We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I would love to see the orioles take a pitcher, especially Porter. My guess is that a lot of the analytics devalue pitchers as compared to where more scout oriented teams have them.

That said, you need to have pitchers on your minor league teams

I mentioned before. The lower minors, Delmarva in particular, is being flooded with Dominican and Venezuelan pitchers and we sign a bunch of 18 and 19 yo pitchers who weren't developed enough as 16 to get signed at the time.  This is something the Astros have been very successful with. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The orioles can go up to about 17.7m if you include the 5% overspend 

Holiday deal is supposed to be over 8m, my guess is it takes about 6m to sign the three college players. So they’ve already spent about 14-14.5 of the draft pool. You take Porter in the third, and your draft is basically done. Might be more worth it to spread the remaining 3-3.5m out on a few 1m dollar guys (Especially given how risky pitching is) 

1M over slot to sign those 3 college guys?  I seriously doubt it.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, csgordos said:

Good morning. Been some time since posting. 
 

have to wonder if the “success” with pitchers like Watkins, Voth, Perez, etc has the analytics department think they can continue to take waiver players and max their value?   Take other teams higher round picks who are older, tweak them a little, trade them for competitive picks and then draft best player available.  

Related to that, I wonder if their system prioritizes hitters because they believe hitting talent is more predictable from amateur performance, but pitching talent more often requires the pro stats to identify. Particularly if they think they have a secret sauce in reclaiming and reworking guys based off statcast data.
 

If that’s the case, they’ll take pitchers they really like but will usually let other teams pay for the “research” phase. 

[seak05]

Pittsburgh was able to sign Bubba Chandler for 3m last year, because they went almost 2m underslot with their #1 overall pick. The Orioles aren’t getting that kind of saving with Holiday

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1M over slot to sign those 3 college guys?  I seriously doubt it.

I have no idea. I would think Beavers and Fabian are slot.  Wagner could be over.  I think Rhodes, in a similar situation was 600K over.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-mlb-draft-day-2-overview-and-schedule

[seak05]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1M over slot to sign those 3 college guys?  I seriously doubt it.

You’re right, I looked at wrong slots

So they’ve spent 13-13.5 mil and have 4-4.5 mil left

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I have no idea. I would think Beavers and Fabian are slot.  Wagner could be over.  I think Rhodes, in a similar situation was 600K over.

I could see something like that.  Wagner is the one guy.  Otoh, I don’t believe Haskin got over slot and he was also an early draftee.

Either way, it’s not going to take 6M to sign those 3.  Slot is about 5M.  I’m guessing somewhere in the 4.8-5.5 range to get them done.

[seak05]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I have no idea. I would think Beavers and Fabian are slot.  Wagner could be over.  I think Rhodes, in a similar situation was 600K over.

I think you might get a little under with Fabian, but pretty sure Wagner will be over slot. I think at this point in the draft the orioles are very close to at slot. They haven’t really saved to do a big overslot deal 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda have to wonder about how that seems to be a reoccurring issue for the team.

Maybe they need to work on their models predicting other teams actions?

You can’t know what other teams will do.  Clearly as a general rule, the O’s don’t value pitching prospects as highly as other teams relevant to hitting prospects.  If they don’t, they shouldn’t force a choice of a pitcher just because of what other teams do.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I think you might get a little under with Fabian, but pretty sure Wagner will be over slot. I think at this point in the draft the orioles are very close to at slot. They haven’t really saved to do a big overslot deal 

I agree.  They can do something with the next pick if they go underslot on most of the remaining top ten picks and use the 4.9% overage but I don't expect it.  I expect a college player whether it's pitcher or position.  My longshot is HS catcher, Adonys Guzman.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You can’t know what other teams will do.  Clearly as a general rule, the O’s don’t value pitching prospects as highly as other teams relevant to hitting prospects.  If they don’t, they shouldn’t force a choice of a pitcher just because of what other teams do.

It's a natural part of any draft process to have someone who you want picked ahead of you.  You can't trade up in baseball. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Maybe there are more Baumler and Mayo guys out there and they want 2 of them instead of 1.  We’ll see but the lack of overslots doesn’t make much sense to me.   

 

By now they should know that the odds are that if there are two more guys out there that they want, odds are both aren't going to fall to them later on.  IIRC they wanted to do that last year, I can't remember who the pitcher was (Bitsko?) but he was gone next time they were up.

Porter should be the pick here.  I mean, I don't know why they're implementing this strategy if it's to NOT select a guy like this.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

You can’t know what other teams will do.  Clearly as a general rule, the O’s don’t value pitching prospects as highly as other teams relevant to hitting prospects.  If they don’t, they shouldn’t force a choice of a pitcher just because of what other teams do.

You can sure as heck try and predict what they will do.

I also wasn't just talking about pitching.

For a group that is this tight lipped it seems telling that we keep hearing about how guys they were targeting got picked before they could select them.

[MurphDogg]

I would be happy if they took Porter because then I could ignore the rest of the draft, knowing that they were going to take mostly senior signs the rest of the way.