The Davis/Elias meeting

[interloper]

I think this deserves its own thread because I'm seeing a lot of folks in a lot of different threads still thinking/hoping Davis will be released following this season.

Folks - it ain't happening.

Quote

“It’s a different role, but it’s something that I’ve embraced and he’s been good about being up front with me and being honest. And that’s all that I’ve asked,” Davis said this afternoon.

“Mike (Elias, Orioles executive vice president/general manager) and I sat down several weeks ago and kind of went over a program that we both thought was going to be beneficial not only for me, but the Orioles and my teammates as well. I’ve enjoyed being around the guys and getting a chance to kind of coach and teach. Something that I didn’t really expect to do at this point in my career. But just like last night, we had a chance to maybe get a backdoor out with two outs and a guy at second base.

Not only that, Elias has eluded to constructing a new offseason plan for Davis and has been quoted as saying he's "absolutely" committed to keeping him for now. 

The best case scenario for folks hoping Davis gets released is spring training of 2020 when it's clear that any offseason changes didn't work. But even then, a handful of ST ABs tells you basically nothing, and it's more likely he'll get a half-season's worth of ABs to see where he's at. 

Look, I know, it sucks. But it's time to face the facts that while Elias has full control of rebuilding the organization from the ground up (which he has made startlingly quick progress of doing this season), the ownership does not want to cut bait on Davis just yet. It just is what it is. Davis is a bizarre special case, and as I've been saying for more than a year, and other articles have pointed out, cutting a player with this much salary left is unprecedented in the game. There are similar cases, yes, but nothing that matches up quite to this level. Does that excuse it from not happening? No, not really. But it's a complicated ownership thing that really doesn't have much to do with Elias right now. 

Davis gets another half season, at least. Especially with the 26th man next season. Then? Who knows. But this saga is not yet over. 

[DirtyBird]

Do you think he would say, "yeah Elias told me I won't be back next season", even if that was the case?

[Philip]

How much of that was complete sincerity, and how much of that was just claptrap to soothe the masses Until he gets cut on November 5 or whatever?

Mike appears to be a reasonably straight shooter, but everything everybody says: the money already being spent, the roster spot being wasted, Davis being useless as well as being a distraction and a bad signal To everyone, is all true, and Elias knows better than anybody else that there is no reason to keep him, so I wonder if his comments were just window dressing, I have not read the interview so I have no idea so what do you think?

[Frobby]

I agree these quotes mean Davis won’t be released this offseason.   I didn’t expect he would be, once he made it through the season without being released.    Might as well give him a full offseason following whatever plan Elias & co. have in mind for him, and see how he looks next spring.   

I disagree with the statement that he’s sure to make the club if he makes it to spring training because the spring won’t be enough time to evaluate him.    Spring isn’t just about statistics.    It’s about whether he’s regained any bat speed, whether he’s got better pitch recognition, etc.   To me, the burden of proof will be on Davis, not the other way around.   But we’ll see what happens.   

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Frobby said:

It’s about whether he’s regained any bat speed, whether he’s got better pitch recognition, etc.   To me, the burden of proof will be on Davis, not the other way around.   But we’ll see what happens.   

Are there any examples of a 34 year old improving bat speed and pitch recognition after 4 years of those qualities declining?

[7Mo]

14 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Are there any examples of a 34 year old improving bat speed and pitch recognition after 4 years of those qualities declining?

It's possible that it's not a case of how likely it is but a case of doing everything possible before pulling the plug. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think this deserves its own thread because I'm seeing a lot of folks in a lot of different threads still thinking/hoping Davis will be released following this season.

Folks - it ain't happening.

Not only that, Elias has eluded to constructing a new offseason plan for Davis and has been quoted as saying he's "absolutely" committed to keeping him for now. 

The best case scenario for folks hoping Davis gets released is spring training of 2020 when it's clear that any offseason changes didn't work. But even then, a handful of ST ABs tells you basically nothing, and it's more likely he'll get a half-season's worth of ABs to see where he's at. 

Look, I know, it sucks. But it's time to face the facts that while Elias has full control of rebuilding the organization from the ground up (which he has made startlingly quick progress of doing this season), the ownership does not want to cut bait on Davis just yet. It just is what it is. Davis is a bizarre special case, and as I've been saying for more than a year, and other articles have pointed out, cutting a player with this much salary left is unprecedented in the game. There are similar cases, yes, but nothing that matches up quite to this level. Does that excuse it from not happening? No, not really. But it's a complicated ownership thing that really doesn't have much to do with Elias right now. 

Davis gets another half season, at least. Especially with the 26th man next season. Then? Who knows. But this saga is not yet over. 

Translation is, at least my own opinion.

Ownership has told Elias, he can not jettison that fat contract.

So if he is stuck with it, why not try and see what he can get done in the off-season to get Davis back to somewhat respectability.

[foxfield]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree these quotes mean Davis won’t be released this offseason.   I didn’t expect he would be, once he made it through the season without being released.    Might as well give him a full offseason following whatever plan Elias & co. have in mind for him, and see how he looks next spring.   

