Is Voth a "top" 6th starter for the 2023 AL?

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson and Wells have all earned a spot in the rotation and are ahead of Voth IMO.   Voth biggest problem last year was not going deep in games.  He made 17 starts and only went more than 5 innings 4 times.

That’s one way of looking at it.   In his last 11 starts he averaged 5 innings per start, only failing to complete 5 innings twice.  With Washington he was a reliever, topping out at two innings so he wasn’t stretched out when we got him.   I know we don’t have anyone who averaged 6 innings per start so probably the difference between Voth and the others is quite small.

Tyler Wells threw 103 innings in 23 starts. That’s less than 5 innings per start. Wells only went more than 5 innings in 6 of 23 starts.   

Edited January 24, 2023 by RZNJ

[nvpacchi]

I was digging through Eno Sarris's Stuff+ models for pitches, and I was floored to find out about Voth's slider.

He's only thrown it 80 times so far, but he just started ramping it up in August, and the pitch metrics are off the charts fori it.  Among pitches that have been thrown at least 50x, Voth's slider ranked 14th based on stuff!  That puts it in the same range as Ohtani's splitter, and slightly lower than Bautista's 4-seamer (side note both of Bautista's pitches are top 10).

If Voth is able to incorporate that slider with his above average fastball and curve, plus his good command, that can turn into a legit mid-rotation + kind of guy.  I absolutely take that chance on a guy making less than $2mil, with worst case being he still probably picks you up 1 WAR.

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

I was digging through Eno Sarris's Stuff+ models for pitches, and I was floored to find out about Voth's slider.

He's only thrown it 80 times so far, but he just started ramping it up in August, and the pitch metrics are off the charts fori it.  Among pitches that have been thrown at least 50x, Voth's slider ranked 14th based on stuff!  That puts it in the same range as Ohtani's splitter, and slightly lower than Bautista's 4-seamer (side note both of Bautista's pitches are top 10).

If Voth is able to incorporate that slider with his above average fastball and curve, plus his good command, that can turn into a legit mid-rotation + kind of guy.  I absolutely take that chance on a guy making less than $2mil, with worst case being he still probably picks you up 1 WAR.

[Moose Milligan]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's 7-14 record last year in April took care of that.   Grayson is too good not be be in the rotation to begin the season.

Yes, I think Grayson by himself would have put the Orioles in the win column for the month had he been up last April.

[sportsfan8703]

9 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

I was digging through Eno Sarris's Stuff+ models for pitches, and I was floored to find out about Voth's slider.

He's only thrown it 80 times so far, but he just started ramping it up in August, and the pitch metrics are off the charts fori it.  Among pitches that have been thrown at least 50x, Voth's slider ranked 14th based on stuff!  That puts it in the same range as Ohtani's splitter, and slightly lower than Bautista's 4-seamer (side note both of Bautista's pitches are top 10).

If Voth is able to incorporate that slider with his above average fastball and curve, plus his good command, that can turn into a legit mid-rotation + kind of guy.  I absolutely take that chance on a guy making less than $2mil, with worst case being he still probably picks you up 1 WAR.

Voth was literally a different pitcher overnight with us. I have faith. He also started working deeper in games as the season went on. 

[AnythingO's]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Voth was literally a different pitcher overnight with us. I have faith. He also started working deeper in games as the season went on. 

Do we have any way to know if he went to one of the Performance Pitching places this off season?

[Aristotelian]

If Voth repeats his 2022 he is a #3 starter, maybe better. Question is will he do that. I would bet on no in view of his career numbers, but maybe Holt is a genius.

If Holt is a genius, why wasn't he a genius in 2021 though? 

I really liked what I saw from Voth last year. Interesting approach throwing cutters and sliders in FB counts. That is very tough to do unless you have impeccable command.

 

[ChosenOne21]

23 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I like Voth, I'm hoping he continues to be a surprise for us this year after being a surprise last year.  3.04 ERA and a 3.96 FIP.  His strikeout rate is a little low, 7.8 but he's been as a high as 9.3 in his career. 3:1 k/bb ratio.

I know, I know, I know, his stuff isn't elite but whatever, not everyone can have G-Rod stuff.  If Voth can continue to do what he did last year, that's very valuable.  

Exactly this. The underlying numbers suggest there's a good chance he's a lot better than a 6th starter. He's not going to be an ace or anything, but if the 6th best starter on my team had a 3.96 FIP last year, I'd be ecstatic

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If Voth repeats his 2022 he is a #3 starter, maybe better. Question is will he do that. I would bet on no in view of his career numbers, but maybe Holt is a genius.

If Holt is a genius, why wasn't he a genius in 2021 though? 

I really liked what I saw from Voth last year. Interesting approach throwing cutters and sliders in FB counts. That is very tough to do unless you have impeccable command.

I don't think we can draw a direct line to Chris Holt, but many of us tend to forget that John Means was a middling prospect who suddenly was really good under the Elias regime in 2019. Add is Bautista, Wells, Tate, Bradish, Kremer and others, and they're starting to develop a track record of success. (though brief)

I'm not saying Voth will cement himself as a rotation fixture, but at this point I absolutely think it's possible.

[Just Regular]

I think with Voth the question is more scalability - the 2022 performance in BAL was good.    He was new to the league, had some novel attack patterns curated by the Orioles, largely outplayed the opponents.     So did Jim Traber.

All the world's Borgschultes and Fullers (and Adley Rutschmans when they aren't playing in the snow) are using the offseason in part to respond to the sweeper slider that helped a bunch of Arms last year.

[btdart20]

Giving Holt a pass on 2021 isn't the right word, but it's really hard to lay the 2021 results at his feet IMO.

Holt was promoted to the major league pitching coach in 2021.  Prior to that, he was in some type of hybrid minor league pitching coach role (more to set up the analytics side of the development program).  Then he missed some time in 2021 for personal reasons too.  And then the talent level in 2021 was questionable.  Some raw (Kremer), some in wrong roles (Lopez, Akin), an aging name hoping to extend his career (Harvey)... 

 

He seems very flexible in his problem solving:

Getting guys in the right roles - Lopez, Akin

Pitch mix - Lopez (SI)

New pitches - Means (CH), Voth (SL), Perez (SI), Tate (SL), Watkins (SL), Baker (CH) - and this obviously impacts the pitch mix too.  

"Trusting your stuff and throw to the heart of the plate" approach - Bautista, Bradish  

 

 

[NCRaven]

I'm a Voth sceptic.  Half a year's positive performance in 2022 vs. four and a half years of subpar performance with Washington doesn't fill me with confidence.  Hope yes, but not confidence.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I'm a Voth sceptic.  Half a year's positive performance in 2022 vs. four and a half years of subpar performance with Washington doesn't fill me with confidence.  Hope yes, but not confidence.

Yeah, track record means something.  Throw in the chatter about how the league will respond to the sweepy slider.  All of which is fare.  But I also think the sweeper is more about introducing a pitch and using it in a mix that just keeps the hitters a little off balance.  And that's why I'm more on the hopeful side of that barometer.  

[Number5]

Orioles and Voth avoided arbitration.  Met in the middle.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/orioles-austin-voth-avoid-arbitration-one-year-club-option.html

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, Number5 said:

Orioles and Voth avoided arbitration.  Met in the middle.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/orioles-austin-voth-avoid-arbitration-one-year-club-option.html

I thought the Orioles didn't do that?   Once they filed, I thought they went to arbitration.

(I know Means last year but that was a very unusual case with his arbitration hearing scheduled for the middle of the season and then the injury).