Adley Rutschman 2021

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, singles are superior to walks.  You turn 10 walks into singles and you have probably produced more runs.

But, as you said, 300 is an arbitrary number.  I also think the ability to control the strike zone as a hitter is part of the "hit tool".

Fair enough.  And he'll probably be back to 300 in 3 days.

I'm just seeing a lot of unrealistic expectations for this guy.

He's not a better prospect than Wieters.  And everyone acts as if they'll be disappointed if he's only a little better than Wieters.  The only problem with Wieters' career here was the got injured at a very untimely point, and basically cost us two years of team control, and he missed his prime.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Fair enough.  And he'll probably be back to 300 in 3 days.

I'm just seeing a lot of unrealistic expectations for this guy.

He's not a better prospect than Wieters.  And everyone acts as if they'll be disappointed if he's only a little better than Wieters.  The only problem with Wieters' career here was the got injured at a very untimely point, and basically cost us two years of team control, and he missed his prime.

 

It doesn't get talked about much but I think the TJ surgery played a part in his quick decline.

And you don't have to worry about me having unrealistic expectations, my default is everything is disappointing.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If plate discipline is very distinct from the hit tool why isn't it listed as a separate skill?

Hit for power, hit for average, throw, run, field. 

Five tools.

It's certainly a more useful skill for a catcher than run is.

Yes, and notice that none of them are "walk" or even "plate discipline."  It simply wasn't considered one of those five skills.  Again, you seem to understand they're arbitrary, but you think that supports something it doesn't.

That isn't to sayd people didn't understand the concept.  I hate this misconception that Billy Beane or even Bill James was somehow revolutionary.

Branch Rickey: "The single greates difference between an amateur hitter and a professional hitter is understanding the strike zone."

That's in the 1930s.

It's importance has always been self evident, but it simply hasn't been conflated with "bat to ball skills"- meaning the ability to make contact, specifically meaningful contact.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Yes, and notice that none of them are "walk" or even "plate discipline."  It simply wasn't considered one of those five skills.  Again, you seem to understand they're arbitrary, but you think that supports something it doesn't.

That isn't to sayd people didn't understand the concept.  I hate this misconception that Billy Beane or even Bill James was somehow revolutionary.

Branch Rickey: "The single greates difference between an amateur hitter and a professional hitter is understanding the strike zone."

That's in the 1930s.

It's importance has always been self evident, but it simply hasn't been conflated with "bat to ball skills"- meaning the ability to make contact, specifically meaningful contact.

I think, in today's game, meaningful contact equates better with the hitter for power tool.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It doesn't get talked about much but I think the TJ surgery played a part in his quick decline.

And you don't have to worry about me having unrealistic expectations, my default is everything is disappointing.

I've almost been tempted to start a thread on Wieters' unfortunate injury.  It really seems to have colored his legacy- unfairly imo.

One intelligent poster suggested that Adley should probably put up a 930 ops; that would be acceptable.  Thankfully, somebody pointed out that would be 70 points higher than Posey's unbelievable, HOF-run.

When Adley's up here being Wieters with better on-base skills (there it is; it's just not one of the five) we should all be thrilled.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think, in today's game, meaningful contact equates better with the hitter for power tool.

That's poorly worded.  Frankly, hit for average is probably the best way to describe it.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If plate discipline is very distinct from the hit tool why isn't it listed as a separate skill?

Hit for power, hit for average, throw, run, field. 

Five tools.

It's certainly a more useful skill for a catcher than run is.

It’s kind of like saying there are four elements, earth, wind, fire and water.   We can break things down further than that.   

I think there’s clearly a difference between knowing when to swing and the ability to square up a ball you do swing at.   Both things contribute to batting average.  Some guys are great at hitting pitches in the zone but make a lot of outs swinging at pitches out of the zone.  Other guys are very selective but can’t always get their bat on pitches in the zone.   Generally if you are the latter type, pitchers will figure that out and challenge you in the zone more.   So, if it turns out Rutschman’s hit tool is just so-so (I doubt anyone will say it’s below average), he’s not going to walk at the prodigious rate he is now once he reaches the major leagues.   I do think it means he’ll have a high floor though.

 

[7Mo]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I think there’s clearly a difference between knowing when to swing and the ability to square up a ball you do swing at.   Both things contribute to batting average.  Some guys are great at hitting pitches in the zone but make a lot of outs swinging at pitches out of the zone.  Other guys are very selective but can’t always get their bat on pitches in the zone.   

