Nunez DFA

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Just because a player is worth a certain amount of money according to WAR, doesn't mean teams are going to line up to pay a player that amount. A win is worth what, $8 or $9 million according to WAR? So according to that formula, Nunez is worth somewhere between $4 and $9 million.

But most teams don't pay players worth two wins or less anything near their market rate. Sure, there might be an exception or two, or someone might be worth two wins or less who's finishing out an expensive contract that was priced based on them being worth more wins than that.

Successful teams (without enormous budgets, and even then they still generally don't do this) pay free agent stars and superstars their market worth by WAR, and try to get the two win and under guys for dirt cheap to fill out the roster. This is what is meant by WAR not being linear. Guys like Renato Nunez aren't going to sign for anywhere from $4-$9 million, because it's not hard to stumble around in your farm system or on waivers and find guys for league minimum who have a good chance to be worth a similar amount.

All of MLB just passed on the opportunity to pay Nunez a $2-$3 million salary and control his rights for two more seasons after next for the cost of a waiver claim. I imagine if he signs with a team, it will be for less than that amount. You can talk until you're blue in the face about how the formula dictates he's worth that, but if no one is willing to pay a price because they can get the same thing for less money somewhere else, then it's asinine to insist that they should have paid him $2-$3 million

And come on. I don't think the Orioles are unique in their DH situation, and they've got a ton of corner outfielders and first basemen who need bats. We weren't the only team with "room" for him. Would they have kept him if they could have continued to pay him league minimum? Probably. What you're missing is that salary and production are two sides of the same coin. Yes, the Orioles cut Nunez because of money. Because his likely production was replaceable for less than $2-$3 million dollars

Of course no one is going to pay him 2+ million.  I would argue the Os didn’t need to either.

I would also argue that Nunez was worth more to the Os than other teams.  
 

The flaw in the arguments being made here are that you are looking at his worth around the league.  That’s completely irrelevant.  I’m not arguing that he’s a real valuable player.  I’m not arguing that teams are clamoring for him.  I never once said teams wanted him or he will be an easy trade candidate or anything remotely like that.  Everyone is completely misrepresenting that.

All I said was that his offensive production is worth that money for this team.  We have a boatload of question marks and very few answers to those questions and for that tiny amount of money, it was worth keeping him around.

The Os are, unquestionably, being cheap.  This is definitely a money thing and it shouldn’t be.  This is a team that less than 5 years ago spent 160M on payroll and now they may not spend 60M.  

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course no one is going to pay him 2+ million.  I would argue the Os didn’t need to either.

I would also argue that Nunez was worth more to the Os than other teams.  
 

The flaw in the arguments being made here are that you are looking at his worth around the league.  That’s completely irrelevant.  I’m not arguing that he’s a real valuable player.  I’m not arguing that teams are clamoring for him.  I never once said teams wanted him or he will be an easy trade candidate or anything remotely like that.  Everyone is completely misrepresenting that.

All I said was that his offensive production is worth that money for this team.  We have a boatload of question marks and very few answers to those questions and for that tiny amount of money, it was worth keeping him around.

The Os are, unquestionably, being cheap.  This is definitely a money thing and it shouldn’t be.  This is a team that less than 5 years ago spent 160M on payroll and now they may not spend 60M.  

If no one is going to pay him 2+ million than he isn't worth 2+ million.

 

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course no one is going to pay him 2+ million.  I would argue the Os didn’t need to either.

I would also argue that Nunez was worth more to the Os than other teams.  
 

The flaw in the arguments being made here are that you are looking at his worth around the league.  That’s completely irrelevant.  I’m not arguing that he’s a real valuable player.  I’m not arguing that teams are clamoring for him.  I never once said teams wanted him or he will be an easy trade candidate or anything remotely like that.  Everyone is completely misrepresenting that.

All I said was that his offensive production is worth that money for this team.  We have a boatload of question marks and very few answers to those questions and for that tiny amount of money, it was worth keeping him around.

The Os are, unquestionably, being cheap.  This is definitely a money thing and it shouldn’t be.  This is a team that less than 5 years ago spent 160M on payroll and now they may not spend 60M.  

Here the guys that will play DH for the O's this year: (6) Mancini, Mountcastle,  Hays, Santander, Diaz and maybe Iglesias. All need at bats.  All are more valuable than Nunez.   Plus the O's have Stewart who is cheaper and if the other 6 are healthy may be in AAA.   

There is no place for Nunez to get enough at bats to be productive with those players on the roster.

[sportsfan8703]

Is the NL keeping the DH long term?  Will there be expanded rosters next year and beyond?  Nunez offers no versatility. 
 

The NL DH would help Nunez, but expanded rosters hurt him. Teams can piece together his offensive production with platoons. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

Here the guys that will play DH for the O's this year: (6) Mancini, Mountcastle,  Hays, Santander, Diaz and maybe Iglesias. All need at bats.  All are more valuable than Nunez.   Plus the O's have Stewart who is cheaper and if the other 6 are healthy may be in AAA.   

There is no place for Nunez to get enough at bats to be production with those players on the roster.

This doesn’t make sense.

DH is a full time position.  None of those guys will be a full time DH until Diaz is here and even then, injuries could still make none of a full time DH.  Just because a spot start here and there could occur isn’t even something to mention.

If you are arguing that these guys are all so much more valuable than Nunez, you are doing it because they are better in the field and on the bases...if you make one of them a full time DH, you take away a lot of that “extra value”.  At that point, you are then saying, who is the more valuable hitter.

Well, only Mountcastle and likely Mancini are better and more valuable hitters than Nunez.  Santander and Hays aren’t.  Iglesias maybe is but his career says he’s not.  We have no idea about Diaz yet.  
 

