Jump to content

Xavier Avery


BringBackMagic

Recommended Posts

Since the other thread was locked, figured I'd start up this since a lot of people have enjoyed talking about his progress.

Today (May 12) he went 1-4 with a double, a run scored and a walk.

In his last 10 games, he's batting .406 with 3 doubles, 3 triples and a bomb. Most importantly, though, he's only struck out 6 times in those 10 games, (32 at bats) and walked for the first four times this season. That puts his OBP at .472.

Year to date numbers: .277/.305/.416, 11 runs, 4 doubles, 3 triples, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 30 K

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 124
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Since the other thread was locked, figured I'd start up this since a lot of people have enjoyed talking about his progress.

Today (May 12) he went 1-4 with a double, a run scored and a walk.

In his last 10 games, he's batting .406 with 3 doubles, 3 triples and a bomb. Most importantly, though, he's only struck out 6 times in those 10 games, (32 at bats) and walked for the first four times this season. That puts his OBP at .472.

Year to date numbers: .277/.305/.416, 11 runs, 4 doubles, 3 triples, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 30 K

Will the real Avery please stand up.:wedge:

That is an amazing turn around even considering the small sample size.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta love it when the really toolsy guys start showing improvement. We'll need to see a lot more for a lot longer before we start getting too excited about Xavier, he's still incredibly young, but gotta like seeing him make adjustments. Speaks to how hard he must be working. He and Hoes are looking like nice picks early on for Jordan, lets hope they can continue making strides.

And man, what an awesome name.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Avery is probably the biggest surprise of the season so far. I thought he had long-term potential, but I am really surprised to see him holding his own at Delmarva at age 19. I didn't think he'd be ready to do that. Obviously he needs to work on the plate discipline, but overall it's hard to complain. His OPS now is only .042 what Matt Angle put up last year at Delmarva as a polished 22-year old who had played 3 years of college ball. Hopefully he can get his OBP a little higher as the season progresses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Avery is my favorite prospect right now to be honest, well next MW. I think of Carl Crawford when I read his scouting reports. Seeing him put it together is awesome, especially so quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta love it when the really toolsy guys start showing improvement. We'll need to see a lot more for a lot longer before we start getting too excited about Xavier, he's still incredibly young, but gotta like seeing him make adjustments. Speaks to how hard he must be working. He and Hoes are looking like nice picks early on for Jordan, lets hope they can continue making strides.

And man, what an awesome name.

What is it you need to see him do a "lot longer" before getting excited? He's one of our hottest hitters in the minors and lately has reduced his various K and BB numbers to more than acceptable levels to go with strong xbh numbers as well. In other words, he's currently performing better than a lot of hitters you are probably excited about now.

What is there not to be excited about?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is it you need to see him do a "lot longer" before getting excited? He's one of our hottest hitters in the minors and lately has reduced his various K and BB numbers to more than acceptable levels to go with strong xbh numbers as well. In other words, he's currently performing better than a lot of hitters you are probably excited about now.

What is there not to be excited about?

The fact that Avery's K/BB numbers have moved from "huge red flag" to "not quite so worrisome" isn't nearly enough to allay fears about his zone recognition and command/control.

That's the real worry. And - if I had to guess - will be the main worry with Avery going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is it you need to see him do a "lot longer" before getting excited? He's one of our hottest hitters in the minors and lately has reduced his various K and BB numbers to more than acceptable levels to go with strong xbh numbers as well. In other words, he's currently performing better than a lot of hitters you are probably excited about now.

What is there not to be excited about?

He's 19 years old and he's in Low-A ball.

I'm not saying he should be younger for that league, or that his numbers aren't very encouraging especially for a young guy in his first full-season experience. They certainly are, and its great that he's making strides.

I didn't say I'm not excited, I said "we need to see a lot more for a lot longer before we start getting too excited". That's true. He's still many years away from the majors, which was my point.

He's got a chance to get squarely on the prospect map this season. But even if he does, he's still not at a point where we should start penciling him in for an outfield spot in a few years. He's a long ways away. Fortunately time is very much on his side. He could do a full season at Delmarva, Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk before making his debut and still hit the majors as just a 23 year old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fact that Avery's K/BB numbers have moved from "huge red flag" to "not quite so worrisome" isn't nearly enough to allay fears about his zone recognition and command/control.

That's the real worry. And - if I had to guess - will be the main worry with Avery going forward.

Last 10 games have 6Ks in 36 ABs - isn't that around or better than league average? Let's stop with the "not quite worrisome" already.

What I'm saying (and with Mackus) is that Avery is "there" - he is currently producing at or above the high range of expectations (producing for several weeks at levels we would be excited for Rowell, Snyder and Reimold) across a wide sprectrum of statistics (including BBs and Ks and xbhs). He's been doing this for several weeks, but he really just needs to keep on doing what he's doing and his prospect status will soar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last 10 games have 6Ks in 36 ABs - isn't that around or better than league average? Let's stop with the "not quite worrisome" already.

