Xavier Avery

[Frobby]

Shrug. If the organization thinks it's beneficial for his development to move him up, I'm not going to throw a fit. But I don't think the potential positives of such a move outweigh the potential negatives. He could tackle one level a year and still be in Baltimore by age 22. I'd be much more comfortable with him flying through the upper levels (splitting time between HiA/AA. AA/AAA, or even eventually skipping AAA) than have him essentially skip from Gulf Coast Rookie to HiA in six months or so of professional ball.

Now that I realize that Avery's OPS is well over 1.000 in May, I'd be more willing to consider promoting him if he performs at a similar level in June. To me, once you are in the .900+ area, you're a candidate for promotion. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. That will be a good discussion to have a month from now if the numbers are there.

[ChaosLex]

What's Crawford's comp? Heyward? Crawford?

[PaulBako]

What's Crawford's comp? Heyward? Crawford?

Carl Crawford is Carl Crawford.

[Arthur_Bryant]

What's Crawford's comp? Heyward? Crawford?

Crawford was clearly a more advanced player at the same age, but every week that goes by, the difference seems less obvious.

[LookinUp]

In the end, I think Avery will largely make this decision for the O's. If he continues to tear things up, they may not have any choice but to promote him. I agree that he should absolutely have to force the decision at this point though. I just think he's starting to creep into the realm of those who would push the decision.

Frobby's right...this will be an interesting conversation in another month.

[Stotle]

Now that I realize that Avery's OPS is well over 1.000 in May, I'd be more willing to consider promoting him if he performs at a similar level in June. To me, once you are in the .900+ area, you're a candidate for promotion. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. That will be a good discussion to have a month from now if the numbers are there.

My issue with this thinking is that minor league stats may not tell the whole story (and I'd bet a lot of times they don't) when it comes to the actual developmental progress of a player.

For example, quick back of the napkin scratch (using minorleaguesplits.com)

Avery's Actual Line (raw stats):

April: .185/.185/.200/.385 (BABIP .286)

May: .393/.460/.625/1.085 (BABIP .467)

Total: .281/.320/.397/.717 (BABIP .379)

Avery's Line Neutralizing for Luck and Park Effects:

April: .246/.246/.262/.508 (BABIP .381)

May: .268/.349/.446/.795 (BABIP .311)

Total: .256/.297/.364/.661 (BABIP .345)

Now, of course this is a cursory glance, and you'd need to do more digging to make a stronger argument. But at this basic level it looks like, while Avery has improved, his improvements may not be as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe. While the stats are nice, I don't want any confusion as to whether or not a player this young is ready when it comes to advancing him two levels above what his age would generally suggest.

[Stotle]

Let's face it - Suddenly, Avery is starting to show as good plate discipline as any three or four guys in the organization. I do not know if this will continue, but if Avery continues to post an obp well north of 400 (not saying he will), it would not appear that he's being challenged.

This would be a pretty rare promotion for a HSer, but, IMO, Avery would be promotion worthy if his current pace of production is maintained.

See my above post regarding minor league stats -- I think you need to look at much more when considering this drastic a promotion (18-year old to HiA).

[Frobby]

My issue with this thinking is that minor league stats may not tell the whole story (and I'd bet a lot of times they don't) when it comes to the actual developmental progress of a player.

For example, quick back of the napkin scratch (using minorleaguesplits.com)

Avery's Actual Line (raw stats):

April: .185/.185/.200/.385 (BABIP .286)

May: .393/.460/.625/1.085 (BABIP .467)

Total: .281/.320/.397/.717 (BABIP .379)

Avery's Line Neutralizing for Luck and Park Effects:

April: .246/.246/.262/.508 (BABIP .381)

May: .268/.349/.446/.795 (BABIP .311)

Total: .256/.297/.364/.661 (BABIP .345)

Now, of course this is a cursory glance, and you'd need to do more digging to make a stronger argument. But at this basic level it looks like, while Avery has improved, his improvements may not be as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe. While the stats are nice, I don't want any confusion as to whether or not a player this young is ready when it comes to advancing him two levels above what his age would generally suggest.

What you say here makes a lot of sense to me. Put it this way, raw stats would never be my sole criterion for deciding if a player were ready for a promotion. However, I'm also a little skeptical of BABIP analyses, and the longer a player maintains good numbers, the less likely it is that he is doing it by getting lucky. So, if Avery had an OPS over 1.000 for two straight months, I'd be far less inclined to believe he was just getting the breaks or playing in favorable conditions, than I would be today based on 3 weeks of good performance. And obviously you'd want to hear from the manager and scouts as to what's happening.

Do the "neutral" stats you cite treat all batted balls in play the same, or do they disinguish line drives, grounders and fly outs? Either way, I still think these tools are pretty rough. Not all line drives are created equal.

