If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“Behind Bren Spillane?”    THE Bren Spillane?    Translation: who????

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=spilla000bre

Oh, THAT Bren Spillane?    Well, there’s a total buzzkill.

I could have said ahead of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, and Alex Bregman. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

That's why college stats aren't everything and track record is important. FWIW, Rutschman and Spillane's K/BB rates are pretty much flipped. 

I was just having a little fun.   Obviously stats from the Pac-12 carry more weight than stats from wherever University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign plays.    

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

I was just having a little fun.   Obviously stats from the Pac-12 carry more weight than stats from wherever University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign plays.    

That's the real Illinois, aka the BIG 10, which isn't the baseball conference that the Pac12 is, but it's not a no talent conference. Spillane has big raw power, but a ton of swing and miss. Is also a defensive liability, which is why he went in the 3rd round despite an amazing statistical performance.

[eddie83]

10 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Looks like it is the SEC Network

That explains it. I guess they can’t tie LeBron into the SEC Network.  

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's the real Illinois, aka the BIG 10, which isn't the baseball conference that the Pac12 is, but it's not a no talent conference. Spillane has big raw power, but a ton of swing and miss. Is also a defensive liability, which is why he went in the 3rd round despite an amazing statistical performance.

Shame on me for not knowing that was the Big “10” school.    Still, according to one list I’ve found, the Pac-12 is the no. 2 conference this year, compared to the Big “10” which is 9th.   http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/confisr.html.  I don’t know where the Big “10” was ranked while Spillane was playing at Illinois.    

Obviously the other factors you mentioned are very important too.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Shame on me for not knowing that was the Big “10” school.    Still, according to one list I’ve found, the Pac-12 is the no. 2 conference this year, compared to the Big “10” which is 9th.   http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/confisr.html.  I don’t know where the Big “10” was ranked while Spillane was playing at Illinois.    

Obviously the other factors you mentioned are very important too.

SEC, Pac12, ACC, BIG 12, AAC, CUSA, Big West, then BIG 10 by my estimation as far a draft-worthy talent off the top of my head. The Big 10 doesn't have many premium draft prospects but does have a good depth of draft-able players.

[WalkWithElias]

44 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Strasburg has had some very good WAR years in baseball and never posted a negative WAR.

I think he would have meet the hype, if not for TJ. IMO

Strasburg has the 14th highest WAR for a #1 overall pick and the second most of any active player, behind David Price. He should easily move into the Top 10 in the next 3 seasons. Baseball Reference List

I'm a little surprised there are only 3 hall of famers who have been taken with the top pick. A-Rod is by far the most WAR, but he's not in the hall and we'll see what happens there. Then Chipper and Griffey Jr. .... then Baines. 

Looking through that list, it makes you reassess the absolute demand and expectation that the #1 overall pick be a franchise defining player. Among the most successful #1s of all time, we see such luminaries as BJ Surhoff, Rick Monday, and the incomparable Darin Erstad.

It's been 2 decades, and our last #1 overall pick Ben McDonald is the 21st most successful player to be taken at the top of the draft and most would say he didn't meet the hype. 

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Strasburg has the 14th highest WAR for a #1 overall pick and the second most of any active player, behind David Price. He should easily move into the Top 10 in the next 3 seasons. Baseball Reference List

I'm a little surprised there are only 3 hall of famers who have been taken with the top pick. A-Rod is by far the most WAR, but he's not in the hall and we'll see what happens there. Then Chipper and Griffey Jr. .... then Baines. 

Looking through that list, it makes you reassess the absolute demand and expectation that the #1 overall pick be a franchise defining player. Among the most successful #1s of all time, we see such luminaries as BJ Surhoff, Rick Monday, and the incomparable Darin Erstad.

It's been 2 decades, and our last #1 overall pick Ben McDonald is the 21st most successful player to be taken at the top of the draft and most would say he didn't meet the hype. 

McDonald was ruined by his college manager winning the college WS. He was lights out dominating pitcher as there was in college.

