Bubble Teams

[YardBirds13]

They beat LSU, Tennessee, and Miss St twice...Not embarrassing by any stretch.

I think Auburn should be considered, not saying they belong in over anyone except Creighton from your list. I'm still iffy on Zona. I do think St Mary's and Maryland are in.

I can see the debate between them and Creighton, I guess. When it comes down to a mid-major that did well in conference and has a nice win or two OOC, against a Big Conference team team that wimped out on playing anyone OOC (or couldn't beat anyone) and played in a conference that is in a down year, I usually go with the mid-major, but I guess I can see the debate. And, Auburn lost to Northern Iowa, the team Creighton tied with in the Missouri Valley Conference.

I'm just not sure how Auburn really even stacks up with Arizona. Arizona lost to UAB by 1 when they had those really stupid fouls. They lost to Texas A&M by one. They lost on the road at UNLV. They don't have anything close to a bad loss like Mercer. They didn't lose at home to a team like Vanderbilt. And they actually won games OOC against real teams.

[PaulBako]

Hey, I'm not big on Creighton either, but at least they beat Dayton. Auburn beat nobody.

Seriously, Alabama? That's a good win? I'm sorry, but Auburn didn't beat anybody.

Arizona went 9-9 in the Pac-10, and has wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA and WAshington. I understand they didn't play well on the road, but you seriously think Auburn should be in over Arizona? Really?

Auburn won 10 games in a crappy SEC. I just can't fathom them getting at-large bid.

Hmmm I have to agree with you here. The SEC is horrible this year and Auburn only has one big win, vs.LSU. Arizona has some nice wins, even though they only have a .500 record in the Pac Ten, which is no ACC or Big East. But I think those big wins will help them.

[beaner]

Hmmm I have to agree with you here. The SEC is horrible this year and Auburn only has one big win, vs.LSU. Arizona has some nice wins, even though they only have a .500 record in the Pac Ten, which is no ACC or Big East. But I think those big wins will help them.

How are Tennessee and two over Mississippi State not good wins? I don't get the logic.

[YardBirds13]

How are Tennessee and two over Mississippi State not good wins? I don't get the logic.

Tennessee is a good win for sure.

Miss State isn't that good of a team, and hasn't been a great team all year.

Sure, it's nice to have two wins over them on your resume, but if they are your 4th/5th best wins all season, you should be getting ready to host an NIT game.

[beaner]

Tennessee is a good win for sure.

Miss State isn't that good of a team, and hasn't been a great team all year.

Sure, it's nice to have two wins over them on your resume, but if they are your 4th/5th best wins all season, you should be getting ready to host an NIT game.

Mississippi State has 22 wins and is one win away from the tourney a year after they should've been crappy ass Memphis in the second round last year.

I'm not saying Auburn is a lock, I just don't think we can dismiss them after their strong finish. That's all.

[YardBirds13]

Mississippi State has 22 wins and is one win away from the tourney a year after they should've been crappy ass Memphis in the second round last year.

I'm not saying Auburn is a lock, I just don't think we can dismiss them after their strong finish. That's all.

I hear you.

I just get frustrated when power conference schools don't play anyone OOC, then win a couple games in a bad conference and think they should be in the tournament.

I don't think mid-majors should get preferential treatment, but as a fan of a mid-major team, I think the big boys should play somebody OOC if they think they deserve an at-large bid (unless they are getting 4 or 5 HUGE wins in-league).

If it was up to me, Creighton or St. Mary's get in over Auburn, and as I mentioned, I'm not big on Creighton this year.

To me, Auburn is a poor man's Penn State. Played nobody OOC, got some nice wins in conference, Penn State just got better wins. I think they should both be out.

[YardBirds13]

And while I agree Mississippi State has some talent (Varnardo), look at who they played outside the SEC this year:

Losses to Texas Tech, Washington State, San Diego, Charlotte and Cincinnati. Those aren't good teams.

In league they lost to LSU twice, and lost to Tenn the only time they played them. Those are really the only good teams in the SEC.

Here are Mississippi State's wins this season:

Canisius, Louisiana-Monroe, Farleigh Dickinson, St. Bonaventure, Alabama State, South Alabama, Nicholls State, Houston, Western Kentucky.

Those are the games they won OOC. I mean, really? I know you aren't claiming they should be in, but who schedules that OOC schedule?? That's ridiculous. I HATE power conference teams that schedule like that.

[beaner]

I see your point, and won't be shocked either way. I just think Auburn's last 6 weeks will be noticed. We'll find out tomorrow.

[waroriole]

I hear you.

I just get frustrated when power conference schools don't play anyone OOC, then win a couple games in a bad conference and think they should be in the tournament.

I don't think mid-majors should get preferential treatment, but as a fan of a mid-major team, I think the big boys should play somebody OOC if they think they deserve an at-large bid (unless they are getting 4 or 5 HUGE wins in-league).

If it was up to me, Creighton or St. Mary's get in over Auburn, and as I mentioned, I'm not big on Creighton this year.

To me, Auburn is a poor man's Penn State. Played nobody OOC, got some nice wins in conference, Penn State just got better wins. I think they should both be out.

