Ben Verlander: Os on cusp of dynasty…if they buy in

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, oriole said:

John Angelos is riding this gravy train til the appropriate time to sell. I have no doubt that there will always be an excuse why the Orioles can’t spend on free agents or extensions. He’s already basically ruled out a Rutschman extension, so the key is to win during the window that he’s here. Without a significant payroll increase we’ll be looking at a perennial wild card chaser…which is satisfactory considering where the team has been in recent history. I’d rather see this “dynasty” idea come into fruition but let’s face it, John is solely running the O’s to maximize profit, which is his right. He’s hired the right guy to do it and has already painted the organization as a bottom tier market when he compared the team to the Rays and Pirates. Luckily Elias is on board or I’d feel rather hopeless.

 

 

This kind of interview is probably VERY upsetting to John Angelos.  He does not like anyone pressuring him to spend his money.  

[Bemorewins]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would think after one black eye after another you’d be pretty happy with a winning team headed in the direction of competing for the playoffs over the next 4-5 years with a chance to maintain that for a longer period of time.   That doesn’t abandon a chance for a WS appearance or championship.

BTW, I’m 63 and this might be the most enjoyable time I’ve had as an Orioles fan with the ability to watch virtually any Oriole game I wish to, watch the minor league games, and get up to date information on any major or minor league player.   You don’t know how good you’ve got it!

Angelos hired Elias and got out of his way.   Best thing the Orioles organization has done in 40-50 years.

They did it your way in the late 90’s.  Hired Pat Gillick and bought the best team money could buy.  ZERO WS appearances followed by years of the worst team money could buy.

I am very happy with where we are. But am I not satisfied. And I certainly don't want us to stay where we are.

Oh I remember the days before HTS, grew up pretty poor and we didn't have cable and we only had 1 black and white portable tv for a time during my childhood. For many Orioles games when I was young, I had to consume through radio. So yes I very much enjoy the technological advancements of the time and the means that I have now that help me consume the Orioles much different than I did then.

My way is NOT the way of the days of Pat Gillick or Frank Wren, where we had so much organizational dysfunction that ultimately led to Davey Johnson leaving. 

I'm not sure what I have said before caused you to believe that I have advocated for having the best team that money could buy? But I do want any owner of a billion dollar business to not cry poor and to make serious investments in the on-field product. To say that the evil Angelos Empire has gotten out of the way is true, but it also doesn't address the other side of that coin. Ownership is so far "out of the way" that they have yet to actually aid Elias' efforts in giving him a REAL professional budget for the big league team. I surely hope that we don't stay at the 29th payroll or even in the bottom 5 or 10.

As I stated before, it will be extremely difficult next to impossible for us to sustain excellence and serious contention over the long haul in the absence of ownership support. I don't think staying out of the way will cut it when it's time to pay Adley and others.

[Bemorewins]

33 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It is actually not a view of Angelos at all.   I'm concerned he will ruin everything by blocking Elias.  My point is I don't think there has been anything to block yet, as nothing that has or has not been done to this point is inconsistent with the Astros model. 

 If the Orioles are where they are at now in the standings in July - will Elias be allowed to add significant salary (something equivalent to a Verlander type of acquisition) to try to put them over the top - that will be the first time whether or not Elias will be allowed to fully implement the Astros like approach will be tested. 

I see no lies being told here or anything that I can disagree with.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I am very happy with where we are. But am I not satisfied. And I certainly don't want us to stay where we are.

Oh I remember the days before HTS, grew up pretty poor and we didn't have cable and we only had 1 black and white portable tv for a time during my childhood. For many Orioles games when I was young, I had to consume through radio. So yes I very much enjoy the technological advancements of the time and the means that I have now that help me consume the Orioles much different than I did then.

My way is NOT the way of the days of Pat Gillick or Frank Wren, where we had so much organizational dysfunction that ultimately led to Davey Johnson leaving. 

I'm not sure what I have said before caused you to believe that I have advocated for having the best team that money could buy? But I do want any owner of a billion dollar business to not cry poor and to make serious investments in the on-field product. To say that the evil Angelos Empire has gotten out of the way is true, but it also doesn't address the other side of that coin. Ownership is so far "out of the way" that they have yet to actually aid Elias' efforts in giving him a REAL professional budget for the big league team. I surely hope that we don't stay at the 29th payroll or even in the bottom 5 or 10.

