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It was driving me nuts

Baltimorecuse

By Baltimorecuse
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

It isn't have a good record in one run games. It's having a significantly higher winning percentage in one run games compared to other games. If a .600 team wins .605 in one run games that's

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Impossible! I’ve read on here that Hyde is a terrible manager!

dystopia
dystopia

Yeah, having a good record in 1-run games is often correlated with "luck". I remember this from 2012, we heard it every other day. I'm not sure how true it is, but there doesn't seem to be much correl

Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I meant the post that you quoted.

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

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yark14 Major Leaguer Rising Star

yark14

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

I don't mind CoC being snarky to me.  We've all got holes to fill.

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure they are pretty pleased to have you jump to their defense but I don't think I was making them out to be an idiot.

In point of fact I had to go back and check a third time to even figure out what you were talking about.

I was way snarkier to other people in this thread.

I'm good. I'm couch ridden with COVID, so I don't have a whole lot to do but watch baseball and BS on here.

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope you have a speedy and full recovery.

Nice to see only one person was offended by me in this thread.  😉

Man, this is the first time I've had it, and I'm grateful for that.

 

On another note, if anyone is ever looking for something to waste a bunch of time on, look for videos on boats coming through the Haulover Inlet. That defines having way more money than brains.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, dystopia said:

Yeah, having a good record in 1-run games is often correlated with "luck". I remember this from 2012, we heard it every other day. I'm not sure how true it is, but there doesn't seem to be much correlation between the 1-run record and a team's overall record. Texas is 8-14. Miami is 24-10. Rays are 15-19. Braves are 16-12. Phillies are 22-14, and the Padres are 6-18. 

Didn’t the 2012 bullpen have the highest WPA of all time?

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

Posted
Posted (edited)

So semi related, but my shake-fist-at-clouds moment with stats involves Fangraphs and other projection systems barely budging from their preseason projections.  Fangraphs ZIPS projection still has us below .500 the rest of the way and I think that is absurd.  It's plainly obvious to me that this team is far more talented than those projections gave them credit for, in the preseason, and barring a bunch of injuries I'd be absolutely floored if we only play .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

I kind of get that the O's would be bucking trends by continuing to beat these projections but I think they're just moving way too slowly.

Edited by Hallas
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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Hallas said:

So semi related, but my shake-fist-at-clouds moment with stats involves Fangraphs and other projection systems barely budging from their preseason projections.  Fangraphs ZIPS projection still has us below .500 the rest of the way and I think that is absurd.  It's plainly obvious to me that this team is far more talented than those projections gave them credit for, in the preseason, and barring a bunch of injuries I'd be absolutely floored if we only play .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

I kind of get that the O's would be bucking trends by continuing to beat these projections but I think they're just moving way too slowly.

I think it's pretty clear these projections and predictions by ZiPS/Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA/whatever aren't worth a sack of bat droppings. According to Baseball Prospectus' preseason projections, the Orioles are only going to win 4 more games. They're stupid and useless. 

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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think these projections factor in enough that we’re a young ball club that is getting better. Gunnar in April is not the Gunnar he is now. Everyone is growing and getting better. For the most part. Even Hyde. 

Then they’re worthless. 

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