Signing Vlad was big mistake

[WV O's]

He is quite amazing really. He has little to no plate discipline and sees very few of a pitcher's pitches, and yet leads our team in BA (.319 lifetime). Imagine if he looked for HIS pitch? He throws away at bats but still hits for a high average. He is fascinating. Must see AB's.

I just wonder what he looked like 5 years ago at the plate on a nightly basis.

I really like him on our team. Hope he can get above .800 ops to end year.

BTW. I think the meals his mom makes may be catching up to him. Imagine if he ate healthily? Just a thought.

[alaniee]

That's the thing with Vlad, he's NEVER looked for "his" pitch as you call it. He's always been a free swinger. He hits balls so out of the strike zone that nobody else would have thunk about swinging at. That's just the way he hits and he's very successful at it.

I'm still very excited that we have him on our roster and am glad he's starting to heat up with his bat. He's a very professional hitter and will be a professional hitter no matter where he plays or no matter what kind of pitch he swings at.

It's just too bad his knees are so bad, I remember seeing highlights of him during his expos days... Pretty quick guy. Leave his mother's cooking alone, it keeps him happy. We need Vlad happy. He's still fit.

[HokieOs]

He's having a bit of a down year... but the average is picking up. His May numbers (average wise) are much closer to his career numbers. The HRs still haven't been there... but they will come. We might not see the 35-40 HRs many thought when he got to Camden Yards... but if we can even get 25-30, he will have been well worth the money. Especially if he can get his clip up to .300 with an OPS of over .800.

[El Gordo]

Vlad is Ichiro with more power and no speed.

[Scrat1]

This thread has been pretty quiet of late -- Vlad is hitting .319/.407/.426 in May. Still not the power numbers we'd like to see (he hasn't homered in May but does have 5 doubles), but he's gotten a few walks here and there while hitting for average. He's only struck out 3 times all month. Hopefully Vlad has things going in the right direction.

If he hit at that clip for the rest of the year, I wouldn't complain at all.

[flashjordnk]

This thread has been pretty quiet of late -- Vlad is hitting .319/.407/.426 in May. Still not the power numbers we'd like to see (he hasn't homered in May but does have 5 doubles), but he's gotten a few walks here and there while hitting for average. He's only struck out 3 times all month. Hopefully Vlad has things going in the right direction.

I thought you told me I had to wait until the end of May to tell you why I thought Vlad was washed up for the year . Also I thought we couldn't look at 2 weeks of play as a fair sample size for the year.

His LD rate is up. His K rate is down. His BB rate is up. All great things. Actually the walks are the best. He's also not popping the ball up at absurd rates anymore. I still think the fact that he had 10 in April was really scary (in 2008 he had 12 all year). That's the good. The bad, he has as many XBH as Lee has this month. His BABIP is 341 during this mini stretch so there is a bit of luck involved. His swing and contact rates are normalizing, but we're not really getting much power form him. If he's not hitting for power...what are we really getting out of our cleanup spot?

Vlad is OPSing 727. I think the final numbers we're going to see are going to look like his 2008 season with a bit of regression for age. Take out the Arlington factor of last year he was a 796 OPS guy. I've seen nothing to change the fact that I think we'll see a guy that OPSes somewhere around 780 for the year. As I think his May's 833 is inflated by BABIP that's probably right around the pace we're on.

What if Vlad did exactly what he's done for the last 14 days for the rest of the year? He OPSed 833. Would you be happy with that? Would you say that made Vlad worth the signing?

[El Gordo]

I thought you told me I had to wait until the end of May to tell you why I thought Vlad was washed up for the year . Also I thought we couldn't look at 2 weeks of play as a fair sample size for the year.

His LD rate is up. His K rate is down. His BB rate is up. All great things. Actually the walks are the best. He's also not popping the ball up at absurd rates anymore. I still think the fact that he had 10 in April was really scary (in 2008 he had 12 all year). That's the good. The bad, he has as many XBH as Lee has this month. His BABIP is 341 during this mini stretch so there is a bit of luck involved. His swing and contact rates are normalizing, but we're not really getting much power form him. If he's not hitting for power...what are we really getting out of our cleanup spot?