What I'm saying (and with Mackus) is that Avery is "there" - he is currently producing at or above the high range of expectations (producing for several weeks at levels we would be excited for Rowell, Snyder and Reimold) across a wide sprectrum of statistics (including BBs and Ks and xbhs). He's been doing this for several weeks, but he really just needs to keep on doing what he's doing and his prospect status will soar.

I think the issue is that these are good trends for Avery but it is still a small sample. He could just be on a hot streak and seeing the ball well. For all we know, he could revert back to the old K rate and not get hits. My guess is he is adjusting very fast but he is a raw player and struggled mightily to begin the season, so having some doubts or tempering enthusiasm should not be a surprise for some people.

I am excited about Avery's progress as he seems to be making giant leaps of improvement. As it sounds like most on here are saying, I hope he can keep up the improvement. If he keeps this up, he should soar onto national prospect rankings as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm only speaking for myself, but with regards to prospect progression I try not to get too high on the highs or too low on the lows. I'm really happy and excited about Avery's production and look forward to seeing him play more this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last 10 games have 6Ks in 36 ABs - isn't that around or better than league average? Let's stop with the "not quite worrisome" already.

What I'm saying (and with Mackus) is that Avery is "there" - he is currently producing at or above the high range of expectations (producing for several weeks at levels we would be excited for Rowell, Snyder and Reimold) across a wide sprectrum of statistics (including BBs and Ks and xbhs). He's been doing this for several weeks, but he really just needs to keep on doing what he's doing and his prospect status will soar.

Any prospect can be league average in avoiding strikeouts over a 10 game period. You know better than to use that as the basis of any lasting satisfaction that his K/BB rates are no longer a concern.