He had a decent pro career. Always wondered if a real deal McDonald as 2nd TOR behind Mussina would have been dynamite and deadly duo.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Strasburg has the 14th highest WAR for a #1 overall pick and the second most of any active player, behind David Price. He should easily move into the Top 10 in the next 3 seasons. Baseball Reference List

I'm a little surprised there are only 3 hall of famers who have been taken with the top pick. A-Rod is by far the most WAR, but he's not in the hall and we'll see what happens there. Then Chipper and Griffey Jr. .... then Baines. 

Looking through that list, it makes you reassess the absolute demand and expectation that the #1 overall pick be a franchise defining player. Among the most successful #1s of all time, we see such luminaries as BJ Surhoff, Rick Monday, and the incomparable Darin Erstad.

It's been 2 decades, and our last #1 overall pick Ben McDonald is the 21st most successful player to be taken at the top of the draft and most would say he didn't meet the hype. 

I’ve made this point many times.    It’s simply not that easy to pick out the guy who will end up being the most productive player in the draft class.    If you pick a guy who has a ten-year career and makes a few all-star teams, be happy with what you got and don’t sweat it that someone picked later turned out to be the Hall of Famer in his class.   

[WalkWithElias]

12 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

McDonald was ruined by his college manager winning the college WS. He was lights out dominating pitcher as there was in college.

He had a decent pro career. Always wondered if a real deal McDonald as 2nd TOR behind Mussina would have been dynamite and deadly duo.

Possibly.

My point is that you never want to miss on the #1 pick, but the vast majority of them don't pan out and very few ever reach expectation.

Franchise defining #1s are as follows: A-Rod, Chipper Jones, Griffey, Mauer, Harper. 

#1s who had very good careers who I'd say "panned out" for the team that picked them: David Price, Harold Baines, Darryl Strawberry, Justin Upton

#1s who had big seasons eventually for someone else: Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton,

#1s who were guys in the majors: Andy Benes, BJ Surhoff, Darin Erstad

Carlos Correa is still early in his career. Gerit Cole eventually found success and looks like he'll get a big free agent deal. 

The player we pick #1 (who I hope is Rutschman, but if not I won't lose my mind) will hopefully at least fit into the second list of guys who panned out. But if they don't (which is fairly likely), the team can still build a strong farm system with other selections, trades, international signings, player development. 

1 pick does not define a front office. 

[Jammer7]

8 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

McDonald was ruined by his college manager winning the college WS. He was lights out dominating pitcher as there was in college.

He had a decent pro career. Always wondered if a real deal McDonald as 2nd TOR behind Mussina would have been dynamite and deadly duo.

Ben was the clear #1 talent that year. As bad as LSU was for overusing him, the Orioles did not help him develop much either. Maybe he was too immature to grasp some things then. Too busy wrastlin’ gators and all. But physically, ridiculously talented. 

Mussina was very advanced and cerebral before he came to Baltimore. Him leaving via free agency really ticked me off, but I don’t blame him. The Orioles were in complete disarray. So happy for Mike getting into HOF!

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Possibly.

My point is that you never want to miss on the #1 pick, but the vast majority of them don't pan out and very few ever reach expectation.

 

Which is why throwing away an entire season by tanking is such a bad idea. Not that I believe this team tanked, they just sucked.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

Ben was the clear #1 talent that year. As bad as LSU was for overusing him, the Orioles did not help him develop much either. Maybe he was too immature to grasp some things then. Too busy wrastlin’ gators and all. But physically, ridiculously talented. 

Mussina was very advanced and cerebral before he came to Baltimore. Him leaving via free agency really ticked me off, but I don’t blame him. The Orioles were in complete disarray. So happy for Mike getting into HOF!

Mussina was known to come up with new pitches during the middle of the game, when he was having trouble with his normal stuff.

[LookinUp]

Anyone know if the college balls are considered to be also be "juiced" this year? How about the minor league balls? Is this all speculation?

[WalkWithElias]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Which is why throwing away an entire season by tanking is such a bad idea. Not that I believe this team tanked, they just sucked.

It's not about just the #1 pick. It's about having a very high pick in each and every round with a big bonus pool to be able to get as many chances as possible. If the Marlins manage to out-suck the Orioles this summer and we have the #2 pick next year, we'll still have just as good a chance at re-stocking the farm.