 

Here's a good article on what Bowie is focusing on: 

“Our hitting department has done a really good job of taking the focus from swinging at pitches we can hit to only swinging at pitches that we can drive,” manager Buck Britton explained this week at Prince George’s Stadium. “Even if that leads to (with) two strikes striking out looking, we’re all about swing decisions. Making sure we’re swinging at pitches that are over the middle of the plate. Because we know as we go up, the umpiring gets better, and if you continue to swing at pitches and get your A swing off on pitches that you can drive, that translates in the big leagues. We are really stressing that, and guys have bought in.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/06/a-look-at-how-bowie-moved-to-the-top-of-its-league-in-offense.html

[joelala]

10 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Here's a good article on what Bowie is focusing on: 

“Our hitting department has done a really good job of taking the focus from swinging at pitches we can hit to only swinging at pitches that we can drive,” manager Buck Britton explained this week at Prince George’s Stadium. “Even if that leads to (with) two strikes striking out looking, we’re all about swing decisions. Making sure we’re swinging at pitches that are over the middle of the plate. Because we know as we go up, the umpiring gets better, and if you continue to swing at pitches and get your A swing off on pitches that you can drive, that translates in the big leagues. We are really stressing that, and guys have bought in.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/06/a-look-at-how-bowie-moved-to-the-top-of-its-league-in-offense.html

No shame in a backwards K anymore.  I think I dislike this philosophy.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, joelala said:

No shame in a backwards K anymore.  I think I dislike this philosophy.

I love it.  I think I read about it a few years ago with the Astros.

Why swing at a pitcher's pitch just because it's in the zone?  Make him throw three of them and even if he does the ump might miss one of them.

Oh he rolled over on that pitch and hit into a double play, but it's OK because the pitch was a strike. --Said no one, ever.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love it.  I think I read about it a few years ago with the Astros.

Why swing at a pitcher's pitch just because it's in the zone?  Make him throw three of them and even if he does the ump might miss one of them.

Oh he rolled over on that pitch and hit into a double play, but it's OK because the pitch was a strike. --Said no one, ever.

Somewhat similar to what Buck was stressing a few years ago. There’s a balance between only swinging at pitches you can drive and highlighting players with a skill set to put the ball in play, something those teams didn’t have.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love it.  I think I read about it a few years ago with the Astros.

Why swing at a pitcher's pitch just because it's in the zone?  Make him throw three of them and even if he does the ump might miss one of them.

Oh he rolled over on that pitch and hit into a double play, but it's OK because the pitch was a strike. --Said no one, ever.

Ted Williams was teaching this 50+ years ago.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ted Williams was teaching this 50+ years ago.   

That Ted Williams, he doesn't know much about hitting. --Said no one, ever.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That Ted Williams, he doesn't know much about hitting. --Said no one, ever.

Here’s a good article about it.   Williams actually said he learned it from Rogers Hornsby:

Williams understood that an important aspect of improving the odds of making good choices is the ability to distinguish between decisions within our circle of competence and those on the outside. If he waited for a pitch that was really in his sweet spot, he would get a hit 40% of the time. But if he was impatient and swung at something on the lower corners he would only get a hit 23-25% of the time.

Williams grasped that the way we make decisions — our decision process — matters.

The first step in baseball to getting a hit is to wait for a good pitch.

A good hitter can hit a pitch that is over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a questionable ball in a tough spot.

Only this isn’t Williams idea. It comes from baseball legend Rogers Hornsby, who told Williams that the single most important thing for a hitter was to get a good ball to hit.

This is how Williams came to carve the strike zone into 77 spaces, each the size of a baseball. Waiting for a good pitch required knowing which pitches offered him the highest odds of success and the patience and discipline necessary to wait for them. These factors would make the difference between a trip to the minors and the hall of fame.

https://fs.blog/2013/07/make-better-decisions/

A picture of Williams’ strike zone with the 77 baseballs appears in the article.  As a side note, look where the top of the strike zone is in that picture, compared to where they call the top of the strike zone today.  

[joelala]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love it.  I think I read about it a few years ago with the Astros.

Why swing at a pitcher's pitch just because it's in the zone?  Make him throw three of them and even if he does the ump might miss one of them.

Oh he rolled over on that pitch and hit into a double play, but it's OK because the pitch was a strike. --Said no one, ever.

True, that makes sense.