Pedro Alvarez may be a fit

[Roll Tide]

From MLBTR:

Sounds like Dan. One year of a Boris client who is a lefthanded DH with power for some lower level minor leaguers. He is a free agent after the 2016 season.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlbtr-mailbag-offseason-trades-orioles-kendrick-howell-royals.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=alvarpe01&year=2014&t=b

Pedro Alvarez .....the "not much" says it all

[Yardball85]

Wow .... Yes to ODay

No to Dominic Brown (wow another quality .230 hitter) Pedro Alvarez (Ditto!!!)

Jamie Garcia .....what are you doing with hm ...not very many innings the last three years.

Rich Hill ...umm no , we already played that tune.

So Weams are your expectations for the teams offseason really this low?

This is my definition of Dumpster Diving!

Yup. I hope weams wasn't advocating for such an offseason, or saying that would be enough for him to be pleased. That offseason would be terrible on so many levels.

[weams]

Yup. I hope weams wasn't advocating for such an offseason, or saying that would be enough for him to be pleased. That offseason would be terrible on so many levels.

I figure that is close to 30 million spent.

[El Gordo]

I figure that is close to 30 million spent.

Or wasted.

[scOtt]

Change one letter and it's Demonic Brown.

[sportsfan8703]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pedro Alvarez had a 787 OPS last year. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> DHs were around 680, IIRC.</p>? Camden Depot (@CamdenDepot) <a href="

">October 27, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

But 787 equals to 684 in the AL East. Keep Davis, Pearce, and O'day. We do need two starters though. Just pay for Quality and if you're going to buy crap then buy it cheap. We should be looking at starters that were terrible this year that could bounce back next year. Like Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos, Brandon Morrow.

[DrungoHazewood]

Pedro Alvarez playing the field 100+ games while facing LHPers is, or has been, replacement level. It's plausible, even likely, that he would be more productive if you limit his role to what he can do. But if you're not careful you get the problem the 1998-2011 Orioles often had where they'd get a fine platoon player and due to a lack of organizational talent expand his role until he was useless. It's called "Pulling a Delmon."

[weams]

But 787 equals to 684 in the AL East.

Where do you get that wacky math from?

[Moose Milligan]

Ugh, just...ugh. It'd be so nice to have a farm system that was able to draft and develop good players so we didn't always have to worry so damn much about what we do in the offseason. I'd rather be stoked about bringing up 3-4 stud prospects instead of hand wringing about what we do in free agency, being disappointed at the results and then pissing away draft picks because our scouting and development sucks.

[DrungoHazewood]

But 787 equals to 684 in the AL East. Keep Davis, Pearce, and O'day. We do need two starters though. Just pay for Quality and if you're going to buy crap then buy it cheap. We should be looking at starters that were terrible this year that could bounce back next year. Like Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos, Brandon Morrow.

Curious as to where you get the 100 point translation penalty going from NL East to AL East. The NL scored fewer runs than the AL. The NL is a .470 league, but that doesn't equate to 100 points of OPS. Neil Walker and Brian McCann each had .756 OPSes. If 100 points was the real gap between them due to league/division then their wRC+ would be wildly different and in favor of McCann, but it's actually 108 to 105 in Walker's favor. The park effects between Pittsburgh and NY are bigger than the league effects.

[Can_of_corn]

Sign Heyward to a back loaded 10/180 M contract, Zimmerman to a back loaded 5/100 M deal and use what's left of the 43 M to sign Pearce and Jaso.

18 per isn't getting it done for Heyward. 22 might.

[Going Underground]

18 per isn't getting it done for Heyward. 22 might.

Probably a better chance at Justin Hayward. He is a little old but still likes to perform. Buck may like his want too attitude. I guess we are all living in a land of make believe.

[video=youtube;ih1PavfChLY]

[Creamsicle]

Replacement level is replacement level. I don't consider it "helping a team". It's just existing.

Sorry to nitpick, but for me "replacement level" is indeed helping a team in cases where it constitutes an upgrade over existing below-replacement-level guys.

[25 Nuggets]

Sorry to nitpick, but for me "replacement level" is indeed helping a team in cases where it constitutes an upgrade over existing below-replacement-level guys.

Very true. There are a lot of players every year worth negative wins and if you can avoid them, that will help your team. Look at number of players with negative wins (-0.1 or worse) on the Orioles the past five years:

2015 - 16 players (81-81)

2014 - 10 players (96-66) - AL East title

2013 - 19 players (85-77) - a lot of (-0.1) players

2012 - 15 players (93-69) - way outperformed pythag

2011 - 21 players (69-93) - collective 5.2 pWAR from the pitching staff

It's worth noting that a lot of negative win players are cup-of-coffee types with a -0.1 score (or worse!). Even with the variation there's still a correlation here. You can with quality at the top and/or the bottom of the 25-man.

[DrungoHazewood]

Very true. There are a lot of players every year worth negative wins and if you can avoid them, that will help your team. Look at number of players with negative wins (-0.1 or worse) on the Orioles the past five years:

2015 - 16 players (81-81)

2014 - 10 players (96-66) - AL East title

2013 - 19 players (85-77) - a lot of (-0.1) players

2012 - 15 players (93-69) - way outperformed pythag

2011 - 21 players (69-93) - collective 5.2 pWAR from the pitching staff

It's worth noting that a lot of negative win players are cup-of-coffee types with a -0.1 score (or worse!). Even with the variation there's still a correlation here. You can with quality at the top and/or the bottom of the 25-man.

A lot of that is injury and performance luck. The idea that you can minimize or eliminate the below-replacement talent often ends up with just chasing your tail. You upgrade last year's underperforming part-timers and still end up with solid performers like Bud Norris and Delmon and Flaherty giving you sub-zero-win performances. Or you end up dumping guys having bad years and some other team catches their rebound. Having said that, some of this comes down to depth, and Duquette is quite adept at getting small contributions from part-time players that often resulted in black holes in the 2011-prior era.