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AJ's approach: Are you fine with it?


tettleton14

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About 1/3rd of Vlad's career walks were intentional. His UIBB rate was 5.5%. Jones' is 4.5%. Not counting the intentionals, per 100 PAs Vlad walked one more time than Jones. And Vlad almost certainly had more unintentional-intentional walks where the pitcher just wanted nothing to do with.

I always count on you to fix these apparent anomaly for me. Are you certain that they have not offered that Emperor slot?

Thanks for clearing that up.

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There are numerous pages (and pages) of posts explaining why the bolded is a negative exaggeration (at best) and flat-out wrong (at...most likely).

Right this second, out of all the position players in MLB, AJ is 5th in fWAR. If that's not elite, then I suppose you're waiting for the apologies of a few hundred MLers who aren't Mike Trout.

AJ's not an OBP machine. But he's fine as-is.

I think some folks have a rule of thumb that they can't call someone elite if they have an obvious flaw, even if the player's overall talent is prodigious and value is very great. Maybe they don't call Miguel Cabrera elite because he's a poor fielder and runs the bases like he's dragging a piano.

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I think some folks have a rule of thumb that they can't call someone elite if they have an obvious flaw, even if the player's overall talent is prodigious and value is very great. Maybe they don't call Miguel Cabrera elite because he's a poor fielder and runs the bases like he's dragging a piano.

Na. They call Mike Trout elite even though his is an average fielder. And Bud Norris owns him.

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I think some folks have a rule of thumb that they can't call someone elite if they have an obvious flaw, even if the player's overall talent is prodigious and value is very great. Maybe they don't call Miguel Cabrera elite because he's a poor fielder and runs the bases like he's dragging a piano.

One of the best descriptions of MCab's base jogging skills that I've ever seen.

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There are numerous pages (and pages) of posts explaining why the bolded is a negative exaggeration (at best) and flat-out wrong (at...most likely).

Right this second, out of all the position players in MLB, AJ is 5th in fWAR. If that's not elite, then I suppose you're waiting for the apologies of a few hundred MLers who aren't Mike Trout.

AJ's not an OBP machine. But he's fine as-is.

If I actually understood the metrics that go into fWAR then that would be meaningful to me. ESPN, which I believe uses rWAR, has him #17 this year (#26 last year). If you could enlighten me as to the difference I could be convinced - I am genuinely curious about the discrepancy. By OPS AJ is #35.

Look, AJ is a great player, I don't want him to change fundamentally, but I still see room for improvement, and it drives me nuts to hear him boasting about "hacking" and not getting paid to take walks. It really drives me nuts to see him swing at obvious ball fours. Believe me, Trout is going to get paid and a lot of his paycheck will be due to his incredible OBP.

Good point on Vlad's IBB%, but AJ is still worse than somebody who is a historically aggressive hitter.

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If I actually understood the metrics that go into fWAR then that would be meaningful to me. ESPN, which I believe uses rWAR, has him #17 this year (#26 last year). If you could enlighten me as to the difference I could be convinced - I am genuinely curious about the discrepancy. By OPS AJ is #35.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Regardless, even going by #17 in rWAR, that puts AJ in the top 4.5% of all major league position players. So, again, if that doesn't count as "elite," I don't know what to tell you.

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If I actually understood the metrics that go into fWAR then that would be meaningful to me. ESPN, which I believe uses rWAR, has him #17 this year (#26 last year). If you could enlighten me as to the difference I could be convinced - I am genuinely curious about the discrepancy. By OPS AJ is #35.

Look, AJ is a great player, I don't want him to change fundamentally, but I still see room for improvement, and it drives me nuts to hear him boasting about "hacking" and not getting paid to take walks. It really drives me nuts to see him swing at obvious ball fours. Believe me, Trout is going to get paid and a lot of his paycheck will be due to his incredible OBP.

Good point on Vlad's IBB%, but AJ is still worse than somebody who is a historically aggressive hitter.