Diaz isn’t likely to be on the team for a while anyway.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is the NL keeping the DH long term?  Will there be expanded rosters next year and beyond?  Nunez offers no versatility. 
 

The NL DH would help Nunez, but expanded rosters hurt him. Teams can piece together his offensive production with platoons. 

And likely spend more money doing it.

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This doesn’t make sense.

DH is a full time position.  None of those guys will be a full time DH until Diaz is here and even then, injuries could still make none of a full time DH.  Just because a spot start here and there could occur isn’t even something to mention.

If you are arguing that these guys are all so much more valuable than Nunez, you are doing it because they are better in the field and on the bases...if you make one of them a full time DH, you take away a lot of that “extra value”.  At that point, you are then saying, who is the more valuable hitter.

Well, only Mountcastle and likely Mancini are better and more valuable hitters than Nunez.  Santander and Hays aren’t.  Iglesias maybe is but his career says he’s not.  We have no idea about Diaz yet.  
 

Diaz isn’t likely to be on the team for a while anyway.

2021 Orioles may not have one player that is a full time DH.  Most teams don't.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

2021 Orioles may no have one player that is a full time DH.  Most teams don't.

Very few teams in the National League have a full time DH.

[ChosenOne21]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

My quibble here is that the term “market rate” means what teams are willing to pay.    I’d say teams don’t pay these players their theoretical value.    But we mean the same thing.        
 

Yeah, theoretical value is what I meant. Thanks for clearing that up

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, only Mountcastle and likely Mancini are better and more valuable hitters than Nunez.  Santander and Hays aren’t.  

I think Santander and Hays eventually will both be better hitters than Nunez.    And maybe that’s the point — we want these guys getting as many at bats as possible.    The more experience they get now, the sooner they reach their peak performance.   

Now, do I think it’s a sure thing that they will eventually be better hitters than Nunez?    No.   Just more probable than not, IMO.
 

[TommyPickles]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Santander and Hays eventually will both be better hitters than Nunez.    And maybe that’s the point — we want these guys getting as many at bats as possible.    The more experience they get now, the sooner they reach their peak performance.   

Now, do I think it’s a sure thing that they will eventually be better hitters than Nunez?    No.   Just more probable than not, IMO.
 

Yea, I agree.  I hope for the best for Nunez. I hope he catches on somewhere else. But I'm not mad at this move.

Excited to watch Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, and Hays in 2021.

[Philip]

Regarding Nunez’ worth, it’s undeniable that he’s not worth his expected arbitration cost, or he would have been acquired by someone. Sorry. One can claim otherwise forever, but every team, including ours, refuted that claim.

But what about VALUE? If we could have kept Nunez for league minimum, would he have been worth keeping on the 40-man?

No.  As @Frobby pointed out, a one-tool 1.5 WAR guy isn’t necessarily as desirable as a 1.5 WAR multiple-tool guy. So money wasn’t the issue. It was a peripheral benefit of letting him go, but it was not the main motivation.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This doesn’t make sense.

DH is a full time position.  None of those guys will be a full time DH until Diaz is here and even then, injuries could still make none of a full time DH.  Just because a spot start here and there could occur isn’t even something to mention.

If you are arguing that these guys are all so much more valuable than Nunez, you are doing it because they are better in the field and on the bases...if you make one of them a full time DH, you take away a lot of that “extra value”.  At that point, you are then saying, who is the more valuable hitter.

Well, only Mountcastle and likely Mancini are better and more valuable hitters than Nunez.  Santander and Hays aren’t.  Iglesias maybe is but his career says he’s not.  We have no idea about Diaz yet.  
 

Diaz isn’t likely to be on the team for a while anyway.

DH is NOT a full-time position unless you’ve got Edgar Martinez on the roster. Rotating DH is for roster flexibility, resting a regular, playing a guy on a hot streak, easing back in after an illness, and so on. Devoting a roster spot to one guy who does nothing but hit is a foolish use of a spot, unless he’s a glorious, “proof there is a God” hitter. And Nunez isn’t. I looked up his offensive stats at Baseball savant. Of ten offensive categories, his percentile rank was above average in only two, and one of those just barely(xSLG was %55) his sprint speed was  fairly close at 43%, but in the other 7, he was 35% Or lower. That’s not Edgar territory.

By comparison, Nelson Cruz was horrible in sprint speed( no bunt singles for HIM) and K rate, but terrific in every other category... and he’s 40. He IS a, “Proof there is a God” hitter.

Man, Cruz is amazing. That was really one we let get away.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

As @Frobby pointed out, a one-tool 1.5 WAR guy isn’t necessarily as desirable as a 1.5 WAR multiple-tool guy. So money wasn’t the issue.

Just to be sure my point isn’t misconstrued, this depends on the needs of a particular team as well as what’s available in the market at a given time.  WAR already accounts for the relative value of offense vs. defense, and how much offense is typically available at a particular position.   So overall a 1.5 WAR DH is just as valuable as a 1.5 WAR multiple position player.   But not for every team and not at all times.

Looking around the AL, four teams had a .651 OPS or worse at DH.   You’d think a team like that could use a guy like Nunez.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think Santander and Hays eventually will both be better hitters than Nunez.    And maybe that’s the point — we want these guys getting as many at bats as possible.    The more experience they get now, the sooner they reach their peak performance.   

Now, do I think it’s a sure thing that they will eventually be better hitters than Nunez?    No.   Just more probable than not, IMO.
 

They get those at bats whether Nunez is here or not.

The presence of Nunez changes absolutely nothing about your post.

His presence only becomes an issue IF Diaz is up and IF everyone is producing and healthy.