“Don’t be fooled by our low payroll”

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have always felt, and frequently stated, that the O’s would increase their payroll significantly once a competitive window opened.   It won’t be back over $100 mm in the next year or two, but eventually it will be.  And, I’d bet on it getting back over $150 mm at some point in this next competitive cycle.   But, Elias won’t be spending money just to spend it.  He’ll do it when he thinks it’s necessary and cost-efficient.  

Agreed.  I do think they'll increase payroll.  It won't all be year one.  My only tweak would be that I don't think he's looking at a 'competitive cycle' as we have in the past.  I really do like conveyor belt analogy about bringing in talent, developing/increasing the talent value, trading for more ML/prospect talent.  He'll have a payroll range to work within and the pipeline will have to keep stacking talent.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, most people understand the chances of a 100% home grown team are slim and none and actually want a chance to win.

Fair enough but from a position perspective he promised a pipeline and it appears we do have a pipeline.   I would be surprised if we signed a major FA positional player.  Not quite as surprised on a major FA pitcher.  

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  I do think they'll increase payroll.  It won't all be year one.  My only tweak would be that I don't think he's looking at a 'competitive cycle' as we have in the past.  I really do like conveyor belt analogy about bringing in talent, developing/increasing the talent value, trading for more ML/prospect talent.  He'll have a payroll range to work within and the pipeline will have to keep stacking talent.

It's a shame that the lead time is so long on the international talent.  16 year olds don't become productive major league players nearly as quickly those taken in the domestic draft.  And the hit or miss disparity seems to be higher, as well.

[geschinger]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Fair enough but from a position perspective he promised a pipeline and it appears we do have a pipeline.   I would be surprised if we signed a major FA positional player.  Not quite as surprised on a major FA pitcher.  

This is where I'm at.  It doesn't seem logical spend big on a 2B/SS/3B before seeing what we have with Henderson/Vavra/Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo/Norby.  I'd love to see a new 1B who has even a semblance of plate discipline but not sure that exists in this upcoming FA market.  

Ideally there is a quality FA pitcher that would be an option but I see the more likely time to add payroll in 2023 is the trade deadline where they have an idea what they have with the group of middle infielders mentioned above and some have enough value to acquire quality talent.

[DrungoHazewood]

58 minutes ago, owknows said:

 

I don't understand all these calls for FA addition.

Over the next couple years, This team will be hard pressed to add free agent talent that is better than what is already here or hovering just below the major league threshold.

infield.... Henderson, Westburg, Vavra, Mateo, Mountcastle, with at least Mayo, Norby, Holliday on the way

catcher... Rutschman, Handley

outfield... Mullins, Hays, Stowers, Cowser, Kjerstad, Haskins,

SP... Grayrod, Hall, Means, Wells, Johnson, McDermott, Baumann

Relief... already pretty damned good, and a lot of the SP's will end up here.

 

Who you adding to make that better?

The problem we're going to have is too much talent to manage... not too little.

Pitching.  Just expect that 40% of your pitchers will get hurt in any given year.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

“We have full ownership support to spend money when it makes sense.”  
 

-Mike Elias on high heat today being interviewed by Christopher Russo.

 

Other tidbits:

-Trading Mancini and Lopez was extremely difficult, but they needed to replenish lower levels.

-We have some amazing pitchers coming up that will surprise a lot of people. 
 

The man has done exactly what he said he would do from the very beginning.  No doubt in my mind they pony up for some premium players in the next couple of off-seasons.  

I wouldn’t trust that he will have the money to spend. 

[Yossarian]

If you can get a top end starting pitcher that is willing to come to Baltimorec as a free agent, you sign him immediately. 

Do we know that Means can return as a staff ace? I'm personally not so sure.  We need that guy that can get a World Series win when the lights are bright and the pressure is on. 

[deward]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I wouldn’t trust that he will have the money to spend. 

This.  I'll believe it when the press conference to introduce the new Oriole happens, not before.

[Yossarian]

Is Elias responsible for hiring all staff at all levels? Coaches, trainers, etc.?

I have enjoyed hearing quotes from pitchers that come into our system from elsewhere and rave about the analytics and instruction they get from our staff.  If this is all on Elias, that may be even more important than draft picks - the player development part of the equation.

[owknows]

34 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Pitching.  Just expect that 40% of your pitchers will get hurt in any given year.

If we add players, that would be the smart play... but as we've seen so far... they tend to chase value by adding lower level prospects rather than MLB ready players... at least in trades...

And I think the SP pitching depth already here is considerably deeper than I've stated.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, most people understand the chances of a 100% home grown team are slim and none and actually want a chance to win.

Yeah... that's a pretty common slogan... but it's just that... a slogan.

The chance of everything is pretty slim until someone does it.

And it reality... it won't be 100%... you're going to need to spackle holes..  but 90%.. and spackling with cheap joint compound... that that's the ticket.

[Moose Milligan]

I'd like to see them spend on pitching.  Get a good rotation piece or two plus G-Rod and Hall, Rutschman Year 2 plus Henderson, Cowser and the rest, could be a really good team very quickly.

[Roll Tide]

35 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

If you can get a top end starting pitcher that is willing to come to Baltimorec as a free agent, you sign him immediately. 

Do we know that Means can return as a staff ace? I'm personally not so sure.  We need that guy that can get a World Series win when the lights are bright and the pressure is on. 

He should be ready to be a pitcher 1 year after TJ at the start of the season. Historically it takes two seasons to be the more dominant version.

[mlrhode]

58 minutes ago, geschinger said:

This is where I'm at.  It doesn't seem logical spend big on a 2B/SS/3B before seeing what we have with Henderson/Vavra/Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo/Norby.  I'd love to see a new 1B who has even a semblance of plate discipline but not sure that exists in this upcoming FA market.  

Ideally there is a quality FA pitcher that would be an option but I see the more likely time to add payroll in 2023 is the trade deadline where they have an idea what they have with the group of middle infielders mentioned above and some have enough value to acquire quality talent.

Not saying they should but Josh Bell is a free agent and has decent plate discipline.

[oriolefan1035]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

 

I don't understand all these calls for FA addition.

Over the next couple years, This team will be hard pressed to add free agent talent that is better than what is already here or hovering just below the major league threshold.

infield.... Henderson, Westburg, Vavra, Mateo, Mountcastle, with at least Mayo, Norby, Holliday on the way

catcher... Rutschman, Handley

outfield... Mullins, Hays, Stowers, Cowser, Kjerstad, Haskins,

SP... Grayrod, Hall, Means, Wells, Johnson, McDermott, Baumann

Relief... already pretty damned good, and a lot of the SP's will end up here.

 

Who you adding to make that better?

The problem we're going to have is too much talent to manage... not too little.

Starting Pitching. Johnson, McDermott, and Baumann are unlikely to be solid rotation pieces next year, and may never be. I’d actually add Kremer and Watkins as SP options, but we also have the risk that Hall ends up a pen arm and Means isn’t ready until mid-season next year. A proven ace to put at the front of that rotation wouldn’t hurt…