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Win the Division this week.

TopGunnar

By TopGunnar
in Orioles Talk

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CallMeBrooksie
CallMeBrooksie

@DirtyBird is definitely one of them

DirtyBird
DirtyBird

Not as tough as 13-5 and losing 1.5 games

Frobby
Frobby

We are only 3-3 against Boston.  Enough said.  (Cue the caveats about Ryan McKenna.)

Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I imagine run differential has a lot to do with it but that’s just a guess.

I just don’t think they adjust their model in-season.   They decide before the year starts how good the players are and how good the team is, and if reality is different than that 80% of the way through the season, they assume their pre-season assessment was correct and that the in-season results are an anomaly that should be disregarded.   That might make some sense 25-50% of the way through a season, but at some point it becomes absurd.  

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just don’t think they adjust their model in-season.   They decide before the year starts how good the players are and how good the team is, and if reality is different than that 80% of the way through the season, they assume their pre-season assessment was correct and that the in-season results are an anomaly that should be disregarded.   That might make some sense 25-50% of the way through a season, but at some point it becomes absurd.  

I have similar thoughts. They seem like they never want to be wrong. Even if they look at run differential and Pythagorean w/l, that still says the Orioles should "only" be a .575 winning percentage team. Where does the projection that they should play .500 the rest of the way come into the picture? They've played 139 games of .633 baseball and now all of a sudden they're only going to be .500 the last 23 games because fangraphs made a preseason prediction that they would be bad?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

I have similar thoughts. They seem like they never want to be wrong. Even if they look at run differential and Pythagorean w/l, that still says the Orioles should "only" be a .575 winning percentage team. Where does the projection that they should play .500 the rest of the way come into the picture? They've played 139 games of .633 baseball and now all of a sudden they're only going to be .500 the last 23 games because fangraphs made a preseason prediction that they would be bad?

Needless to say, I don’t think it’s specific to the Orioles or biased against them.  It’s just really inflexible and not realistic.   

FWIW, Vegas has the O’s with the 4th best odds to win the WS, at +900.   I’m not sure I fully understand how that converts to percentage odds, but I think it’s basically 10% or 10 to 1.   
 

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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Needless to say, I don’t think it’s specific to the Orioles or biased against them.  It’s just really inflexible and not realistic.   

FWIW, Vegas has the O’s with the 4th best odds to win the WS, at +900.   I’m not sure I fully understand how that converts to percentage odds, but I think it’s basically 10% or 10 to 1.   
 

So what other teams does Fangraphs give this type of treatment to?

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