Vlad is OPSing 727. I think the final numbers we're going to see are going to look like his 2008 season with a bit of regression for age. Take out the Arlington factor of last year he was a 796 OPS guy. I've seen nothing to change the fact that I think we'll see a guy that OPSes somewhere around 780 for the year. As I think his May's 833 is inflated by BABIP that's probably right around the pace we're on.

What if Vlad did exactly what he's done for the last 14 days for the rest of the year? He OPSed 833. Would you be happy with that? Would you say that made Vlad worth the signing?

An .830 OPS was what I was expecting from him. I'd be happy for that. Factor in the upgrade in production with Luke in LF and I'd say it was well worth the $5 M AM was willing to pay. If PA wanted to pay and extra $3 M out of his pocket to insure we got him, so much the better.

[Frobby]

This thread has been pretty quiet of late -- Vlad is hitting .319/.407/.426 in May. Still not the power numbers we'd like to see (he hasn't homered in May but does have 5 doubles), but he's gotten a few walks here and there while hitting for average. He's only struck out 3 times all month. Hopefully Vlad has things going in the right direction.

I thought you told me I had to wait until the end of May to tell you why I thought Vlad was washed up for the year . Also I thought we couldn't look at 2 weeks of play as a fair sample size for the year.

His LD rate is up. His K rate is down. His BB rate is up. All great things. Actually the walks are the best. He's also not popping the ball up at absurd rates anymore. I still think the fact that he had 10 in April was really scary (in 2008 he had 12 all year). That's the good. The bad, he has as many XBH as Lee has this month. His BABIP is 341 during this mini stretch so there is a bit of luck involved. His swing and contact rates are normalizing, but we're not really getting much power form him. If he's not hitting for power...what are we really getting out of our cleanup spot?

Vlad is OPSing 727. I think the final numbers we're going to see are going to look like his 2008 season with a bit of regression for age. Take out the Arlington factor of last year he was a 796 OPS guy. I've seen nothing to change the fact that I think we'll see a guy that OPSes somewhere around 780 for the year. As I think his May's 833 is inflated by BABIP that's probably right around the pace we're on.

What if Vlad did exactly what he's done for the last 14 days for the rest of the year? He OPSed 833. Would you be happy with that? Would you say that made Vlad worth the signing?

If you read my post, I didn't say anything about how Vlad will end up doing. All I said was "hopefully" he has things going in the right direction. So, I'm not making any projections based on a decent two weeks.

As to your prediction that he will end up around .780 OPS, I'd agree that's not far off the mark. I said going into the year I thought he'd be around .800ish. Would I be happy if he continued with an .833 OPS for the rest of the season? Absolutely. That would put him at ~ .807 for the year which is right around my expectation.

[Phantom]

At the end of the year, we will have won 1-2 more games, if that, than if we had played Pie in left and Scott at DH. That will be a huge waste of money, plus a huge waste of a development year for Pie.

[Scrat1]

What if Vlad did exactly what he's done for the last 14 days for the rest of the year? He OPSed 833. Would you be happy with that? Would you say that made Vlad worth the signing?

Considering how badly Reimold is struggling, I think a .833 OPS would totally justify the Vlad signing.

[flashjordnk]

If you read my post, I didn't say anything about how Vlad will end up doing. All I said was "hopefully" he has things going in the right direction. So, I'm not making any projections based on a decent two weeks.

As to your prediction that he will end up around .780 OPS, I'd agree that's not far off the mark. I said going into the year I thought he'd be around .800ish. Would I be happy if he continued with an .833 OPS for the rest of the season? Absolutely. That would put him at ~ .807 for the year which is right around my expectation.

