What can O's players show in 2020 that impacts the future?

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hey so, since you haven't been around in approximately 3,099 days, what are your general thoughts on the early days of the Elias era? Just curious where you stand on stuff, generally. 

I like Elias and the people he has brought in.  I haven’t loved everything he has done and feel he should have dealt guys sooner and used the payroll flexibility to “buy prospects”.  However, we still have one of the worst ownership groups in pro sports and that is going to hold him back imo.

As it stands, I think Elias is going to have to hit a lot (more than usual) on picks, trades, etc...because that family isn’t going to do what it takes to win.

[weams]

51 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hey so, since you haven't been around in approximately 3,099 days

Who's counting. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

Who's counting. 

I'm counting out time.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm counting out time.

Got the whole thing down by numbers.
All those numbers!

[HowAboutThat]

@wildcard

Scott has had plenty of chance to develop some control and hasn’t. I don’t know who is pushing him, but I would be happy to let somebody else have his spot.

I was down on Carroll,But if I remember correctly in March, he was doing quite well.

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, weams said:

Got the whole thing down by numbers.
All those numbers!

Give me guidence oh Lord I need that now.

[weams]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Give me guidence oh Lord I need that now.

The day of judgement's come,
And you can bet that I've been resting,
for this testing,
Digesting every word the experts say.

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

@wildcard

Scott has had plenty of chance to develop some control and hasn’t. I don’t know who is pushing him, but I would be happy to let somebody else have his spot.

I was down on Carroll,But if I remember correctly in March, he was doing quite well.

At 25, 26 and 27 Randy Johnson led the League in walks.

Scott was 25 last year.

[HowAboutThat]

I might as well put in my oar.

I would like some clarity in the outfield, where we have a lot of guys.

At the moment we have to assume that Trey’s going to be back next year and splitting time at DH/1B/LF with Mountcastle and Davis, Hays will be in center and Santander(?) in RF. But Nunez is also a DH in the best of all possible worlds, so whattaya do?

That leaves maybe a half dozen outfield potentials that need to be sifted through this season, for possibly two spots.

 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Nothing.  The sample size is too small.

60 games is not completely reliable, but I don’t consider it irrelevant.    I’ve been saying for years that I don’t pay too much attention to the stats until Memorial Day, which usually is a little short of 60 games.

That said, splits like BA against RHP aren’t very reliable after 60 games.    They’re not even that reliable over a full season.    And I do freely acknowledge that you can get some flukish results in a 60 game stretch.   

Edit: just reminded myself that HR rate, ISO, BB rate and K rate are about the only stats that really stabilize within 200 PA, which is roughly 60 games.    

 
 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

60 games is not completely reliable, but I don’t consider it irrelevant.    I’ve been saying for years that I don’t pay too much attention to the stats until Memorial Day, which usually is a little short of 60 games.

That said, splits like BA against RHP aren’t very reliable after 60 games.    They’re not even that reliable over a full season.    And I do freely acknowledge that you can get some flukish results in a 60 game stretch.   

Edit: just reminded myself that HR rate, ISO, BB rate and K rate are about the only stats that really stabilize within 200 PA, which is roughly 60 games.    

 
 

Let me put it another way.

If player X has a really nice 60 game stretch, will you feel confident in them going in 2021 that they can duplicate it?

 

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

60 games is not completely reliable, but I don’t consider it irrelevant.    I’ve been saying for years that I don’t pay too much attention to the stats until Memorial Day, which usually is a little short of 60 games.

That said, splits like BA against RHP aren’t very reliable after 60 games.    They’re not even that reliable over a full season.    And I do freely acknowledge that you can get some flukish results in a 60 game stretch.   

Edit: just reminded myself that HR rate, ISO, BB rate and K rate are about the only stats that really stabilize within 200 PA, which is roughly 60 games.    

 
 

I don't think the 2020 performs will stand on there own but can combined with the past to add to the story.   

If Alberto does not hit righties well in 2020 it adds to the picture that is already there from 2019 and could affect how O's management look at him going forward.   Ruiz, Davis, Scott,  and other players will add to their story as well.

[foxfield]

23 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That doesn’t mean it has any meaning heading into 2021

It might.  IF you believe the O's they took Kjerstad #2 bc they believe he was about to explode.  Yes that is based on a small sample but it is a tremendous bet.  IF the Orioles use the large roster and no minor leagues to get some work out of higher prospects, it could have quite a bit of meaning...or none.  I guess, I am saying....it doesn't mean it doesnt.  

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, foxfield said:

It might.  IF you believe the O's they took Kjerstad #2 bc they believe he was about to explode.  Yes that is based on a small sample but it is a tremendous bet.  IF the Orioles use the large roster and no minor leagues to get some work out of higher prospects, it could have quite a bit of meaning...or none.  I guess, I am saying....it doesn't mean it doesnt.  

Drafting a player based off of that is different than thinking a player throws 30 successful innings can be penciled in to do very well in 2021.

Its 2 different thought processes that don’t really go together imo.

[foxfield]

It’s extrapolation of small data sets. IF decisions are made based on them, they can certainly be meaningful. Positive or negative...but meaningful.