Buck Britton Will Be An Elite ML Manager

[interloper]

I like Britton, but the guy did have the best of the best of the O's system at Bowie, and he's got it again in Norfolk. That's not taking anything away from him - he still has to motivate and manage those players. But yeah. I agree it makes some sense to have him manage all those same guys in the big leagues, but that would really be a brutal thing to do to Hyde, who Elias has gone out of his way to praise and mention their collaboration, etc. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Disagree. Just because that’s all they were able to quantify doesn’t mean that’s all the difference. I mean just look at what happened to the Orioles when they went from Trembley to Buck. 

What he was talking about is in game strategy and decisions.  There is virtually no difference.

Off field stuff can’t be measured, which is why I said what I did about culture change and stuff like that.

But again, that’s not what is needed in Baltimore anymore.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Disagree. Just because that’s all they were able to quantify doesn’t mean that’s all the difference. I mean just look at what happened to the Orioles when they went from Trembley to Buck. 

It might be possible to quantify the impact of in-game decisions.  It is not possible to quantify what goes on in the clubhouse and behind the scenes.  

I’m also a firm believer that sometimes managers are a positive influence for a while, but after a while the team begins to tune them out.   Same person, different effect.   

Kevin Goldstein, who was writing for Fangraphs after a stint in the Astros’ front office, was a firm believer that a manager can have a very significant impact.   He’s a numbers guy but understood that some things can’t be quantified.  


 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Of the first few close games this season, do you think a better manager might have made better decisions that would have gotten us more wins?

[ChosenOne21]

50 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Disagree. Just because that’s all they were able to quantify doesn’t mean that’s all the difference. I mean just look at what happened to the Orioles when they went from Trembley to Buck. 

1.5 is an average. It's certainly possible for a manager to add more than 1.5 wins to a team compared to the guy he replaced. What I'd like to know is how many wins in 2011 you think are attributable to Buck Showalter and why you think that.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Of the first few close games this season, do you think a better manager might have made better decisions that would have gotten us more wins?

No and even if Hyde made a decision that hurt us in game 3 compared to another manager, he will make a different decision in game 67 that the manager wouldn’t make that will win us a game.

We just need actual major league talent.

[tntoriole]

Talent wins games … period.  Managers at best help each player to maximize their potential and understand their role. 
 

Earl was the best at getting this out of each person on the team but when he came back and had little talent, then he made no difference 

I could have managed the 1969-1970 Orioles and the outcome would have been the same 

Well …maybe I would have kicked the Mets butts.. lol 

[spiritof66]

I think Hyde has made a lot of poor in-game decisions, especially regarding the use of the pitching staff. I suspect that some of those have been driven by directions from Elias, or Hyde's interpretation of those directions, to test guys by using them in certain situations, and that others have been Hyde's own bad ideas. But there's no way to know, and even if you agree that Hyde has made more bad decisions than the norm (whatever that norm is) there's certainly no way to quantify their impact. Pretty small, I would think. A couple of games a year maybe? 

It certainly seems like the Orioles under Hyde have made far more than their share of poor decisions on the bases and in the field. But I don't know how to measure the number or cost of those decisions against an "average" number, or who is to blame if the Orioles have been well above average in the number of baserunning and fielding rocks. 

I used to think that the Orioles should have fired Hyde last year or in the off-season and replaced him with a proven winner or a young guy like Britton who they think would help build a winning attitude and make better decisions about the pitching staff. I guess I still think so, but Hyde is far, far down the list of factors separating the Orioles from being a good team.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It might be possible to quantify the impact of in-game decisions.  It is not possible to quantify what goes on in the clubhouse and behind the scenes.  

I’m also a firm believer that sometimes managers are a positive influence for a while, but after a while the team begins to tune them out.   Same person, different effect.   

Kevin Goldstein, who was writing for Fangraphs after a stint in the Astros’ front office, was a firm believer that a manager can have a very significant impact.   He’s a numbers guy but understood that some things can’t be quantified.  


 

Thank you. Such a terrific post. Spot on.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Of the first few close games this season, do you think a better manager might have made better decisions that would have gotten us more wins?

Nah, I highly doubt it. The moves people don't like (bullpen stuff, pinch hitting stuff) all involve pitchers who are highly untested or position players who are fringe MLers at best. I didn't like McKenna PHing for Chirinos, but do I think it's likely Chirinos would have come through against the back end of the Brewers bullpen? No I do not. 

[SteveA]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

Nah, I highly doubt it. The moves people don't like (bullpen stuff, pinch hitting stuff) all involve pitchers who are highly untested or position players who are fringe MLers at best. I didn't like McKenna PHing for Chirinos, but do I think it's likely Chirinos would have come through against the back end of the Brewers bullpen? No I do not. 

Yep.   I feel it was a wrong move too.   But it probably changed our odds of winning that game at that point from 11% to 9% or something like that.    Yet in people's minds, they remember they move they disagreed with and feel like it "cost us the game", or at least cou ld have.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Talent wins games … period.  Managers at best help each player to maximize their potential and understand their role. 
 

Earl was the best at getting this out of each person on the team but when he came back and had little talent, then he made no difference 

I could have managed the 1969-1970 Orioles and the outcome would have been the same 

Well …maybe I would have kicked the Mets butts.. lol 

Earl was the best because he was an early adopter of stats and analytics.  He was a matchup fanatic.  

Sure, he had great, talented teams but it's not like he was managing by the seat of his pants.

[Porky]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

It might be possible to quantify the impact of in-game decisions.  It is not possible to quantify what goes on in the clubhouse and behind the scenes.  

I’m also a firm believer that sometimes managers are a positive influence for a while, but after a while the team begins to tune them out.   Same person, different effect.   

Kevin Goldstein, who was writing for Fangraphs after a stint in the Astros’ front office, was a firm believer that a manager can have a very significant impact.   He’s a numbers guy but understood that some things can’t be quantified.  


 

Completely agree. Bobby Valentine's 2012 with the Red Sox is one extreme example of how much a manager can have an impact.

[RZNJ]

Buck Britton may become a very fine minor league manager one day but I've been amused as the Buck Britton bandwagon has gotten fully loaded over the last 2 years.   You can't tell if this guy will be any good until he manages a big league season.   I'm also not sure what benefits he brings compared to a guy like Hyde who has shown tons of patience and had very little to work with.    My assumption is that Brandon Hyde could be a good manager if he had some good talent to work with.   I'd actually like to see him stay as the talent starts coming up through the systme.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Buck Britton may become a very fine minor league manager one day but I've been amused as the Buck Britton bandwagon has gotten fully loaded over the last 2 years.   You can't tell if this guy will be any good until he manages a big league season.   I'm also not sure what benefits he brings compared to a guy like Hyde who has shown tons of patience and had very little to work with.    My assumption is that Brandon Hyde could be a good manager if he had some good talent to work with.   I'd actually like to see him stay as the talent starts coming up through the systme.

To be clear, I don’t dislike Hyde or disagree with your assessment, just think Britton will be special.