Your hatred for the SEC is really clouding your logic. Auburn has some quality wins, and the reason they could get in is how they finished. They won 9 of 11, while Arizona lost 5 of 6. That usually counts for something.

Auburn played tough OOC games, they just lost them. Xavier, Dayton and Northern Iowa are all NCAA teams. George Washington and Virginia are usually tough teams, just not this year. So, why fault them for bad luck. You're acting like they purposely scheduled games to avoid playing teams. Every team has some cupcakes on the schedule, and alot of teams lose a bad game early in the season (Mercer). However, there is no need to take that early season loss more seriously than late season conference wins. It's clear which game is more indicative of how the team plays.

One thing Auburn has over Creighton and St. Mary's is how their season ended. Both of those other teams got embarassed in their final game. Auburn played tough against a very talented Tennessee team. Anyway, look for the SEC to surprise in the NCAA's this year.

[YardBirds13]

Your hatred for the SEC is really clouding your logic. Auburn has some quality wins, and the reason they could get in is how they finished. They won 9 of 11, while Arizona lost 5 of 6. That usually counts for something.

Auburn played tough OOC games, they just lost them. Xavier, Dayton and Northern Iowa are all NCAA teams. George Washington and Virginia are usually tough teams, just not this year. So, why fault them for bad luck. You're acting like they purposely scheduled games to avoid playing teams. Every team has some cupcakes on the schedule, and alot of teams lose a bad game early in the season (Mercer). However, there is no need to take that early season loss more seriously than late season conference wins. It's clear which game is more indicative of how the team plays.

One thing Auburn has over Creighton and St. Mary's is how their season ended. Both of those other teams got embarassed in their final game. Auburn played tough against a very talented Tennessee team. Anyway, look for the SEC to surprise in the NCAA's this year.

So your argument consists entirely on the fact that they finished well. I tend to think that if you play in a weak conference, you'll have a better last 12 because you didn't play as tough of a schedule as a whole.

For example, Virginia Tech finished 3-7 in their last 10. But look at who they played! Again, not saying Tech should get in, but I think the last 10 or 12 is sort of a silly thing to look at. That all depends on who you had to play at the end of the season.

And I don't hate the SEC at all. IN football its the best there is every year. And usually it's a very good basketball conference. This year it is, BY FAR, the worst of the Big 6 conferences.

Look, I'm sorry, but if your best OOC win is over Virginia, you better have done some serious work in conference to get an at-large. They beat Tennessee and LSU, but to me that's just not enough. And don't give me the "we didn't know they would be bad this year" argument.

Your 4 toughest OOC games were UVA, Xavier, Dayton, and Northern Iowa, and you only won one of them? I don't care who you thought was gonna be good, that's pathetic.

And this isn't just Auburn. IT seems like a lot of SEC teams do this. Florida almost always plays a weak OOC schedule. That's fine if you want to do that, but you can't lose to Mercer or Vanderbilt at home if you play a weak OOC schedule and expect to get an at-large bid.

[waroriole]

So your argument consists entirely on the fact that they finished well. I tend to think that if you play in a weak conference, you'll have a better last 12 because you didn't play as tough of a schedule as a whole.

For example, Virginia Tech finished 3-7 in their last 10. But look at who they played! Again, not saying Tech should get in, but I think the last 10 or 12 is sort of a silly thing to look at. That all depends on who you had to play at the end of the season.

And I don't hate the SEC at all. IN football its the best there is every year. And usually it's a very good basketball conference. This year it is, BY FAR, the worst of the Big 6 conferences.

Look, I'm sorry, but if your best OOC win is over Virginia, you better have done some serious work in conference to get an at-large. They beat Tennessee and LSU, but to me that's just not enough. And don't give me the "we didn't know they would be bad this year" argument.

Your 4 toughest OOC games were UVA, Xavier, Dayton, and Northern Iowa, and you only won one of them? I don't care who you thought was gonna be good, that's pathetic.

And this isn't just Auburn. IT seems like a lot of SEC teams do this. Florida almost always plays a weak OOC schedule. That's fine if you want to do that, but you can't lose to Mercer or Vanderbilt at home if you play a weak OOC schedule and expect to get an at-large bid.

I don't think you're looking at it objectively. You keep pointing out the bad Auburn losses without looking at the bad losses for Creighton and St. Mary's. Also, you continue to say that you're getting really upset, that Auburn's schedule is pathetic, that you hate this scheduling etc. It's obvious that you have some sort of bias in this whole thing, so arguing with you about it is kind of pointless. It's not to say that you're wrong and that Auburn will get in, but they have just as good of an argument as the teams that you mention. Just different criteria.

[YardBirds13]

I don't think you're looking at it objectively. You keep pointing out the bad Auburn losses without looking at the bad losses for Creighton and St. Mary's. Also, you continue to say that you're getting really upset, that Auburn's schedule is pathetic, that you hate this scheduling etc. It's obvious that you have some sort of bias in this whole thing, so arguing with you about it is kind of pointless. It's not to say that you're wrong and that Auburn will get in, but they have just as good of an argument as the teams that you mention. Just different criteria.

