom Brady.  You don’t always need a great PG if you have LeBron James.  You don’t always need a great goal scorer if you have in their prime Martin Brodeur.

In baseball, the way you can cover up deficiencies can be the elements or other variables.

This year, the Orioles have had a lot of success with a bunch of no name pitchers.  They have not only developed them well but the introduction of the humidor everywhere and, more importantly, the new wall in OPACY has helped out these guys a lot and has helped level the playing field. 
 

Now, I am of the opinion that you do need to add a very good starter because you aren’t always going to be in OPACY, you aren’t always going to get production from these guys, etc…but it may also mean you don’t need to hit the home run and sign Verlander or trade a boat load of prospects for a top guy because you can get similar production for a fraction of the cost because of the other variables.

There is a lot of debate of who should be in the rotation next year and there is no question we will be relying on guys that should make everyone nervous.  The other side to that is, you may be able to get by with less going forward and that means you put more resources into the offense and defense.

 

[eddie83]

I just can’t see for starters the Orioles offering a huge contract to a pitcher. Yes, I know they have talked about spending more but still. 
 

Haven’t had the time today but if I do I was going to make a new post about some players I would have interest in. 
 

We see every year how important depth is. Just look at the Dodgers. It’s nice to have swing and miss stuff in October. That said just look at how important the pen was to the Braves last year. In general I agree although it would be nice we do not need a TOR starter but it would certainly make things easier. I see a trade or mid level and/ or older less years SP via FA. 

[RZNJ]

I am shocked. Absolutely shocked.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I just can’t see for starters the Orioles offering a huge contract to a pitcher. Yes, I know they have talked about spending more but still. 
 

Haven’t had the time today but if I do I was going to make a new post about some players I would have interest in. 
 

We see every year how important depth is. Just look at the Dodgers. It’s nice to have swing and miss stuff in October. That said just look at how important the pen was to the Braves last year. In general I agree although it would be nice we do not need a TOR starter but it would certainly make things easier. I see a trade or mid level and/ or older less years SP via FA. 

Depth we have.  I’m not concerned about depth.

The question is more about the top of the rotation.  Do we have enough and if we don’t, does the guy(s) we bring in have to be true 1 or 2 guys or can you get more 2/3 type guys?  
 

I have advocated Clevinger and Lopez in the past.  I am cooling on Clevinger and will only go so much on Lopez.  There are other worthy arms.  But do you pay 15M a year for a guy like Bassitt or Montas?  Is that much of a help?  Or, the other side to that, are they good enough to where you don’t spend big money or prospects? 

I don’t know..it’s a big question.  This wall and the down offenses are really potential game changers over the long haul.

For me, i think this is a worthy discussion but I ultimately don’t trust some of the arms we have enough to not add a real starter or 2.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Sports Guy

[clapdiddy]

I think the O's have been let down from the offense more than the pitching this season.

However, I don't think we can rely on the current staff to replicate this season.   I would probably prefer to go after one arm in trade, and one in FA, then supplement with guys currently on the roster.   I don't think an "ace" is necessary, but would certainly be a "nice to have".   Who knows, maybe Grayson becomes that guy?   

I like the idea of having capable starters that keep you in games, then having an excellent bullpen.  I think stockpiling guys in AA/AAA with one very good/excellent pitch and developing secondary pitches that are good is the way to go for relievers.   That seems to be one thing that Elias and his staff have done well.

[joelala]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Depth we have.  I’m not concerned about depth.

The question is more about the top of the rotation.  Do we have enough and if we don’t, does the guy(s) we bring in have to be true 1 or 2 guys or can you get more 2/3 type guys?  
 

I have advocated Clevinger and Lopez in the past.  I am cooling on Clevinger and will only go so much on Lopez.  There are other worthy arms.  But do you pay 15M a year for a guy like Bassitt or Montas?  Is that much of a help?  Or, the other side to that, are they good enough to where you don’t spend big money or prospects? 

I don’t know..it’s a big question.  This wall and the down offenses are really potential game changers.