Well in this post you didn't say anything about the rest of this year. But I've been told numerous times to wait to seal the deal on Vlad's fate until after the end of May. I was simply poking fun at that in the start of my post.

I think the fact that we think Vlad can be a 780 OPS kind of guy and we all accept that is the frustrating part for me. I'm frustrated that we have a guy that we have to pinch run for in Fox. That can't play any other positions and can only DH. If he's going to give us an OPS of just 780 out of all that, then I think the signing is a mistake. Vlad has 11 Extra Base Hits in 158 PA's. Fox has 4 in 38 PA's. I know you can't extrapolate, but if you did, Fox would lead this team in XBH's with over 16.

I really do think Fox could survive in that spot and OPS 780 for the year. He'd give us another bench spot for Tatum (or another real catcher) and open up a lot more options to this team. If we're all willing to get on board for a DH that can't do anything else at all...and 780 is a satisfactory bench mark for OPS, that's what frustrates me. If we were talking the 850+ OPS guy, I could live with that. But without the signs of that hitter, I'm just not sure if Vlad was worth the 8 million or what he brings at all.

Hitting is only a part of the game. And if our MOO isn't going to be an impact bat and can't fill in for average defense and needs to be pinch run for by the next slowest guy on the team, what are we really adding? That's the question I've been trying to ask all along.

[Frobby]

Yeah, I get your points. You made them very effectively at around the time we signed Vlad. I had mixed feelings about signing him, especially for $8 mm. But now that he's here, I just want him to do as well as possible.

[Phantom]

Considering how badly Reimold is struggling, I think a .833 OPS would totally justify the Vlad signing.

Would we have even needed Reimold with Pie/Scott/Fox in the fold?

[El Gordo]

Well in this post you didn't say anything about the rest of this year. But I've been told numerous times to wait to seal the deal on Vlad's fate until after the end of May. I was simply poking fun at that in the start of my post.

I think the fact that we think Vlad can be a 780 OPS kind of guy and we all accept that is the frustrating part for me. I'm frustrated that we have a guy that we have to pinch run for in Fox. That can't play any other positions and can only DH. If he's going to give us an OPS of just 780 out of all that, then I think the signing is a mistake. Vlad has 11 Extra Base Hits in 158 PA's. Fox has 4 in 38 PA's. I know you can't extrapolate, but if you did, Fox would lead this team in XBH's with over 16.

I really do think Fox could survive in that spot and OPS 780 for the year. He'd give us another bench spot for Tatum (or another real catcher) and open up a lot more options to this team. If we're all willing to get on board for a DH that can't do anything else at all...and 780 is a satisfactory bench mark for OPS, that's what frustrates me. If we were talking the 850+ OPS guy, I could live with that. But without the signs of that hitter, I'm just not sure if Vlad was worth the 8 million or what he brings at all.

Hitting is only a part of the game. And if our MOO isn't going to be an impact bat and can't fill in for average defense and needs to be pinch run for by the next slowest guy on the team, what are we really adding? That's the question I've been trying to ask all along.

We've heard all this before from you. Why not save it for June 1 when you'll have a leg or two to stand on....maybe.

[flashjordnk]

At the end of the year, we will have won 1-2 more games, if that, than if we had played Pie in left and Scott at DH. That will be a huge waste of money, plus a huge waste of a development year for Pie.

Right now though...that's still not even the case...Remember Vlad is OPSing a round 727 right now.

Considering how badly Reimold is struggling, I think a .833 OPS would totally justify the Vlad signing.

I also point out that I think it's inflated by BABIP and that it's been a bit lucky. I'm just saying the conversation has changed. When the upside and 833 OPS is what we're all really really hoping Vlad gets to. What's that really worth? This isn't about carrying the cross for Reimold. This about the money. The roster flexibility. And the fact that if we're going to take risks it shouldn't be on guys that are 35+ but guys that are under 28.

Here's a question, do you think if we didn't sign Vlad he would have landed with a different team? Or do you think he'd still be out there?