I can't believe you even suggested that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • That would change my calculus as well.  I think they should let him go 140-150 and imagine with limits and some time on IL he will go 100-120. 
    • A good example of this is the Shields trade. That got them Myers and Odorizzi, who gives them 8 WAR, along with Mike Montgomery. Myers doesn't do much for them, but he is flipped for Souza (6+ WAR). Then Souza is flipped for Solak. Solak is traded before getting to the majors, getting them another 2 WAR from Pete Fairbanks. Montgomery gets them an additional 2 WAR in the form of Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez gets them 1 WAR in a year of Steve Cishek. If you just look at what Myers and Odorizzi did for Tampa the deal looks just okay, but then if you consider what those players were turned into it's a pretty huge win for Tampa. 
    • Correa is just another asset.  If they think they have a better chance signing him than some of the available pitchers on, then they'd be silly to not take the asset available.   That in turn allows them to flip a package for a more impactful pitcher.  I do not think it will happen, but I'd be thrilled.   I think the chances this org signs a high-end position player is a lot better than a high-end pitcher.   For the record I’m not advocating going hard for him, just that we’d be remiss to not explore all avenues and there is a world where it could be a good move.  
    • https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rucins000dre
    • He allows us to trade a seriously high-end prospect to get a seriously high-end SP.  So with that line of thinking I believe he improves the team dramatically.  
    • It is often suggested that we should follow the "Tampa model" when it comes to trading players before they reach free agency.   But what exactly is the "Tampa model?"   I went back and looked at every trade Tampa made since 2008, the first year they made the playoffs.   They have made a ton of trades over the last 14 years -- way too many to list them all.   But, I tried to gather up the ones that involved them trading away players who had been key contributors for them.   Even that is a long list: 12/10/08 Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.   Jackson had only two years of service, and was coming off a 2.4 rWAR campaign.   He was traded for Joyce, who had a 1.7 rWAR rookie campaign and was under control for 6 more years.  Jocce was worth 10.3 rWAR for the Rays. 8/29/09 Scott Kazmir for Matt Sweeny, Alex Torres and Sean Rodriguez.  Kazmir was having a poor season (-0.7 rWAR when traded) after several stellar years, and was under control for one more season.   Rodriguez ended up producing 7.9 rWAR for Tampa in the next 5 years. 12/17/10 Jason Bartlett for Cole Figueroa, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell.   Bartlett had been worth 2.5 rWAR in 2010, and had one year of control remaining.   None of the players coming back had a major impact, and Bartlett had a poor year as well. 1/8/11 Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and Zac Rosscup for Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos,  Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and Hak-Ju Lee.   Garza was a former Super-Two entering his second year of arbitration, under control for three more seasons, coming off a 1.6 rWAR season but a 15-10 record.   Archer produced 13.7 rWAR for Tampa, Fuld 2.3 rWAR, Guyer 4.9.   12/9/12 Wade Davis and James Shields for Mike Montgomery, Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard.  Shields had signed a very team friendly deal with Tampa early in his career that had him under control through 2014 (two more seasons) at below market prices, and was coming off a 5.8 rWAR season.   Davis was under control for four more seasons and was coming off a 1.5 rWAR season in his first year as a reliever.  Myers was BA’s no. 4 prospect at the time of the trade.  He did not produce much for Tampa before being traded two years later, but Odorizzi produced 8.2 rWAR for Tampa. 1/22/14 Alex Torres and Jesse Hahn for Brad Boxberger, Logan Forsythe and Mike Andriese.  Torres had an excellent 2013 campaign in which he posted a 1.71 ERA, good for 1.9 rWAR.   He only had 141 days of service, so was under control for 6 more years.   As it turns out, he only pitched two more years after the trade, worth 0.1 rWAR.  Hahn, who hadn’t pitched in the majors yet, was worth 1.7 rWAR.   Boxberger was worth 2.3 rWAR for Tampa, Forsythe 9.4, Andriese 1.7.  7/31/14 David Price for Wily Adames, Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin.   Price, who had been a Super-2, was 1.3 seasons from free agency when traded, and having a typical Price year (2.7 rWAR at the deadline).   Adames was worth 7.6 rWAR for Tampa before being traded to make way for Wander Franco, Smyly was worth 3.8 rWAR before being traded, and Franklin didn’t really amount to anything for the Rays. 1/10/15 Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist for John Jaso, Boog Powell, and Dave Robertson.  Zobrist had one year remaining on a below-market contract, as did Escobar.  Zobrist was coming off a 4.4 rWAR season, while Escobar had a poor season.  This trade did not turn into much, though Robertson was worth 2.3 rWAR for Tampa, and Jaso in his second stint with the team produced 1.0 rWAR.  8/1/16 Matt Moore for Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox and Michael Santos.  Moore had been inked to a deal that extended through 2016 with 3 club options, and was having a so-so season (1.3 rWAR at the deadline) at the time of the trade.   Duffy had one nice season for Tampa, the other two never really did anything. 1/11/17 Drew Smyly for Mallex Smith and Ryan Yarbrough.   Smyly, a former Super 2, had two years of control remaining when traded and as coming off his worst season (0.1 rWAR), though he’d made 30 starts and had been worth 7.6 rWAR in his time with Tampa.  Smith was worth 4.8 rWAR in the next two years for Tampa before being traded away, and Yarbrough has been worth 2.4 rWAR. 1/23/17 Logan Forsythe for Jose De Leon.   Forsythe had a 3.5 rWAR season for Tampa in 2016 and was under contract through 2018 (option year).   De Leon got hurt and did not do much for Tampa. 7/31/17 Tim Beckham for Toby Myers.   Beckham had been an nunderproductive no. 1 overall pick in the draft, while Myers was a low-level minors lotter ticket with upside.   Neither panned out. 2/17/18 Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios.  Odorizzi had an off year in 2017 but had been worth 8.2 rWAR to the Rays.   He had two years of control left when traded.  Palacios never amounted to anything. 2/20/18 Steven Souza Jr. for Nick Solak, Anthony Banda and Colin Poche.  Souza was just entering his Arb years when traded, and coming off a 3.9 rWAR season.   None of the players received have been big contributors for Tampa. 7/31/18 Chris Archer for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz.   What a steal for Tampa.  Archer was under contract through 2019 with options for 2020-21.   He’d been worth 12.5 rWAR for Tampa but was in the midst of a mediocre season.   He didn’t do much for Pittsuburgh and they ended up declininging his 2021 option year, after he didn’t pitch in 2020.   Meanwhile, Glasnow has been worth 4.7 rWAR for Tampa, Meadows was worth 6.2 before being traded again, and Baz was one of the top-ranked pitching prospects in the game going into 2022, before getting hurt. 12/29/20 Blake Snell for Francisco Mejia, Luis Patino, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox.  Snell won the Cy Young award in 2018 and was locked up through 2023 when he was traded.   He’d been worth 1.0 rWAR in the Covid-shortened season before he was traded, and 11.6 rWAR for Tampa overall, the majority coming in his Cy Young campaign.   Patino was a highly regarded prospect at the time, ranked no. 23 by BA.   He hasn’t done much for Tampa, nor have the others. 11/30/21 Joey Wendle for Kameron Misner.   Wendle was coming off an all-star, 3.9 rWAR season, with two years of control remaining.   Misner had played in Hi A/AA the year prior to the trade.  He spent 2022 in AA. 4/5/22 Austin Meadows for Isaac Paredes.  Meadows had a 2.0 rWAR season for Tampa in 2021, and had been worth 6.2 rWAR after being acquired in the Archer deal at the 2018 trade deadline.   Tampa held Paredes in the minors for the first month of the season, and he ended the year with 1.160 years of service, while producing 1.9 rWAR in 111 games this year.  As you can see, Tampa has not hesitated to trade significant players.   Of these, only the David Price deal was a "last minute" deal at the trade deadline on the eve of free agency for the player.   Several of the players (Shields, Zobrist, Moore, Archer and Snell) had signed team-friendly extensions and were traded anyway.  Oftentimes, Tampa acquired players in trades and then traded them away a couple of years later.  Joyce, Kazmir, Bartlett, Garza, Jaso, Mallex Smith, Forsythe, Odorizzi, Souza, Archer, Wendle and Meadows are all examples of this.  (I may not have listed all of the transactions involving these players.)    I should emphasize again that the list above is a subset of the trades.   Probably less than 1/3 of all the trades they made in that time span.   Other trades sometimes invloved prospects for young players, or older veterans for veterans.   I can't imagine that there are many teams who've traded as actively as Tampa has.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...