Roch: O's don't like Penn's attitude

[Leitch]

So are you actually saying you'd rather have Rodrigo Lopez or Steve Trachsel than John Maine at the present time?

For a league minimum salary, John Maine's production in 2006 was a steal. Ask the Met's fans what they think about John Maine. I guess we will have to see what happens in 2007. I still think we gave up on John Maine too early, and he'd look a lot better than Steve Trachsel in the Orioles' rotation for the next few years.

I'm saying Maine will turn into a pumpkin, and that I'd rather have last year's production from Benson than what the Orioles would have gotten from Maine considering their park, defense, and opposition.

Of course the Orioles look bad now, because Benson's finished and we didn't get anything for him.

[Mad Mark]

So are you actually saying you'd rather have Rodrigo Lopez or Steve Trachsel than John Maine at the present time?

For a league minimum salary, John Maine's production in 2006 was a steal. Ask the Met's fans what they think about John Maine. I guess we will have to see what happens in 2007. I still think we gave up on John Maine too early, and he'd look a lot better than Steve Trachsel or similar in the Orioles' rotation for the next few years.

But that's not the real question!

The real question was: " who will pitch better for the Orioles while keeping a seat warm for the next young pitcher to crack the rotation...Chris Benson or John Maine?" All evidence at the time of the trade said Benson was a better bet for the Orioles rotation than Maine was. Period. End of story. If you're looking at a(n approximately) two year window until the next youngster is up, and the "ace" of your staff is Rodrigo Lopez, you pick Benson over Maine (at the time the deal was made) every time! The Orioles got what they needed, and the Mets got lucky. S**t happens. Move on...or start wailing about how Toronto screwed us out of the couple of serviceable seasons they got out of Josh Towers!

[nadecir]

I'm saying Maine will turn into a pumpkin, and that I'd rather have last year's production from Benson than what the Orioles would have gotten from Maine considering their park, defense, and opposition.

Well, I think you wrong on preferring Benson's production over Maine's in 2006. Maine's ERA+ was much better than Benson's in 2006, and it does take into consideration ballpark and league factors. Factor in Maine's 2006 salary and contract status versus Benson's 2006 salary and it is a no brainer to me. Give me Maine over Benson in 2006 every time.

And we will have to see if Maine turns into a pumpkin. Even if he does he'll be a lot cheaper then some of the other "pumpkin" pitchers out there.

[Leitch]

Well, I think you wrong on preferring Benson's production over Maine's in 2006. Maine's ERA+ was much better than Benson's in 2006, and it does take into consideration ballpark and league factors. Factor in Maine's 2006 salary and contract status versus Benson's 2006 salary and it is a no brainer to me. Give me Maine over Benson in 2006 every time.

And we will have to see if Maine turns into a pumpkin. Even if he does he'll be a lot cheaper then some of the other "pumpkin" pitchers out there.

He was way ahead of his peripherals last year. It's a function of park, and the great Mets defense.

There's no way John Maine would have had a .225 BABIP with the Orioles defense, and there's no way his HR/9 is 1.5 or less in Camden Yards. While ERA+ adjusts for league, it probably doesn't adjust for the fact that Maine was 114th in Quality of Batters Faced among pitchers with 80+ innings. Of the six Oriole starters with 80+ innings pitched, none of them were out of the top 50, and the pitcher with the easiest ride on the Orioles was Cabrera at 42nd.

Put another way, take the consecutive shutouts of the Astros and the Cubs out of his record, and his ERA is a not so spectacular 4.37. Sure, that's not really something I generally like doing - it's not that the shutouts don't count or the blowouts don't count, and it certainly doesn't put Maine's performance on an even playing field with Benson's but it underscores the fact that Maine beat up on some of the game's worst offenses and that it's affected his record.

I don't care how cheap Maine was so long as Benson's cost wasn't prohibitive. Benson provided twice the innings and was better than Maine would have been. Bedard credits becoming Santana Lite in the second half to the changeup grip Benson taught him. And if we flipped Benson for talent this offseason, we would have come out smelling like roses in the deal, instead of looking like the suckers who took NYM's damaged, expensive goods for a 25 year old guy who didn't embarrass himself in the playoffs.

[Fan4Life]

Seems like a good comparison would be Benson's 2005 season vs. Maine's 2006 season. Pretty much the same club and same park and same opponents for the most part. The Mets defense might have even been better with Meintkewicz at 1B instead of Delgado. On the face of it, Maine looks like he comes out ahead to me, albeit in half as many innings.

All in hindsight of course.. obviously if he was showing us that kind of potential, he'd still be here. So with hindsight in mind, I'd take Maine but at the time, it looked good for us.

