SBNATION: Why Ex-Oriole Bobby Grich will never make the HOF (+ why Jeter should not be first ballot)

[srock]

Well last year you had folks sending in ballots with just Morris on them. Maybe those guys will send in blank ones. Or someone boycotting the whole process over steroids.

Too many incompetent voters for anyone to be unanimous.

Another good reason it won't happen!

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[tettleton14]

Interesting take from a WAR expert. From Fangraphs: The Other Half of the Story About Derek Jeter?s Defense

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-half-of-the-story-about-derek-jeters-defense/

In case you haven?t been able to look ahead, this whole post is basically just going to call attention to Jeter?s Defense rating. Every player on FanGraphs gets a Fielding rating, and a Positional rating. Combine them and you get the Defense rating, which allows for a direct comparison of players across different positions. Most of the talk about Jeter has had to do with the Fielding rating. That paints an incomplete picture.

In the past 50 years, 507 different players have batted at least 5,000 times. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 487th place, around names like Jay Buhner, Michael Young and Bobby Bonilla. However, sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 57th place, around names like Cal Ripken, Rafael Furcal and Omar Vizquel. This is the positional adjustment, and Jeter gets major points for being a shortstop ? a position of considerable difficulty.

Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 252nd place. In other words, he?s right in the middle of the pack, near guys like Jeff Blauser, Andre Dawson and Willie McGee. He comes out at -1.5 runs on that scale. He?s ahead of John Olerud. He?s ahead of Mark Grace and Rickey Henderson and Moises Alou. Jeter has drawn the criticism that he?s cost his team runs by playing a lousy shortstop, but overall he?s still been a reasonably valuable defensive player. That?s just because of his reliability at a difficult position.

The numbers they have at Baseball-Reference like Jeter less, and if you use their numbers for those same 507 guys in the past 50 years, you find Jeter in 341st place. It?s a worse place, to be sure, but it?s certainly not a dreadful place. And Jeter?s right by names like Nick Markakis and Shannon Stewart. He?s ahead of Jeff Bagwell. And of course, we?re loyal to the numbers we have right here, so I look at these as a backup.

Let?s say you only want to know about the era during which we?ve had UZR. This stretches from 2002 to 2013, and during that span, 322 players have batted at least 2,500 times. Keep in mind this window ignores Jeter?s youngest years. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 280th place. Sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 50th place. Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 161st place. Again, right in the middle. His spreadsheet neighbors include Andrew McCutchen, Eric Byrnes and Ronnie Belliard. I feel like I?d just be repeating myself if I noted the significance of this. There?s a difference between criticizing Jeter as a defensive shortstop, and criticizing Jeter as a defensive player.

To the eyes, Jeter can be pretty convincingly OK. At least, that has to be the takeaway from so many Yankees fans insisting he?s been fine. Part of that is because Yankees fans haven?t been able to watch any other Yankees shortstops. Part of it is because his missed plays aren?t egregious. Part of it is because the bar for defensive shortstops is really high, and so even a weaker shortstop can look playable. And part of it is because Jeter has long been so athletic, because his position has demanded it, because his position has been among the most demanding. He?s looked like he belongs on the field. That?s mostly because he has.

I get that Derek Jeter is polarizing, and I get that it?s fun to criticize a player the media?s never stopped putting on a pedestal. It?s certainly worthwhile to note Jeter hasn?t been a great defensive shortstop. While he?ll have absolutely zero trouble getting into the Hall of Fame, defense still is important when it comes to our understanding of what he?s been as a player. Jeter has had his on-field shortcomings. But it?s also important to not get carried away. For his position, Jeter?s been one of the game?s worse defensive players. His position has included some of the very best defensive players in baseball. In terms of overall value, those about negate one another. In the end, the most correct opinion of Jeter?s defensive ability is, `Hey, he?s been all right.?

[El Gordo]

Someone won't vote for him. Someone from Boston or, hopefully Baltimore , won't vote for him just because he was a Yankee.

Or because he so bad in the field.

Or because when ARod was acquired he didn't move to 2b for the good of the team. (Remember, ARod was hands down the best SS and had yet to be vilified).

I Cal wasn't unanimous, it would be absurd for jeter to be.

Let the Mfy fans have a conniption, it will be better the sports media anyway.

