Jackson Holliday 2024

[glenn__davis]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The comp is better than Grayson because at least Cowser was a hitter who was struggling and looked to have a hole in his swing. 
 

But yea, I don’t think sending him down made him a better player which is the victory people are taking laps on.0

Cowser, to me, was clearly mentally struggling.  You could see it on his face, in his body language, in his movements on the field.  I fully supported sending him back down at the time.

I personally don't see the same thing with Holliday.  Maybe a little hesitation in the field, but that also could be learning a new position.  But he seems composed, you see him in the dugout and he doesn't seem down on himself.  He celebrates with his teammates when good things happen.  He's generally not up there fishing for bad pitches.  I don't get the impression that he's in over his head at all from a mental standpoint.

I'd say it's a combination of around 40% not quite ready, 40% just a badly-timed slump, and 20% luck.  He had some really tough calls go against him early on that made his ABs a lot more difficult.

End of the day I don't really care what they do.  I wasn't clamoring for him to come up and I'm not going to be upset if he goes back down.  But I see no evidence that he needs some sort of reset.  

Edited April 23 by glenn__davis

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

We know that there will have to be tough roster decisions with this team in the near future. Is the plan to put those off until the offseason no matter what? If that's the plan, you might see a rationale for keeping the status quo. At the same time, I'd be fine with making one or two of those decisions by the deadline.

But let's be honest here, you're talking about the risk with one player (Norby) by making the change I'm saying to make. It's not going to derail the future of this team or even his trade value. 

At the same time, I think they're doing Holliday a disservice. He only played 36 games in AA, and half that in AAA, last year. They didn't even give those leagues the chance to adjust to him. I really, honestly, think they've rushed the kid. I think he's showing that he's not ready offensively, or even defensively at 2B. Heck, I think he's overhyped in general even though I definitely see him eventually as an above average 2B and top of the league leadoff hitter. But he's not the uber athlete, big powerful MOO bat that someone like a Gunnar is. He's more of Jeter profile. That's wonderful, but it's not an ARod profile either and Jeter did what he did with 10/10 intangibles.

I think there's more to gain by getting the extra year of service time and making sure he's ready, and I think that way outweighs the risks of losing some value on a guy like Norby.

If Jackson Holliday turns out to be anywhere near the stratosphere offensively of a Derek Jeter, that will be a MASSIVE win for everyone!

I disagree that he was rushed, he's was and is that good. He just hasn't shown it yet at this level. And no I don't think he has the athletic upside of Gunnar Henderson. NO ONE in the org does! So IMO that shouldn't be the standard of judgment.

Given how little there is to gain with a Norby promotion, IMO it is better to use him as a trade chip.

Lastly, no. Riding with the status quo through the through the season is not the correct move for a team seeking to win a World Series. It wasn't the right move last year and that played out with the results as our lack of quality top end pitching last season got exposed against the Rangers. IMO there is no need (especially with an overabundance of org talent) to take such a risk.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

Cowser, to me, was clearly mentally struggling.  You could see it on his face, in his body language, in his movements on the field.  I fully supported sending him back down at the time.

I personally don't see the same thing with Holliday.  Maybe a little hesitation in the field, but that also could be learning a new position.  But he seems composed, you see him in the dugout and he doesn't seem down on himself.  He celebrates with his teammates when good things happen.  He's generally not up there fishing for bad pitches.  I don't get the impression that he's in over his head at all.

I'd say it's a combination of around 40% not quite ready, 40% just a badly-timed slump, and 20% luck.  He had some really tough calls go against him early on that made his ABs a lot more difficult.

End of the day I don't really care what they do.  I wasn't clamoring for him to come up and I'm not going to be upset if he goes back down.  But I see no evidence that he needs some sort of reset.  

I'm sure Holliday is mentally struggling in his own way, but he certainly hides it better than Cowser did haha. What I saw from Cowser on his face/body language last year is partly why I was so ready to send him out in a trade this offseason. Obviously, I was wrong as hell. And fortunately, I don't run the baseball team. : ) 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Giving Joey Ortiz a cup of coffee didn't do anything to his trade value. Cowser's probably did go down a bit due to the length and severity of his early struggles. Heck, I would have been OK with trading Cowser for Cease (I voted no, but more because of my view of Ortiz/Westburg). If Norby can pull an Evan Carter heater for a couple of weeks, who knows, it might work out the other way.  

I'm not saying that id not possible, but it is certainly not probable. Given the talent gap between Carter and Norby.

Again, IMO the greater odds/gain is that Norby is a useful piece in a trade than him becoming the next Evan Carter.

[LookinUp]

19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I disagree that he was rushed, he's was and is that good.

I think he can be rushed and also be "that good." Both things can be true.

I'm not trying to crush the kid. I'm just trying to be realistic. He's swimming in deep water right now. I don't think we're really helping him by throwing him to the sharks. I do concede that they could stick with him for another month, he could break out of this and all could be great. I just think doing so pretty much guarantees a guy who isn't great, and might be significantly below average, offensively or defensively on the field during that time. I mean, he's been up 2 weeks and has a -0.5 rWAR.