Yeah, we just disagree. And I'd argue that you are the one with bias and not looking at this objectively. You are an Auburn fan and are trying to make a case for them to get in. I have no horse in this race. I'm not a St. Mary's fan or a Creighton fan or a Maryland fan. I'm looking at this as objectively as I can. If it was up to me, the SEC would only get two teams in the tournament assuming Tennessee wins tomorrow. It's not due to any bias or non-objectivity, its just how I see it. I've watched plenty of Auburn, South Carolina, and Florida this year, and I don't think any of them should be in the tournament. St. Mary's before Mills got hurt was a Top 20 team IMO. And Creighton (who I don't really think should be in either, BTW) has a better OOC win than Auburn and they play in the Missouri Valley.

And, you cannot tell me that Auburn had a good OOC schedule. That I won't let you have. Their OOC schedule was not good. The only legitimate teams they played were Xavier, Dayton and Virginia. They didn't know UVA would be bad, but they were, and that's all they did. Add that to the fact that the SEC is without a doubt the worst of the Big 6 this year, I just find it hard to believe they get in, and honestly, I think Creighton and St. Mary's deserve it more than they do. As a fan of a mid-major team, I think big conference teams that play a weak OOC schedule better make up some serious ground in conference, and Auburn didn't do that IMO.

[Hawkigizer]

St Mary's is a tough call because of Patty Mills, but I still don't think they're in. I mean come on, what other team gets to use a win over Providence as one of their big wins that should get them in the tourney? You think Big East teams get any love for beating Providence?...no, thats just another win for them. Mid-majors kinda have an advantage cause when they beat a mediocre major school it counts as a HUGE win, whereas its no big deal if someone beats them in conference play. If that counts as one of their quality wins, then you have to include Auburn's wins over Ole Miss and Miss St as quality since both those teams RPIs right around that of Providence.

I said all along, that Auburn had to win the SEC tourney to get in. And they didn't so I don't see it happening, and putting my bias aside, I don't think they should get in. The only hope is if the committee wants more than 2 SEC teams to get in. In that case, Auburn is next in line (assuming Miss St loses in the championship game). There's also the fact that while other bubble teams were choking down the stretch, Auburn was playing the best ball of the season. Yeah the SEC was way down, but it's not like Auburn squeaked by its opponents in winning 9 out of the last 11. The 2 losses were to LSU and Tennessee. Of the 9 wins, only 3 were by less than 12 points (by 3 over UF,by 4 at Alabama on their senior night, and by 1 against UT). Auburn dominated the rest of those games and certainly looked good enough to be a tourney team. But the season as whole wasn't as pretty, and it'll keep them out...as I think it should. And this is coming from an Auburn fan (and graduate), so I don't want to hear all this bias talk.

[YardBirds13]

St Mary's is a tough call because of Patty Mills, but I still don't think they're in. I mean come on, what other team gets to use a win over Providence as one of their big wins that should get them in the tourney? You think Big East teams get any love for beating Providence?...no, thats just another win for them. Mid-majors kinda have an advantage cause when they beat a mediocre major school it counts as a HUGE win, whereas its no big deal if someone beats them in conference play. If that counts as one of their quality wins, then you have to include Auburn's wins over Ole Miss and Miss St as quality since both those teams RPIs right around that of Providence.

I said all along, that Auburn had to win the SEC tourney to get in. And they didn't so I don't see it happening, and putting my bias aside, I don't think they should get in. The only hope is if the committee wants more than 2 SEC teams to get in. In that case, Auburn is next in line (assuming Miss St loses in the championship game). There's also the fact that while other bubble teams were choking down the stretch, Auburn was playing the best ball of the season. Yeah the SEC was way down, but it's not like Auburn squeaked by its opponents in winning 9 out of the last 11. The 2 losses were to LSU and Tennessee. Of the 9 wins, only 3 were by less than 12 points (by 3 over UF,by 4 at Alabama on their senior night, and by 1 against UT). Auburn dominated the rest of those games and certainly looked good enough to be a tourney team. But the season as whole wasn't as pretty, and it'll keep them out...as I think it should. And this is coming from an Auburn fan (and graduate), so I don't want to hear all this bias talk.

Great post, and glad to see someone who can fairly evaluate his team.

I agree with you about the mid-majors, but St. Mary's has a couple other nice wins to throw in there as well, and if you watched them with Mills before he got hurt, they looked AWESOME. I do agree that it's unfair how we judge mid-majors winning games. However, on the flip side, lots of teams just refuse to play the higher mid-majors in fear of losing (CAA, Valley, West Coast, etc, the good mid-major leagues). You really just have to balance everything out, keeping in mind that the mid-majors have a lot fewer chances to get good wins than the bigger conference guys.

According to Lunardi, there are 7 teams for 3 spots right now, assuming Tennessee wins tomorrow.

Auburn, Arizona, Maryland, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Creighton, and Penn State.

If I could take three from that group, I have Maryland, Arizona, and St. Mary's in, with San Diego State my last team out, blaming USC for not getting in, and probably Creighton as my next team out, blaming Cleveland State for not getting in.