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We'ill see how the deification progresses the over next 5 years. If you were to take a poll today I don't think anyone would admit to not voting for him. The only reason not to vote for him would be to call attention to themselves, and today they would be unanimously vilified.

[O'sLaw3087]

Shouldn't Jeter get some WAR credit for his post season stats? He has over 700 ABs and judging by his stats that should count for another 3-4 total WAR I'd think.

[Frobby]

We'ill see how the deification progresses the over next 5 years. If you were to take a poll today I don't think anyone would admit to not voting for him. The only reason not to vote for him would be to call attention to themselves, and today they would be unanimously vilified.

I don't see why someone who votes against Jeter would be any more vilified than someone who voted against Cal, or Greg Maddux, or others. There are plenty of baseball fans who don't love Derek Jeter. Probably more of them than for the other two players I mentioned.

[Frobby]

By the way, Mike Mussina 83 WAR, Derek Jeter 72. Just sayin'.

[DrungoHazewood]

Shouldn't Jeter get some WAR credit for his post season stats? He has over 700 ABs and judging by his stats that should count for another 3-4 total WAR I'd think.

Yes, probably. I know that some players (hell, in Jeter's case almost all players) don't get that opportunity. But it's true that he has another whole season's worth of games against really good teams in very high-leverage games that he played about as well as he did the regular season.

I think there's probably a better argument for double, triple, or more weighting postseason numbers than not counting them in career metrics.

[DrungoHazewood]

But I do think it is not completely irrational that if you had two players with essentially equivalent regular season individual qualifications, the one who played on perennially winning teams and did well in the postseason might get in to the Hall while the other did not.

If you could only induct one of Jeter or Grich, any objective observer would have to induct Jeter.

But one of the Hall's many flaws/features is that there is no limit to the number of players inducted. We don't have to make that choice.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well last year you had folks sending in ballots with just Morris on them. Maybe those guys will send in blank ones. Or someone boycotting the whole process over steroids.

Too many incompetent voters for anyone to be unanimous.

I don't want to completely absolve the Neanderthal writers that do stuff like that. But the Hall's system for voting allows idiocy. As far as I can tell the Hall's board of whatever designed it on a cocktail napkin in 1935 and haven't really changed the BBWAA part since.

They could hire some group that studies elections (or just Google it) and construct a voting system that eliminates or overwhelmingly marginalizes the impact of dumb voters. Since they seem unwilling to strip the dumb voters of their power and replace them with smarter folk.

[Frobby]

If you could only induct one of Jeter or Grich, any objective observer would have to induct Jeter.

Well I guess that excludes weams, then.

[weams]

By the way, Mike Mussina 83 WAR, Derek Jeter 72. Just sayin'.

I'd probably vote for Mike. Probably. I'm from up his way originally.

[weams]

Well I guess that excludes weams, then.

I never said Jeter could not be elected. Or that I would leave him out. I just say that Grich was a better player.

[weams]

Yes, probably. I know that some players (hell, in Jeter's case almost all players) don't get that opportunity. But it's true that he has another whole season's worth of games against really good teams in very high-leverage games that he played about as well as he did the regular season.

I think there's probably a better argument for double, triple, or more weighting postseason numbers than not counting them in career metrics.

I know. We could include spring training stats too. Not to say that playoff stats are not real. Just that they aren't. It's not Derek's fault that his team pays an average of 200 million a year to give him that privilege.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd probably vote for Mike. Probably. I'm from up his way originally.

To me there is a backlog that needs to be worked through.

Once those that I think deserve it more get in, I will look at Mike's case.

[weams]

To me there is a backlog that needs to be worked through.

Once those that I think deserve it more get in, I will look at Mike's case.

Mike's part of the state is decidedly not Oriole fan in nature. In fact, NY has crept down that way.

My uncle Lefty was a federal penitentiary guard. He was a big Cleveland fan and hated the Yankees. Great uncle. My grandfather was a Foreman at BoyArDee and could get the box tickets for Memorial Stadium. So, I went as a young kid. When we moved to York, 43 minutes from the stadium, I was really hooked. Plus those guys came up and played basketball, signed at banks, and brought Aaron and Mantle and DiMaggio to Sports Night. So you would see them around all the time. Brooks had his sporting goods store there and he would sign his book at the Bookland. I had a wonderful childhood.