[Sports Guy]

No such thing as rushed unless it’s some extreme case that you basically never see

[deward]

There's a piece on The Athletic today where they interviewed Holliday, Hyde, and Fuller about his struggles (subscription required)

https://theathletic.com/5437515/2024/04/23/jackson-holliday-orioles-mlb-career-bad-start

A few snippets:

 

[ChuckS]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No such thing as rushed unless it’s some extreme case that you basically never see

Of course there is such thing as rushed. 

If there wasn't, then there would be no such thing as development. These guys would be coming into the system as finished products, and thus wouldn't benefit by any time spent playing in the minor leagues. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, deward said:

There's a piece on The Athletic today where they interviewed Holliday, Hyde, and Fuller about his struggles (subscription required)

https://theathletic.com/5437515/2024/04/23/jackson-holliday-orioles-mlb-career-bad-start

A few snippets:

 

Very mature perspective, especially for a 20 year-old. Hopefully he starts getting some results to get his confidence going.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, ChuckS said:

Of course there is such thing as rushed. 

If there wasn't, then there would be no such thing as development. These guys would be coming into the system as finished products, and thus wouldn't benefit by any time spent playing in the minor leagues. 

Huh?

I don’t think you are understanding what I’m saying.

Sure, if you bring up a HS player to the majors before they play in the minors, that’s rushed..but that doesn’t really happen. 
 

So, in realistic world, talking about things that actually happen, rushed isn’t really a thing.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If it weren’t for the service time component I think Holliday would have a very long leash before being sent down. He’s still contributing positively on defense and AAA pitchers just were not challenging him anymore. The priority above all else should be what is best for his long term development, and he needs to struggle against MLB pitching for longer than this to get to a point where you feel it’s doing more harm than good.

I do think there can be some merit to the idea that MLB time exposes some weakness, which then can be worked on in a lower-stress environment in AAA, but I don’t think that’s strictly necessary since he’d be working on the same things against MLB pitching.

However, the Orioles are now in a tricky situation where if it becomes apparent that Holliday is not going to win ROY, they have a strong incentive to send him down for at least a short stint to get the extra year. How they navigate that without that being totally transparent is tough. They could definitely do it now and nobody would claim service time manipulation given his struggles, but I don’t think they want to yet for purely development purposes. If he’s still struggling with around 100 PAs that’s when I think they make the move. 

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?

I don’t think you are understanding what I’m saying.

Sure, if you bring up a HS player to the majors before they play in the minors, that’s rushed..but that doesn’t really happen. 
 

So, in realistic world, talking about things that actually happen, rushed isn’t really a thing.

Who is talking about high school players going straight to the big leagues?  I think we all know that doesn't happen. 

You don't think players are ever called up to the majors, struggle, sent down, then come back up to different results because they needed additional development time?

Edited April 23 by ChuckS

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Who is talking about high school players going straight to the big leagues?  I think we all know that doesn't happen. 

You don't think players are ever called up to the majors, struggle, sent down, then come back up to different results because they needed additional development time?

1) I’m saying that would be an example of being rushed and to me, it’s basically the only example.

2) I don’t think this has anything to do with being rushed.  Rushed is putting a guy in a position where they can’t succeed because they aren’t ready. I don’t believe that happens.

Holliday was clearly not rushed. Cowser was clearly not rushed last year. 
 

I think sometimes guys just come up and don’t play well…and then they get sent down and barring some dramatic difference in how they approach things (ie switch mechanics, etc..), I think they just come up and just simply play better.

There is a fine line between being bad and being good. Lots of factors are involved in that. 
 

Rushed isn’t one of them. Rushed is a term people use because it sounds good but it’s a made up thing. Guys don’t get rushed especially with the service time rules being what they are.

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) I’m saying that would be an example of being rushed and to me, it’s basically the only example.

2) I don’t think this has anything to do with being rushed.  Rushed is putting a guy in a position where they can’t succeed because they aren’t ready. I don’t believe that happens.

Holliday was clearly not rushed. Cowser was clearly not rushed last year. 
 

I think sometimes guys just come up and don’t play well…and then they get sent down and barring some dramatic difference in how they approach things (ie switch mechanics, etc..), I think they just come up and just simply play better.

There is a fine line between being bad and being good. Lots of factors are involved in that. 
 

Rushed isn’t one of them. Rushed is a term people use because it sounds good but it’s a made up thing. Guys don’t get rushed especially with the service time rules being what they are.

I think there are numerous examples of players coming up and struggling, then getting sent back to Triple A to work on things and coming up different players. Whether you want call that something other than rushed, "not ready" or "in need of more development", I won't argue semantics 

Now maybe they need that to experience that failure in the majors sometimes to know what they need to go back down and work on.   That could be a valid point to make.  But saying that there is no such thing as rushed takes the possibility for additional development that could have occurred in the minor leagues, out of the equation.  

[Sports Guy]