I disagree with the statement that he’s sure to make the club if he makes it to spring training because the spring won’t be enough time to evaluate him.    Spring isn’t just about statistics.    It’s about whether he’s regained any bat speed, whether he’s got better pitch recognition, etc.   To me, the burden of proof will be on Davis, not the other way around.   But we’ll see what happens.   

Quotes from Davis?  Davis' quotes last year and the year before were not helpful. In fact he seemed to not recognize how bad he was.  He spoke of bad luck and just needing to keep doing what he knew he could do.  Almost as if he were trying to convince himself.  I don't disagree with you, and I think we have to trust Elias which ever way he goes.  But I don't put a whole lot of stock in the comments of Davis either way.

[hoosiers]

The BoSox cut Pedro Sandoval with 2.5 years and near $50M owed to the Panda.  At this point, I believe Davis is owed under $70M.  

I think it would be a mistake to lose out taking a Rule V prospect - one who this year was our major league starting shortstop - or causing us to lose a guy like Fenter to the Rule V draft.  Whether we have to pay out Davis when cutting him or whether we can pay him according to his contract terms even after releasing him, the interest cost that represents the difference in those two scenarios would like be in the $3+M range.  IMO, given the past three seasons, there is only a very small chance that Davis approaches even .5 - 1 WAR in production and he would likely continue as a negative WAR guy next year.  

I am glad to see the Os are treating Davis well despite the poor production and that Davis is enjoying being with his teammates in the capacity the organization has spoken to him about - part player, part coach.  But this capacity shouldn't last into next season, it shouldn't cause us to lose a prospect or lose out on a prospect (Rule V).  

[Flash- bd]

The organization is probably just praying he does something stupid off the field that allows them to void his contract. Only real hope. 

[accinfo]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree these quotes mean Davis won’t be released this offseason.   I didn’t expect he would be, once he made it through the season without being released.    Might as well give him a full offseason following whatever plan Elias & co. have in mind for him, and see how he looks next spring.   

I disagree with the statement that he’s sure to make the club if he makes it to spring training because the spring won’t be enough time to evaluate him.    Spring isn’t just about statistics.    It’s about whether he’s regained any bat speed, whether he’s got better pitch recognition, etc.   To me, the burden of proof will be on Davis, not the other way around.   But we’ll see what happens.   

I agree here 100%.  Once he got past August 1 it was obvious they weren't going to release him this year.  They are going to give it another off season.  Then I think they give him until around the time May 1st when someone like Mountcastle would be called up after his service time issues are gone.  What will be interesting to watch is how much different Chris Davis's off-season's approach is.  I guess he could change nothing and report to spring training and still collect his money.  What is the player's obligation to work  in the off season?  Stay in shape, etc? 

[Slappy]

18 minutes ago, accinfo said:

I agree here 100%.  Once he got past August 1 it was obvious they weren't going to release him this year.  They are going to give it another off season.  Then I think they give him until around the time May 1st when someone like Mountcastle would be called up after his service time issues are gone.  What will be interesting to watch is how much different Chris Davis's off-season's approach is.  I guess he could change nothing and report to spring training and still collect his money.  What is the player's obligation to work  in the off season?  Stay in shape, etc? 

Since all money is guaranteed in MLB, there isn't much incentive outside of trying to be the best they can be.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Are there any examples of a 34 year old improving bat speed and pitch recognition after 4 years of those qualities declining?

I can think of a number from the 1990-2010 timeframe who at least superficially fall into that category.  And if you take out the four year qualifier you could include guys like Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.

Not sure I can come up with an example of a 34-year-old reverting to peak form after 2000 PAs of a .197/.292/.381 performance.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Do you think he would say, "yeah Elias told me I won't be back next season", even if that was the case?

No, but I think he would say either nothing at all or at the very least wouldn't hold a 1-on-1 meeting with him about how to move forward. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

The BoSox cut Pedro Sandoval with 2.5 years and near $50M owed to the Panda.  At this point, I believe Davis is owed under $70M.  

I think it would be a mistake to lose out taking a Rule V prospect - one who this year was our major league starting shortstop - or causing us to lose a guy like Fenter to the Rule V draft.  Whether we have to pay out Davis when cutting him or whether we can pay him according to his contract terms even after releasing him, the interest cost that represents the difference in those two scenarios would like be in the $3+M range.  IMO, given the past three seasons, there is only a very small chance that Davis approaches even .5 - 1 WAR in production and he would likely continue as a negative WAR guy next year.  

I am glad to see the Os are treating Davis well despite the poor production and that Davis is enjoying being with his teammates in the capacity the organization has spoken to him about - part player, part coach.  But this capacity shouldn't last into next season, it shouldn't cause us to lose a prospect or lose out on a prospect (Rule V).  

I haven’t analyzed it, but I doubt we couldn’t get down to 38 players for the Rule 5 draft without losing a player to another team.    I can only recall one Orioles prospect who has been selected in the Rule 5 draft in the last 10 years — Steve Johnson, and he was returned to us by the Giants before spring training was over.     Our farm system is much improved but I doubt our 39th and 40th best players will get poached.