As I stated before, it will be extremely difficult next to impossible for us to sustain excellence and serious contention over the long haul in the absence of ownership support. I don't think staying out of the way will cut it when it's time to pay Adley and others.

You’ll be less unhappy if you just go with zero expectations that Rutschman is extended.   Just hope that the best 6 years of his career and a possible haul if he’s dealt in year 5.   The Rays have made it work with an under 100M payroll.   You better hope we can too.

[AnythingO's]

I really tried to stay out of this discussion but I have failed. Frobby is correct, JA did say “[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

However JA also said "we should be measured by how much we drive all of our profits back into the product on the field. And I think Mike Elias, Brandon Hyde, and this partnership group of all local people have done that." That is AFTER 2 seasons where he pocketed $150M and ME said "lift of" and then didn't.

Salaries slightly above last year's rock bottom so I guess we do know what system JA has ME operating in.

He also promised to open the books, twice and then said "I don't know many companies that do that, that look at how the sausage is made."

JA's words are meaningless and his actions speak volumes.

[Bemorewins]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’ll be less unhappy if you just go with zero expectations that Rutschman is extended.   Just hope that the best 6 years of his career and a possible haul if he’s dealt in year 5.   The Rays have made it work with an under 100M payroll.   You better hope we can too.

Again I would rather be the Astros or Braves than the Rays. I don't want to be the Buffalo Bills of baseball who are almost always good enough. That get's old after a while.

Why can't I have an expectation that we extend a future multiple allstar player and cornerstone franchise player? He's the type of guys who could be our Buster Posey and have his number up hanging up in LF some day.

I have no interested in lower my expectations to the point where the Orioles can trip over them backwards. If that's satisfying to other people/fans then so be it. But since the charge me full prices for tickets and concessions I feel like they should act like the professional organization that they are supposed to be. Why should fans in ATL, HOU, LA, NY, BOS, SEA etc. get to enjoy nice things while I have to settle for barely passable effort and "well at least we were a winning team"? I pay full prices just like them and invest the same amount of time in to my team that they do into their's. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

Anyways, you’re right. He never said “we won’t extend Rutschman” but he did lay the groundwork for an excuse as to why it didn’t happen. Sure, the Rays and Guardians have extended players but they’re generally team friendly contracts. It’s too much to expect Rutschman to pull a Ramirez or Longoria and take less money because he likes the city or team or whatever. 

I will agree that Angelos’ words leave wiggle room if no extensions happen.  And, I agree we have no particular reason to trust anything he says.

As to “pull[ing] a Ramirez or Longoria,” I think it depends which player and which contract.   Ramirez signed his first long term deal before he had established himself as a great player.  He was not a top 100 prospect.  He’d had one .825 OPS season following a couple years in the .600s.  So while his first deal worked out great for Cleveland, there was risk on both sides when he signed.   His second deal was extremely team favorable and I’d never expect Adley to sign anything comparable.  

As to Longoria, his first deal turned out extremely team friendly but he was unproven (though highly regarded) at the time,  His second deal was pretty fair and reflected only a modest discount over what he might have  gotten by waiting for free agency. 

Pretty much every extension reflects some discount, not because the player is doing the team a big favor, but because the team is assuming the risk that the player gets seriously hurt or has a significant downturn in performance before the time they become eligible for free agency.  Some players really want to eliminate that risk, others are happy to take the risk and just go year by year until free agency.  Believe me, there are plenty of players who would have done better by locking in early, or who did.  Take Jose Berrios, who extended for 7/$131 mm a year before free agency.  At that point, he was a career 108 ERA+ pitcher coming off a 123 ERA+ season.  If he’d waited another year and posted career average or better numbers, he would have done better than 7/$131 mm.  But instead, he locked in and guaranteed himself a nice payday.  Then he put up a 72 ERA+ season that would have cratered his market value if he’d gone to free agency.  That’s the risk the Jays took to sign him at what looked like a discount.  