For me, i think this is a worthy discussion but I ultimately don’t trust some of the arms we have enough to not add a real starter or 2.

No you don’t pay for bassit or montas. Absolutely not Montas. Verlander is my number one target because he may be willing to take a high AAV one year deal. He’s a sure thing in that one year.  I also think it would be very valuable to have Grayson et. Al watch the way one of the best pitchers ever works. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, joelala said:

No you don’t pay for bassit or montas. Absolutely not Montas. Verlander is my number one target because he may be willing to take a high AAV one year deal. He’s a sure thing in that one year.  I also think it would be very valuable to have Grayson et. Al watch the way one of the best pitchers ever works. 

Verlander will get 2 or even 3 years.  

[Rbiggs2525]

Name I’ve been kicking around recently  is Shane Bieber. He is right at the time Cleveland would trade him with 2 arb years left. 

[DrungoHazewood]

It's always helpful to have a great player on your team.  But, no, you don't have to have a Cy Young candidate to win.  The '14 Orioles won 96 in the AL East with Chris Tillman as their #1.  The '15 Royals won the Series with not only Edison Volquez as their top starter, but Jeremy Guthrie was third in innings and starts.  They traded for Cueto at the deadline, and he went 4-7, 4.76.

Did anyone on the '21 Braves count as a TOR?  Morton was 37 and has only gotten a handful of Cy Young votes in one year.

Yes, it would be nice to have someone go 18-5 with a 2.20 and 240 strikeouts.  But it's not the end of the world if the O's don't sign a guy like that to a 8/240 deal.

[btdart20]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I am shocked. Absolutely shocked.

Same.  Two great starts in a row despite a marginal year from the rotation.

 

@Sports Guy - define the context of "need".  Is this just to show up to the dance?  Or to be in consideration for Prom King?  

If we just want to make it to the dance, then no.  We can get there with solid depth and positional value.  No 'need' for a TOR SP.

If we're gunning for Prom King, then yes.  The 3, 5, and 7 game series puts more weight to the TOR SP.  Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's always helpful to have a great player on your team.  But, no, you don't have to have a Cy Young candidate to win.  The '14 Orioles won 96 in the AL East with Chris Tillman as their #1.  The '15 Royals won the Series with not only Edison Volquez as their top starter, but Jeremy Guthrie was third in innings and starts.  They traded for Cueto at the deadline, and he went 4-7, 4.76.

Did anyone on the '21 Braves count as a TOR?  Morton was 37 and has only gotten a handful of Cy Young votes in one year.

Yes, it would be nice to have someone go 18-5 with a 2.20 and 240 strikeouts.  But it's not the end of the world if the O's don't sign a guy like that to a 8/240 deal.

Yea I think a lot of this is correct.  As you said, great talent is always welcomed.

The question is, what should you be willing to pay for that knowing that you have outside variables that allow guys to be better than perhaps they really are.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Same.  Two great starts in a row despite a marginal year from the rotation.

 

@Sports Guy - define the context of "need".  Is this just to show up to the dance?  Or to be in consideration for Prom King?  

If we just want to make it to the dance, then no.  We can get there with solid depth and positional value.  No 'need' for a TOR SP.

If we're gunning for Prom King, then yes.  The 3, 5, and 7 game series puts more weight to the TOR SP.  Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships.

 

This is largely true but we have also seen plenty of TOr guys fail in the playoffs and seen the Morton type guys thrive.  

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Verlander will get 2 or even 3 years.  

Fine by me.  Still in our window of low payroll and a need for pitching.

[joelala]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Verlander will get 2 or even 3 years.  

I could see a world in which he takes a few one year deals to maximize his earning. He seems pretty confident in himself. 

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

This is largely true but we have also seen plenty of TOr guys fail in the playoffs and seen the Morton type guys thrive.  

Ground Chuck has been a very good/TOR type pitcher since 2017 (tossing out 2020 because it was wacky all over).   ERA+ of 121 during that span.  3.39 FIP.