Colton Cowser 2024

[RZNJ]

I know it’s already been said but Cowser continues to make plays that most LF, including Austin Hays, can’t.    He continues to make plays that either save runs or potentially save runs.  They always say you can’t give a team extra outs.  Cowser is taking hits away.  Works for me.

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I know it’s already been said but Cowser continues to make plays that most LF, including Austin Hays, can’t.    He continues to make plays that either save runs or potentially save runs.  They always say you can’t give a team extra outs.  Cowser is taking hits away.  Works for me.

The question that I am still trying to answer is whether Cowser is a good defensive CFer.  How does he compare to Mulins defensively in CF?

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I know it’s already been said but Cowser continues to make plays that most LF, including Austin Hays, can’t.    He continues to make plays that either save runs or potentially save runs.  They always say you can’t give a team extra outs.  Cowser is taking hits away.  Works for me.

Statcast ranked that catch last night on Arozarena as a 5% probability catch.   His range is terrific.  He needs to clean up his throws, but he's got the arm strength.   

Hays deserved his Gold Glove nomination last year, but I'd certainly agree Cowser covers more ground.  You'd have to think he may get a Gold Glove nomination (or even the award) if he continues to be a starter all season.  The fact that he jumps around may hurt him, since they now give Gold Gloves for the specific outfield spots, not just three OF spots regardless of which position they play.

I like it late in games when they have Cowser, Mullins and Hays all out there.   

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The question that I am still trying to answer is whether Cowser is a good defensive CFer.  How does he compare to Mulins defensively in CF?

Too soon to tell.  Statically, Mullins was above average in 2022 and 2023.  In 2022 his DRS was 5 and OAA 9.  In 2023 it was 7 and 6.  This year in 452 innings it’s 0 and 2.  So his OAA is trending close to last year.  Cowser in 102 innings has 1 DRS and 1 OAA.   We probably need more data on Cowser but that SSS supports the idea that there is little to no drop off.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The question that I am still trying to answer is whether Cowser is a good defensive CFer.  How does he compare to Mulins defensively in CF?

Cowser's CF numbers are a shade better than Mullins'.   He's a little faster and taller.  Some of those spectacular catches Mullins makes by leaping, lunging or diving, Cowser can make without needing to be quite that athletic.  

Mullins (452 innings in CF): +2 OAA, -2 Rtot, 0 Rdrs, +0.1 UZR

Cowser (102 innings in CF): +1 OAA, +3 Rtot, +1 Rdrs, +0.5 UZR

Numbers don't always tell the story,  but my eye test agrees that we aren't really losing anything when Cowser plays CF.

[Malike]

Cowser has been fantastic in the field. Statcast rates his reaction negatively and his routes at 0 but his burst allows him to get to a lot of balls. 

[Say O!]

50 minutes ago, Malike said:

Cowser has been fantastic in the field. Statcast rates his reaction negatively and his routes at 0 but his burst allows him to get to a lot of balls. 

That’s definitely what plays out when watching the games. Shaky jumps but covers tremendous amount of ground in LF, really in all directions.  I think his relatively poor jumps get exposed a bit more in CF.

[AdamK]

Love how aggressive Cowser is in the outfield and around the bases. 

Happy to see him more than earning his keep. 

[wildcard]

Next year If Cowser can be regular in center and Kjerstad replaces Santander in right that leaves Stower or Norby in left.    The O's will need a backup centerfield.   Maybe Daniel Johnson?  or Billy Cook?

Edited June 11 by wildcard

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Say O! said:

That’s definitely what plays out when watching the games. Shaky jumps but covers tremendous amount of ground in LF, really in all directions.  I think his relatively poor jumps get exposed a bit more in CF.

These days you have to be careful how you use the term “jump.”  Statcast defines “jump” as the distance the fielder travels in the first 3 seconds after the ball is hit, and divides that into “reaction” (the first 1.5 seconds) and “burst” (the second 1.5 seconds).  So, per Statcast, Cowser has an average or slightly below average “reaction” but a well above average “burst,” which when combined give him a somewhat above average “jump.”   But I think you are using the term “jump” to mean what Statcast calls “reaction.”

[banks703]

One of the biggest challenges for outfielders is acclimating to the bigger stadiums, the upper deck specifically. Not only do fly balls look different with that backdrop but they play different in every stadium due to weather conditions and orientation to the sun, moon, even the stars., etc. It seems like a stretch but it really isn’t. Tracking a ball 250 feet in the night sky in swirling wind conditions, battling the upper deck, with men on base, etc etc is no small task and he did not look awesome out there last year. Plus he really struggled offensively which seemed to carry over into the field. He was a mess in his time with the big club in 23. 

Some folks were ready to anoint him a failure. Some stuck by (and stand by) his abilities and talent). To me, he is skilled enough to play a good defensive CF. Offensive things being equal (or comparable) between he and Ced, Ced probably is still the guy you prefer to roam out there with CC being best suited for a corner spot but CC is also very good and continues to improve in center. I really see a lot of Charlie Blackmon in his game though I think CC is a better defender overall.

It’s tragic watching Ced struggle as much as he has but it’s been fantastic to see Cowser make the strides he has this year. He’s a bonafide major league outfielder with plus abilities across all five tools. Should Ced not find his way back, the O’s are in a great position to run CC out there in center for the next few years or until someone else comes along to supplant him. Personally, I would continue to pencil him into center to see how much more he has, which I feel is still a good bit. He’s been very good overall but how good in center (to some) seems to be a surprise. 

[BRobinsonfan]

On 6/8/2024 at 8:01 AM, elextrano8 said:

I feel like Chevy Chase should be SG

SG is El Guapo!  And he has a plethora of trade ideas!   

[Yossarian]

Looking at the lineups today against Atlanta - Cowser's numbers are very similar to Matt Olson.  Cowser is a lot cheaper,  though.

[G54377]

13 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Looking at the lineups today against Atlanta - Cowser's numbers are very similar to Matt Olson.  Cowser is a lot cheaper,  though.

It's really bizarre how Olson and Riley (and really every ATL hitter but Ozuna) fell off a cliff this year.

[Say O!]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

These days you have to be careful how you use the term “jump.”  Statcast defines “jump” as the distance the fielder travels in the first 3 seconds after the ball is hit, and divides that into “reaction” (the first 1.5 seconds) and “burst” (the second 1.5 seconds).  So, per Statcast, Cowser has an average or slightly below average “reaction” but a well above average “burst,” which when combined give him a somewhat above average “jump.”   But I think you are using the term “jump” to mean what Statcast calls “reaction.”

Thx for unpacking this detail. You are indeed correct, I am thinking reaction.