Orioles 2022 #14 Prospect Jud Fabian - OF

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So I guess another question is, once you’ve evaluated raw power, what decides what future value for game power is?   And how do future grades for raw power suddenly increase?

Let’s take Westburg.  Last year he was evaluated as a guy with 45 raw power, 50 future raw power, 40/50 current/future game power.  Now a year later he’s seen as 55/60 raw power, 50/55 game power.   So what happened here?

Same with Norby. 40/45 raw, 35/45 game power a year ago.  Now he’s 50/60 raw, 50/60 game power.  If a guy had 45 future raw power a year ago, how can he be a 60 a year later?  Just a scouting miss, or did something specific happen here?
 

I think you can absolutely add raw power, though it takes a lot of effort and focus.  A guy like Westburg, who by all accounts has off the chart's mental make-up, is the perfect candidate to outperform their initial raw power rankings.  I think a lot has to do with how you project growth of a kid that's 17-22.  Some kids have late growth spurts, other kids spend entire off-season putting on 10lb of muscle and adding 4mph to the EV #s so the scouting reports can vary season to season in the very beginning of their careers.  

[Tony-OH]

Added 2022 pro highlights to his profile in OP.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I think you can absolutely add raw power, though it takes a lot of effort and focus.  A guy like Westburg, who by all accounts has off the chart's mental make-up, is the perfect candidate to outperform their initial raw power rankings.  I think a lot has to do with how you project growth of a kid that's 17-22.  Some kids have late growth spurts, other kids spend entire off-season putting on 10lb of muscle and adding 4mph to the EV #s so the scouting reports can vary season to season in the very beginning of their careers.  

I think a player's raw power could be masked by their approach and that could cause evaluators to misjudge it.

[LookinUp]

Kid has everything but the hit tool.

The question is whether that's a function of Florida's program or something that's a deeper problem. 

[Absltgreek]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Kid has everything but the hit tool.

The question is whether that's a function of Florida's program or something that's a deeper problem. 

I feel like I have some vague memory of reading or discussing here how there was an issue with Florida's program and hitting, or some problem with the team? I could have also just manifested that somehow and mixed it up with something else i've read... (this was specifically discussing Fabian's hitting at Florida though, I wish I could recall...)

Edited November 21, 2022 by Absltgreek

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:

I feel like I have some vague memory of reading or discussing here how there was an issue with Florida's program and hitting, or some problem with the team? I could have also just manifested that somehow and mixed it up with something else i've read... (this was specifically discussing Fabian's hitting at Florida though, I wish I could recall...)

I bet @Jammer7has some first hand knowledge of the UF hitting philosophy?

[LookinUp]

10 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:

I feel like I have some vague memory of reading or discussing here how there was an issue with Florida's program and hitting, or some problem with the team? I could have also just manifested that somehow and mixed it up with something else i've read... (this was specifically discussing Fabian's hitting at Florida though, I wish I could recall...)

I remember someone calling it into question. Not sure if it was excuse making for Fabian or something real. 

I'm sure that all college hitting programs are not created equal. That's for sure.

[Jammer7]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I bet @Jammer7has some first hand knowledge of the UF hitting philosophy?

Not first-hand, but let’s just say they had several kids the past 5-6 years go there who were studs. Guys who were supposed to be no doubt first round picks when they left UF. Nearly all regressed badly, some have given up the game completely. They used to develop their kids well, but it seems cementing the legend of a coach has taken over. Other teams in the SEC do both, and UF used to do it. 

There is a cultural issue there more than anything. The video RZ shared where Jud spoke of the pressure at UF kinda hits on it. Probably best to leave it at that.