What are your expectations for John Means in 2024?

[Frobby]

I’m curious what people expect from John Means, both in terms of innings and ERA.   I’ve given nine scenarios in the poll that combine different innings and ERA ranges.  Take your shot, and if you want to make a more specific projection, feel free to post it here.

For his career, Means has a 3.74 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 4.90 xFiP, 3.97 xERA.  In his brief 2023 comeback, in 23.2 innings he had a 2.66 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 5.91 xFIP, 4.73 xERA.   

ZiPS’ median projection has Means throwing 85 innings to a 4.24 ERA.  His 80th percentile projected ERA is 3.78, 20th percentile is 4.83.  Overall, that feels pretty pessimistic on both the IP and ERA front.  

Steamer projects Means at 135 innings, 4.42 ERA.   I’m actually not sure if the IP projection comes from Steamer, or from the Fangraphs staff.

Marcel projects Means at 72 innings, 4.00 ERA.

What’s your guess?

Edit:

By the way, my poll got screwed up somehow, as I had written out 9 options but only 7 are showing.  Missing are:

100-130 innings, ERA under 3.70 

Over 130 innings, ERA over 4.30

i know for sure I typed all 9 of them. Oh well.  If you would have chosen one of those, just say so here.  

 

Edited January 18 by Frobby

[dystopia]

120ish innings at 4.00 ERA sounds about right, but hopefully he stays healthy and he can get up to 150 innings. Either one seems plausible to me. 

[Pickles]

150ish innings high 3 ERA.

Basically, he's the pitcher he was before the surgery.  That's probably optimistic, but the record of recovery from TJ surgery nowadays is pretty high, and we saw him last year looking pretty solid.

I do worry about the aggravation that caused him to miss the playoffs; I would feel stronger about my prediction with some clarity on that situation.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see how anyone can have any expectation that is overly positive. That’s just hopes and wishes and not reality.

110ish innings of 4.5 ERA would be my hope…anything more/better than that is gravy. 
 

He isn’t a power arm, so hopefully this surgery doesn’t affect him too much but he got better when he added a little velo. Will that still be there?  Will the command and control still be there?  Will he stay healthy and pitch enough? He had durability  concerns before the TJ surgery happened.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

150ish innings high 3 ERA.

Basically, he's the pitcher he was before the surgery.  That's probably optimistic, but the record of recovery from TJ surgery nowadays is pretty high, and we saw him last year looking pretty solid.

I do worry about the aggravation that caused him to miss the playoffs; I would feel stronger about my prediction with some clarity on that situation.

I 2nd this.   John has never pitched with a defense like the O's have now.  Or a bullpen.   Or an offense.   He is going to win a lot of games.  I expect him to miss 6 weeks with a tired shoulder but he will come back to finish the season and the playoffs.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I 2nd this.   John has never pitched with a defense like the O's have now.  Or a bullpen.   Or an offense.   He is going to win a lot of games.  I expect him to miss 6 weeks with a tired shoulder but he will come back to finish the season and the playoffs.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here's Johnny.  I loved the Amazing Kreskin.

[interloper]

I'm looking for 125 innings, so I reluctantly had to vote for 100-130. I think there's a good chance he gets into the 130-150 range, but not a great chance. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I 2nd this.   John has never pitched with a defense like the O's have now.  Or a bullpen.   Or an offense.   He is going to win a lot of games.  I expect him to miss 6 weeks with a tired shoulder but he will come back to finish the season and the playoffs.

I would have bet my bottom dollar that you’d choose the most optimistic category here, and I hope you’re right.   One factor you didn’t mention is that Means has barely pitched at OPACY since the LF wall was moved back.  As a fly ball LHP, he probably benefits the most of anyone currently on our staff from the new configuration.   

[btdart20]

I'm usually fairly optimistic.  But I'm still concerned about Means.  A lot of Savant metrics looks like 2021 data though.  Even with some SSS improvements.  But the Babip, low K%, and high LOB% are concerning.   I tend to think 4.30+ ERA.  If there was an over 130 IP and over 4.30 ERA option, I would have chosen that.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here's Johnny.  I loved the Amazing Kreskin.

Funny.  I was thinking of the Amazing Kreskin and mistakenly typed in Carnac (Johnny Carson).    

[TommyPickles]

152 IP, 3.91 ERA, beloved by our fans and young pitchers alike. Has at least one start where he takes a no-hitter into the 7th inning.

[Frobby]

By the way, my poll got screwed up somehow, as I had written out 9 options but only 7 are showing.  Missing are:

100-130 innings, ERA under 3.70 

Over 130 innings, ERA over 4.30

i know for sure I typed all 9 of them. Oh well.  If you would have chosen one of those, just say so here.  I’ll edit the OP too.

[Moose Milligan]

There's no option for Cy Young, Frob.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's no option for Cy Young, Frob.

I wanted to keep wildcard tethered to reality.