Nick's Knocks

[Frobby]

Don't have anyone specific in mind but if we spend the 15 million we are paying Nick, we can do much better. Don't get me wrong, I like Nick. I just don't see him being worth another big contract.

I don't know of anyone who thinks Nick is getting $15 mm or anywhere close to it. But you suggested we look elsewhere if he wants more than $5 mm. I don't think we are going to replace Nick for that little. Guys like Nate McLouth and Jonny Gomes are going for $5 mm/yr. Nick is younger, more durable, more consistent and more flexible than guys like that, so replacing him will cost more unless we have a younger in-house solution or trade some talent to get a younger player with potential.

[Frobby]

Id like to see people start listing specific players that can replace Nick for under 15 mil. Replace a near .300 hitter, high-end defender, elite arm, and our 2nd best OBP guy. Go ahead.

Looking at the potential FA list the only guys that have that potential are Melky Cabrera and Torii Hunter and honestly id take nick over both of those guys any day.

I think most people who place a low value on Nick don't think he is a high-end defender or has an elite arm anymore.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think most people who place a low value on Nick don't think he is a high-end defender or has an elite arm anymore.

I think I moderately value Nick, but it would be difficult to construct an objective case that he's an elite defender. No one argues he's particularly fast, his metrics are uniformly below-average, his assist totals have declined, and 2013 saw his highest percentage of baserunners advancing. You'd have to argue his elite qualities are completely masked by park and other effects.

[2010BUCK26]

Obviously I like Nick. Would like to see him stay an Oriole. He quietly goes about his business, you never hear him complain about what the team asks him to do. If he gets 2500 hits that's going to put him above a few HOF players. I doubt Nick would get in unless he improves another stat dramatically.

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[Frobby]

I think I moderately value Nick, but it would be difficult to construct an objective case that he's an elite defender. No one argues he's particularly fast, his metrics are uniformly below-average, his assist totals have declined, and 2013 saw his highest percentage of baserunners advancing. You'd have to argue his elite qualities are completely masked by park and other effects.

I agree with all that, though his percentage of holding baserunners is way up this year and I still feel his arm is above average, even "elite" is an overstatement at this point. I also don't think Nick's range is as bad as his detractors suggest. Inside Edge provides the following data for Nick for this year:

"Routine" plays: 100%

"Likely" plays (60-90% probability): 100%

"Even" plays (40-60% probability): 40%

"Unlikely" plays (10-40% probability): 50%

"Remote" plays (1-10% probability): 12.5%

"Impossible" plays: 0%

That certainly doesn't suggest he's awful out there.

[webbrick2010]

Alvarez (.343/.353/.568 in 48 games at Bowie) is intriguing. Of course, Henry Urrutia hit .365/.433/.550 for Bowie last year over 52 games, so I'm not exactly ready to assume that Alvarez's AA numbers foreshadow success in the major leagues. 3 walks in 208 PA in AA is a pretty big red flag. Can this team really afford to have yet one more hitter who never takes a walk? That's already the biggest weakness of our offense.

Just added Hundley... who has ZERO walks for the year.

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[Frobby]

March/April: .300/.360/.360 (4 doubles, 1 triple, 0 homers in 24 games)

May: .299/.348/.425 (7 doubles, 3 homers in 30 games)

Nick showed a little more power in May than he did in March/April, though still not where you'd like him to be. In his last 12 games, he's had 5 doubles and a homer, so it seems he has picked up the pace a little.

[Frobby]

HR, single and two walks tonight and on a 9-game hitting streak. Now hitting .308/.366/.413.

[allquixotic]

HR, single and two walks tonight and on a 9-game hitting streak. Now hitting .308/.366/.413.

He entered the game tonight as the #4 player in hits in the major league for 2014. At that clip, I honestly don't care if the vast majority of them are singles. If Nick singles that consistently, he's doing his job at the plate. It almost makes you want to put some good OBP guys at the bottom of the order so Nick comes up to the plate with a man on 2nd more often (except for the first inning for obvious reasons). Then his singles become RBIs.

[backwardsk]

He's been a great fit in the lead off spot. Really picked up Lough and Joseph in the sixth.

[Frobby]

He entered the game tonight as the #4 player in hits in the major league for 2014. At that clip, I honestly don't care if the vast majority of them are singles. If Nick singles that consistently, he's doing his job at the plate.

I'm still not completely satisfied with singles, considering that Nick has been a station to station baserunner this year and hence hasn't scored as many runs as you might expect from a leadoff hitter with a .366 OBP. I'm hoping Nick's power numbers continue to pick up, as they have in recent weeks.

[Frobby]

.395/.477/.579 on the road trip so far, with one game to go. Nick has hit .321/.398/.421 on the road this year.

[bobmc]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Markakis now batting .333 vs. LHP this season <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23orioles&src=hash">#orioles</a></p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">June 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm still not completely satisfied with singles, considering that Nick has been a station to station baserunner this year and hence hasn't scored as many runs as you might expect from a leadoff hitter with a .366 OBP. I'm hoping Nick's power numbers continue to pick up, as they have in recent weeks.

Orioles #2 hitters are putting up a .244/.298/.403 line (.022 OPS points below MLB average), which doesn't help Nick's runs scored totals.

An average MLB leadoff hitter would have scored 34 runs given 265 PAs. Nick has scored 25. If you want to compare to someone who's 180 degrees out from Nick (just because it's fun), Billy Hamilton has scored 23 runs in 44 games as a leadoff hitter.

[bobmc]

Orioles #2 hitters are putting up a .244/.298/.403 line (.022 OPS points below MLB average), which doesn't help Nick's runs scored totals.

An average MLB leadoff hitter would have scored 34 runs given 265 PAs. Nick has scored 25. If you want to compare to someone who's 180 degrees out from Nick (just because it's fun), Billy Hamilton has scored 23 runs in 44 games as a leadoff hitter.

Very good comp is Hamilton - just noodling it - let's say they were the same age and playing "choose-up" in the schoolyard. Who would you take on your team - Hamilton or Nicky? A skinny rail who has blazing speed or a muscled ath a lete who can pitch, hit and field? I know who I would take.....