[Stotle]

What you say here makes a lot of sense to me. Put it this way, raw stats would never be my sole criterion for deciding if a player were ready for a promotion. However, I'm also a little skeptical of BABIP analyses, and the longer a player maintains good numbers, the less likely it is that he is doing it by getting lucky. So, if Avery had an OPS over 1.000 for two straight months, I'd be far less inclined to believe he was just getting the breaks or playing in favorable conditions, than I would be today based on 3 weeks of good performance. And obviously you'd want to hear from the manager and scouts as to what's happening.

Do the "neutral" stats you cite treat all batted balls in play the same, or do they disinguish line drives, grounders and fly outs? Either way, I still think these tools are pretty rough. Not all line drives are created equal.

To be honest, I don't know the answer to your questions. Perhaps one of the more statistically inclined posters could chime in. If I had to guess I'd say the neutralized stats try to account for irregularity in stats like BABIP on LD/GB/FB (my understanding is that those percentages are pretty uniform and hold true across players and years). I'm sure Crawdad knows these numbers off the top of his head -- I'm just not familiar enough with them, sorry.

[Arthur_Bryant]

The splits suggest that Avery has been hitting into a lot more luck during the past four weeks, especially against LHP (.500 BABIP).

However this has also been accompanied by a very nice improvements in his K% and K:BB rate, for which luck does not account.

I would guess that luck has been a part of it, but that Avery has driven it himself as well by looking for better pitches and putting the ball in play more effectively. The fact that the improved approach has accompanied the improved results is not likely to be a coincidence.

To put it another way, a bloop that falls between three fielders and a tweener in the gap are both lucky, but they're different kinds of lucky.

In any case, another month will add that much more to the conversation.

[crawdad]

To be honest, I don't know the answer to your questions. Perhaps one of the more statistically inclined posters could chime in. If I had to guess I'd say the neutralized stats try to account for irregularity in stats like BABIP on LD/GB/FB (my understanding is that those percentages are pretty uniform and hold true across players and years). I'm sure Crawdad knows these numbers off the top of his head -- I'm just not familiar enough with them, sorry.

Neutralized stats typically take into consideration league, park, and hit type. Hit % for the pros are LD 73%, FB 15%, and GB 26%. Those numbers trend upward the further down the pro chain you go. You can see that a lot of Avery's success has come from hitting ground balls. That part is probably going to erode a bit. He has been successful, but I think it might be a bit too early to say he should be promoted. I'd feel better if his secondary power was a bit more. I imagine that might come a little later.

[blid]

My issue with this thinking is that minor league stats may not tell the whole story (and I'd bet a lot of times they don't) when it comes to the actual developmental progress of a player.

For example, quick back of the napkin scratch (using minorleaguesplits.com)

Avery's Actual Line (raw stats):

April: .185/.185/.200/.385 (BABIP .286)

May: .393/.460/.625/1.085 (BABIP .467)

Total: .281/.320/.397/.717 (BABIP .379)

Avery's Line Neutralizing for Luck and Park Effects:

April: .246/.246/.262/.508 (BABIP .381)

May: .268/.349/.446/.795 (BABIP .311)

Total: .256/.297/.364/.661 (BABIP .345)

Now, of course this is a cursory glance, and you'd need to do more digging to make a stronger argument. But at this basic level it looks like, while Avery has improved, his improvements may not be as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe. While the stats are nice, I don't want any confusion as to whether or not a player this young is ready when it comes to advancing him two levels above what his age would generally suggest.

That looks weird to me. In Avery's actual stats, he had a much higher BABIP in May than April (by 180 points). The neutralized stats didn't just "neutralize" that stat, they flopped it so his BABIP is 70 points higher in April than in May! Can the home/away schedule really be uneven enough to make that much of a difference?

Anyway, though, it's still an extreme improvement. OBP up 100 points in May, SLG up 180 even in the neutralized stats.

[crawdad]

That looks weird to me. In Avery's actual stats, he had a much higher BABIP in May than April (by 180 points). The neutralized stats didn't just "neutralize" that stat, they flopped it so his BABIP is 70 points higher in April than in May! Can the home/away schedule really be uneven enough to make that much of a difference?

Anyway, though, it's still an extreme improvement. OBP up 100 points in May, SLG up 180 even in the neutralized stats.

It is about hit type.

[hoosiers]

BABIP is a statistic that means little to me - especially the way they contort here.

The BBs and Ks are a significantly better predictor of major league success. The kid is controlling the strike zone and likely hitting the ball significantly harder than in April.

[hoosiers]

But at this basic level it looks like, while Avery has improved, his improvements may not be as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe.

From such a quality poster, this is just a ridiculous statement.

I think it would be nearly impossible to understate the improvement Avery has had from April to May - one look at the total XBHs plus BBs, at the BBs/K, at the K/AB, it's an almost incomprehensible improvement month to month.