I do not think Adam is as good as Vlad.

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Good point on Vlad's IBB%, but AJ is still worse than somebody who is a historically aggressive hitter.

Players with an equal or lower walk rate than Adam Jones (since WWII, min 1500 plate appearances) include: AJ Pierzynski, Mike Aviles, Bengie Molina, Kenji Jojhima, Shea Hillenbrand, Pat Borders, Shawon Dunston, Rex Hudler, Mariano Duncan, Brian Harper, Bill Buckner, Terry Francona, Damaso Garcia, Garth Iorg, Enos Cabell, Todd Cruz, Mickey Rivers, Rennie Stennett, Manny Sanguillen, Jesus Alou, Tommy Helms, Willie Davis, and Vic Power.

Interestingly, Jones has the highest OPS of anyone on that list. Highest OPS of anyone since WWII with a walk rate <= 4.5% of PAs. If you go way back in time both Wagon Tongue Bill Keister and Freddy Leach had higher OPSes with walk rates that low. In the very early years the walk rule and concept was somewhat different, so their rates were often really low, an average guy would have a handful a year, so I didn't look earlier than 1893.

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I don't want to mess with who he is. He's an all-star every year now and the leader of a team leading the division. I'm 100% fine with him staying with it.

He could walk more. He would also sacrifice hits to do so. Unless he were on a team where there were no other good hitters. Then he would walk a lot.

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Players with an equal or lower walk rate than Adam Jones (since WWII, min 1500 plate appearances) include: AJ Pierzynski, Mike Aviles, Bengie Molina, Kenji Jojhima, Shea Hillenbrand, Pat Borders, Shawon Dunston, Rex Hudler, Mariano Duncan, Brian Harper, Bill Buckner, Terry Francona, Damaso Garcia, Garth Iorg, Enos Cabell, Todd Cruz, Mickey Rivers, Rennie Stennett, Manny Sanguillen, Jesus Alou, Tommy Helms, Willie Davis, and Vic Power.

Interestingly, Jones has the highest OPS of anyone on that list. Highest OPS of anyone since WWII with a walk rate <= 4.5% of PAs. If you go way back in time both Wagon Tongue Bill Keister and Freddy Leach had higher OPSes with walk rates that low. In the very early years the walk rule and concept was somewhat different, so their rates were often really low, an average guy would have a handful a year, so I didn't look earlier than 1893.

So what you're saying is that Jones has a unique skillset that hasn't really been reproduced by others. That's probably accurate.

If he hits 40 HRs this year his IBB rate (and his pitch-around rate) will probably shoot up and he'll walk at a respectable rate.

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Players with an equal or lower walk rate than Adam Jones (since WWII, min 1500 plate appearances) include: AJ Pierzynski, Mike Aviles, Bengie Molina, Kenji Jojhima, Shea Hillenbrand, Pat Borders, Shawon Dunston, Rex Hudler, Mariano Duncan, Brian Harper, Bill Buckner, Terry Francona, Damaso Garcia, Garth Iorg, Enos Cabell, Todd Cruz, Mickey Rivers, Rennie Stennett, Manny Sanguillen, Jesus Alou, Tommy Helms, Willie Davis, and Vic Power.

Interestingly, Jones has the highest OPS of anyone on that list. Highest OPS of anyone since WWII with a walk rate <= 4.5% of PAs. If you go way back in time both Wagon Tongue Bill Keister and Freddy Leach had higher OPSes with walk rates that low. In the very early years the walk rule and concept was somewhat different, so their rates were often really low, an average guy would have a handful a year, so I didn't look earlier than 1893.

Two guys playing today who seem to have a similar profile are Wilin Rosario (.786 OPS, 4.5% walk rate in 1213 PA) and Salvador Perez (.775 OPS, 4.4% walk rate in 1382 PA). Both are younger than Adam and may pick up more plate discipline as they gain experience. And Rosario's .786 OPS is heavily influenced by playing at Coors. He's not really as good a hitter as Adam.

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