Jackson Holliday 2023

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Sorry.  Somebody had to do it.  

Incredibly hard if you’re Scott Hatteberg. Not if you’re already a 3B

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Incredibly hard if you’re Scott Hatteberg. Not if you’re already a 3B

The meme about the toe aside, Mark Reynolds was not an adroit fielder at first.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The meme about the toe aside, Mark Reynolds was not an adroit fielder at first.

Well, he wasn’t at 3B either, was he? -10.8 UZR/150 on his career at 3B and -2.8 at 1B. (OAA doesn’t go back far enough.)

That’s about exactly in line for what you would expect the conversion difference to be by cutting out the throws. A bad 3B is still going to be a bad 1B, but perhaps less bad.

I suppose if you had a guy whose only good quality was his arm and his range was poor and he didn’t adapt to picks at 1B, that’s not a good candidate for a 3B->1B conversion. But if anything that describes Mayo and not Westburg. 

[scarey1999]

1-2 with his 3rd HR today along with 2 walks.  

Guess I was wrong when I said in this thread a few weeks ago when he was promoted, that he’d need a couple of weeks to adjust to AA. 

[Alasdaire]

He had a fever, and the only prescription was more hits.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Well, he wasn’t at 3B either, was he? -10.8 UZR/150 on his career at 3B and -2.8 at 1B. (OAA doesn’t go back far enough.)

That’s about exactly in line for what you would expect the conversion difference to be by cutting out the throws. A bad 3B is still going to be a bad 1B, but perhaps less bad.

I suppose if you had a guy whose only good quality was his arm and his range was poor and he didn’t adapt to picks at 1B, that’s not a good candidate for a 3B->1B conversion. But if anything that describes Mayo and not Westburg. 

He played more games at 3B than any other position so yea, he was a third baseman.

[Hallas]

17 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

I think the infield defense with the highest ceiling is 1B Mayo/2B Holliday/3B Gunnar/SS Ortiz.

Joey is the best defender at the most important position, Gunnar has the arm/range for third, Mayo has the length and infield experience for first, and Jackson kind of defaults to second but that's not as disappointing as it used to be with the shift ban increasing the ground that needs to be covered there. That could be a dang good infield.

I'm not trying to disregard Westburg and Norby, just saying what I think is the best possible alignment we could field.

It's tough to make predictions on who exactly gets traded, but barring injury, I'd be absolutely shocked if at least 2 out of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Kjerstad, and Mayo aren't traded this offseason or at the latest in the 2024/25 offsesson.

[Rbiggs2525]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

It's tough to make predictions on who exactly gets traded, but barring injury, I'd be absolutely shocked if at least 2 out of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Kjerstad, and Mayo aren't traded this offseason or at the latest in the 2024/25 offsesson.

Why? Wouldn’t they just replace the players graduating for free agency and arbitration?

[luismatos4prez]

8 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Why? Wouldn’t they just replace the players graduating for free agency and arbitration?

Angelos's Razor says "The cheapest possible future is the most likely one." 

So I agree. I think it's more likely Hays and Santander are traded.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He played more games at 3B than any other position so yea, he was a third baseman.

I know he was a 3B, but he wasn’t good at 3B, that’s what I was saying. A bad 3B like Reynolds won’t magically be a good 1B just because 1B requires similar skills but is easier to play without the throws across the diamond. But a 3B who has the requisite size shouldn’t have a hard time playing 1B relative to 3B, and they’ll likely play it better than they play 3B (like Reynolds did, despite him not being a good 1B either). 

[Hallas]

48 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Why? Wouldn’t they just replace the players graduating for free agency and arbitration?

Even if you look to deal Hays, Santander, or Mullins you still have a lot of outfielders.  If Bradfield develops that's another one to add to the mix for 2025/2026.  And we still have 5 infielders for 3 infield positions, not including Urias who is super valuable right now as a super utility guy.  Putting one of them at first base or RF seems like a terrible use of resources.  And we eventually will have more prospects that rise up. 

[DocJJ]

What he's doing in his first full pro season is just unbelievable...  OPS > 1.000

 

Anyone know his lefty/righty splits?  

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

What he's doing in his first full pro season is just unbelievable...  OPS > 1.000

 

Anyone know his lefty/righty splits?  

1.036 OPS v RHP .845 OPS v LHP

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

It's tough to make predictions on who exactly gets traded, but barring injury, I'd be absolutely shocked if at least 2 out of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Kjerstad, and Mayo aren't traded this offseason or at the latest in the 2024/25 offsesson.

I'm not in the predictions business either, but my impression of the front office after this trade deadline is that they'll make a moves if they present themselves but not simply because they can.

It became a meme that every single reporter was linking the Orioles to rumors for no actual reason other than because they have the farm system and these supposed logjams. But they've had this farm system for at least two cycles now where contention was a real possibility and that hasn't compelled them to dismantle it. And logjams have a way of working themselves out as players regress, get injured, demand trades, etc.

Once we go through a postseason (or two), it will become clear what our weaknesses are in a way that isn't as apparent now. That might reveal a need that compels them to make a trade. Or maybe they're presented with value they can't pass up. But it doesn't seem like they're in any rush to spin their wheels just for the sake of it.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

I'm not in the predictions business either, but my impression of the front office after this trade deadline is that they'll make a moves if they present themselves but not simply because they can.

It became a meme that every single reporter was linking the Orioles to rumors for no actual reason other than because they have the farm system and these supposed logjams. But they've had this farm system for at least two cycles now where contention was a real possibility and that hasn't compelled them to dismantle it. And logjams have a way of working themselves out as players regress, get injured, demand trades, etc.

Once we go through a postseason (or two), it will become clear what our weaknesses are in a way that isn't as apparent now. That might reveal a need that compels them to make a trade. Or maybe they're presented with value they can't pass up. But it doesn't seem like they're in any rush to spin their wheels just for the sake of it.

I get why you'd think that the O's aren't going to be desperate to get rid of some of their prospects, but we'd have to have some catastrophic injuries for us to need to rely on that depth at the major league level.  Barring that, it's going to be really hard for a lot of those guys to continue building value since we don't have a spot for them in the major league lineup in 2024.

 

It feels like a better option to sell some of them with helium even if your value isn't great.  If you end up suffering key injuries you can sell guys like Mullins or Hays at the deadline for more prospects.

 

No matter what, our pathway to continued success depends on our player development pipeline so if that ever dries up we're going to suck.  So I'd rather optimize for our current situation rather than hold onto guys "just in case."

Edited August 7, 2023 by Hallas