So, bottom line, what Adley would sign for depends partly on his appetite for risk, and partly on how much he likes the situation he’s in. Hopefully, he likes his situation a lot.  There’s a lot to like about the future of this team.  


 

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Again I would rather be the Astros or Braves than the Rays. I don't want to be the Buffalo Bills of baseball who are almost always good enough. That get's old after a while.

Why can't I have an expectation that we extend a future multiple allstar player and cornerstone franchise player? He's the type of guys who could be our Buster Posey and have his number up hanging up in LF some day.

I have no interested in lower my expectations to the point where the Orioles can trip over them backwards. If that's satisfying to other people/fans then so be it. But since the charge me full prices for tickets and concessions I feel like they should act like the professional organization that they are supposed to be. Why should fans in ATL, HOU, LA, NY, BOS, SEA etc. get to enjoy nice things while I have to settle for barely passable effort and "well at least we were a winning team"? I pay full prices just like them and invest the same amount of time in to my team that they do into their's. 

You can have whatever expectations you want.   Good luck with that.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I have no interested in lower my expectations to the point where the Orioles can trip over them backwards. If that's satisfying to other people/fans then so be it. But since the charge me full prices for tickets and concessions I feel like they should act like the professional organization that they are supposed to be. Why should fans in ATL, HOU, LA, NY, BOS, SEA etc. get to enjoy nice things while I have to settle for barely passable effort and "well at least we were a winning team"? I pay full prices just like them and invest the same amount of time in to my team that they do into their's. 

Sorry, but surely you realize that the "full prices" you pay in BAL, pale in comparison to those in LA, NY, BOS and probably SEA and ATL as well. The fallacy is expecting JA to manage the Orioles like a "professional organization" you expect them to be and spend the money he prefers keeping to himself, on your team to your expectations. That will not happen.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Sorry, but surely you realize that the "full prices" you pay in BAL, pale in comparison to those in LA, NY, BOS and probably SEA and ATL as well. The fallacy is expecting JA to manage the Orioles like a "professional organization" you expect them to be and spend the money he prefers keeping to himself, on your team to your expectations. That will not happen.

Just did a quick search but 10th in ticket prices.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193673/average-ticket-price-in-the-mlb-by-team/

Fourth highest beer price.

https://www.webstaurantstore.com/blog/628/beer-hot-dog-and-ticket-prices-at-major-league-baseball-parks.html

 

 

[AnythingO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just did a quick search but 10th in ticket prices.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193673/average-ticket-price-in-the-mlb-by-team/

 

OK but LA, NY, and BOS are the top 3 and I waffled on ATL (close) and missed on SEA (which I totally don't understand). The point stands, you pay more in LA, NY, BOS and JA will continue to pocket the profits regardless of fan expectations.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, AnythingO's said:

OK but LA, NY, and BOS are the top 3 and I waffled on ATL (close) and missed on SEA (which I totally don't understand). The point stands, you pay more in LA, NY, BOS and JA will continue to pocket the profits regardless of fan expectations.

I'll take 10th in payroll. 

[AnythingO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll take 10th in payroll. 

As would we all, not gonna happen as that would be deficit spending and PA's law firm ain't helping float the boat no more. That's what is intriguing about SEA ticket prices being that low. They aren't known as bottom spenders so what is their other revenue stream??

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

That’s an optimistic view of the Angelos regime and lack of financially supportive actions that I do not share. Let’s all hope that Angelos transforms from awful into at least average.

It's just my opinion but after the Chris Davis disaster it's hard to hope for any big, long terms deals with anyone while this family owns the team.  I'll only believe it when I see it.  I'm guessing John Angelos' main objective is to sell the team -- but only after Peter passes away. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

As would we all, not gonna happen as that would be deficit spending and PA's law firm ain't helping float the boat no more. That's what is intriguing about SEA ticket prices being that low. They aren't known as bottom spenders so what is their other revenue stream??

I don't think attendance is a big revenue stream.

This might shed some light on the situation.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/4/19/4240146/seattle-mariners-root-sports-purchase-directv-maury-brown

Quote

And now, the with the majority purchase of ROOT Sports NW the Mariners will see approx.. $2 billion over 20 years.