[Leitch]

Seems like a good comparison would be Benson's 2005 season vs. Maine's 2006 season. Pretty much the same club and same park and same opponents for the most part. The Mets defense might have even been better with Meintkewicz at 1B instead of Delgado. On the face of it, Maine looks like he comes out ahead to me, albeit in half as many innings.

Their PERAs were two points apart(Benson 4.84 and Maine 4.82). Maine really benefitted from allowing a super-low .225 BABIP and 6.9 H/9, whereas Benson had a more reasonable .269 BABIP and 8.83 H/9.

Really, Maine just wasn't as good as everyone thinks. And that's not accounting that his walk rate was better than anything he's done in the minors in the last 3 years both in terms of raw numbers and equivalent numbers.

[Tony-OH]

Their PERAs were two points apart(Benson 4.84 and Maine 4.82). Maine really benefitted from allowing a super-low .225 BABIP and 6.9 H/9, whereas Benson had a more reasonable .269 BABIP and 8.83 H/9.

Really, Maine just wasn't as good as everyone thinks. And that's not accounting that his walk rate was better than anything he's done in the minors in the last 3 years both in terms of raw numbers and equivalent numbers.

But, what was his eqaBABIP when taking his PRAA, PRAR and DERA into consideration? Surely one must be able to take his NRA and XIP into effect as well.

It's all crystal clear when you look at all the "facts".

[Leitch]

But, what was his eqaBABIP when taking his PRAA, PRAR and DERA into consideration? Surely one must be able to take his NRA and XIP into effect as well.

It's all crystal clear when you look at all the "facts".

Whatever, Maine likes to smell his own butt and I'll make up whatever stats I want to in order to prove he sucks.

[OldNewGuy]

One thing is sure. It is going to cost the 0's $18 million to replace John Maine!

[HoodGuy007]

PECOTA weighted mean EqERAs are 4.69 for Maine, 5.18 for Penn.

And Penn wasn't "just a horrible pitcher in 2006." He was a horrible pitcher for about two or three weeks in September. The rest of the year he was very good.

I actually found a new measure of variable. It's called the "John Maine is a whole hell of a lot older than Hayden Penn, and I think we proved that even though Jon Knott might have hit a little better than Nick in the minors, Nick is the better prospect because you can expect almost 4x as much production out of him" quotient.

John Maine was a nice guy, and stil is, but he needed a change of scenery. Good for him that he got it. Instead of playing the "piss-and-moan about how I was smarter than the Orioles front office" game, let's have Penn run his course. I think almost all of us know who will be the better pitcher.

[rolliefingers]

I know this has been said many times before, but never has it been more appropriate: I can't believe this thread has lasted this long! Especially considering that the gist of the original post turned out not to be true (or so the O's claim...no disrespect to the original poster).

[Sapper]

All in hindsight of course.. obviously if he was showing us that kind of potential, he'd still be here. So with hindsight in mind, I'd take Maine but at the time, it looked good for us.

Why does every fall back on the "hindsight" excuse? With almost every one of these stupid moves the Orioles make, there were people here saying that it was stupid AT THE TIME, not in hindsight.

[Sapper]

But, what was his eqaBABIP when taking his PRAA, PRAR and DERA into consideration? Surely one must be able to take his NRA and XIP into effect as well.

It's all crystal clear when you look at all the "facts".

That's why I don't pay much attention to the "statheads". You can find a stat to support just about any opinion. The fact of the matter is, although he may not repeat, Maine pitched tons better than Benson. And I go back and agree totally with nacedir. I would have traded a bag of balls for Benson, let alone a young pitcher.

[Moose Milligan]

That's why I don't pay much attention to the "statheads". You can find a stat to support just about any opinion. The fact of the matter is, although he may not repeat, Maine pitched tons better than Benson. And I go back and agree totally with nacedir. I would have traded a bag of balls for Benson, let alone a young pitcher.

I'm not a huge fan of the statheads either, I think it's a bit overblown...but to ignore them completely is...well, it's pretty ignorant.

Had Benson stayed healthy, this wouldn't even be an issue. Who was to know that his shoulder would break down and we'd all of a sudden wishing we'd have Maine instead?

I'm not thrilled about Wright and his inevitable breakdown and I feel like I have to go to the bathroom every time I think of Trachsel but it's what we have. Try to bear it.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's why I don't pay much attention to the "statheads". You can find a stat to support just about any opinion. The fact of the matter is, although he may not repeat, Maine pitched tons better than Benson. And I go back and agree totally with nacedir. I would have traded a bag of balls for Benson, let alone a young pitcher.

And I don't pay much attention to the willfully ignorant, so there.