Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"

[TiredofLosing20]

The 1997 O's got a combined OPS of about .774 at 1B/3B, and about the same at DH, all while carrying .601 OPS Bordick at SS.

This thread has gone far afield. Don't we want to find out what Snyder and Bell can do? We are debating whether we can carry two sub-.800 OPS corner infielders, before we know that this is what we should expect from these guys.

Just wanted to quote this post so it doesn't get lost.

[Sports Guy]

It's not about OPS anymore. It's about WAR IMO.

We need around 50 WAR to have a shot in this division.

Whatever combo defensively or offensively gets us to that number is what we need.

LOL..Foolish answer...It really has all to do about scoring runs and preventing runs...Asking about team OPS and team ERA is just a quick, short hand way of answering it.

If this team puts up an 800ish team OPS, they will score enough runs to contend...there is very little doubt about that.

[Frobby]

LOL...You continue to ignore WHAT YOU SAID.

What team OPS do you think this team needs to contend?

That's not a question one can answer without knowing the other half of the equation, i.e., how good is the pitching? The 2008 Rays had a .762 OPS and won the pennant. The 2009 Rays had a .782 OPS and finished well back.

If you want my opinion (I know the question wasn't directed to me), a .780 OPS can put us in contention if the pitching is pretty good.

[JTrea81]

Please don't gloss over this post, Trea.

For the zillionth time, you grossly underestimate the importance of starting pitching.

Oh I know our SP is important. And I can pretty much guarantee our 2011 rotation won't touch the performance of that 1997 staff.

That's why we need an offense to back up our pitching staff, to give them the support they need to win games.

[Hank Scorpio]

Yep...And he continues to ignore what he has said about the production of the other 6 players..I continue to ask him about it but he runs away and hides from that discussion.

I think his reply plate is significant since he's such a polarizing poster.

I'll say this for the dude, he usually addresses all of the arrows shot at him in one way or another.

Usually unconvincingly, however...

[Hank Scorpio]

Oh I know our SP is important. And I can pretty much guarantee our 2011 rotation won't touch the performance of that 1997 staff.

That's why we need an offense to back up our pitching staff, to give them the support they need to win games.

You and your guarantees.

[TiredofLosing20]

That's not a question one can answer without knowing the other half of the equation, i.e., how good is the pitching? The 2008 Rays had a .762 OPS and won the pennant. The 2009 Rays had a .782 OPS and finished well back.

If you want my opinion (I know the question wasn't directed to me), a .780 OPS can put us in contention if the pitching is pretty good.

I am sorry. Is pitching important? I mean can building a team around pitching be a successful strategy and help mask (perceived) shortcomings in 1B and 3B OPS?

[Frobby]

LOL..Foolish answer...It really has all to do about scoring runs and preventing runs...Asking about team OPS and team ERA is just a quick, short hand way of answering it.

If this team puts up an 800ish team OPS, they will score enough runs to contend...there is very little doubt about that.

Still depends on the pitching. Case in point, the 2006 Blue Jays, who had an .811 OPS (2nd in the AL) and won 87 games because it was a down year for their pitching staff.

[Lucky Jim]

That's not a question one can answer without knowing the other half of the equation, i.e., how good is the pitching? The 2008 Rays had a .762 OPS and won the pennant. The 2009 Rays had a .782 OPS and finished well back.

If you want my opinion (I know the question wasn't directed to me), a .780 OPS can put us in contention if the pitching and defense are pretty good.

I think this component is getting lost in the noise. We need Jones and Markakis back at their 2008 levels on defense. That would give us an increase of 3.5 WAR or so, not counting any offensive improvement. It's also a key to the 2008 Rays versus the 2009 Rays. While still good in 2009, they lost a lot of defensive efficiency from their 2008 peak, and their pitchers paid the price.

[TiredofLosing20]

Oh I know our SP is important. And I can pretty much guarantee our 2011 rotation won't touch the performance of that 1997 staff.

That's why we need an offense to back up our pitching staff, to give them the support they need to win games.

You have a point here. We will need an extremely strong staff to get to the 1997 level. With that said, I think that is why you have to invest heavily in your pitching and not trade it away in bulk.

[ShaneDawg85]

Oh I know our SP is important. And I can pretty much guarantee our 2011 rotation won't touch the performance of that 1997 staff.

That's why we need an offense to back up our pitching staff, to give them the support they need to win games.

Care to quantify this or give us any kind of proof that says it can't happen? Oh wait, you can't.

[LookinUp]

If this team puts up an 800ish team OPS, they will score enough runs to contend...there is very little doubt about that.

Trea, read the quote above again. Winning is about runs for and runs against for an entire team, not a specific position.

Why don't you go do the analysis? Project out our lineup in 2011/2012. Use .625 as the OPS at SS and a league average DH (we obviously hope to have better at both positions, but we don't know right now). Then tell us what OPS Snyder and Bell would have to have in order for the O's (as a team) to have a .780 OPS.

In other words, back up your argument with data, or just fall on your sword in believing that team stats are less important than individual position stats.

[Frobby]

Oh I know our SP is important. And I can pretty much guarantee our 2011 rotation won't touch the performance of that 1997 staff.

That's why we need an offense to back up our pitching staff, to give them the support they need to win games.

We do need both, I agree. Basically, we need to outscore our opponents by ~ 150 runs. Even if the pitching is very good, we need more offense than we have gotten in any year since 2004.

[Frobby]

I think this component is getting lost in the noise. We need Jones and Markakis back at their 2008 levels on defense. That would give us an increase of 3.5 WAR or so, not counting any offensive improvement. It's also a key to the 2008 Rays versus the 2009 Rays. While still good in 2009, they lost a lot of defensive efficiency from their 2008 peak, and their pitchers paid the price.

Good point. Pie in LF 75% of the time would help.

[JTrea81]

That's not a question one can answer without knowing the other half of the equation, i.e., how good is the pitching? The 2008 Rays had a .762 OPS and won the pennant. The 2009 Rays had a .782 OPS and finished well back.

If you want my opinion (I know the question wasn't directed to me), a .780 OPS can put us in contention if the pitching is pretty good.

The Rays had 49.5 WAR in 2008 and 50.9 WAR in 2009

Their hitting improved by 3.0 WAR and their pitching decreased by 1.6 WAR

However the Yankees improved as well going from 42.6 WAR in 2008 to 57.0 WAR in 2009.

The Red Sox actually declined from 57 WAR in 2008 to 51 in 2009, but had enough to top the Rays.