Duquette - "We'll be active on the trade front." (Buyers)

[weams]

So who would you like to chase?

Whoever is a good value I guess. Whoever is leftover.

[weams]

I would add Gordon. But this highlights why the Orioles need to consider trading players in one of the best sellers markets in a long time.

Gordon is not likely to opt out without having good health.

How is it a sellers market for us unless we are trading Manny and Schoop? We are talking about this offseason at this point. Not the rental players.

[Ruzious]

No trading prospects for 1 year rentals this year. I'd rather be a seller, trade Hardy, and get a young SS so we don't have trouble affording Wieters. And if they can get something for Davis, do it.

[Going Underground]

No trading prospects for 1 year rentals this year. I'd rather be a seller, trade Hardy, and get a young SS so we don't have trouble affording Wieters. And if they can get something for Davis, do it.

Hardy is untradable with his contract and soon 10/5 status. Be interesting to see of the Markakis, Cruz and Hardy signings which one turns out the worst contract.

[Bird Dog]

Ride the season out and hope for the best.....don't we have about 52M coming off the books....please correct me if i'm wrong.

[VTech]

Ride the season out and hope for the best.....don't we have about 52M coming off the books....please correct me if i'm wrong.

Something along that number, but not 52M to spend. Arb raises and possible payroll decrease

[Bahama O's Fan]

If Dan says we will be active, does that mean we are doing nothing?

[Camden_yardbird]

Gordon is not likely to opt out without having good health.

How is it a sellers market for us unless we are trading Manny and Schoop? We are talking about this offseason at this point. Not the rental players.

My point is that in light of the fact that it is a very thin free agent class, at least as pertains to orioles needs and ability to sign, that they should probably consider trading away players at the deadline in a market where they are likely to get more for those players due to the fact that they are so few good players on the market. That way the Orioles can add talent to the organization, where they may not otherwise be able to do so in the off season.

[Orioles0615]

If Dan says we will be active' date=' does that mean we are doing nothing?[/quote']

Considering how every offseason he says we need guys who can get on base, the yes I think we will do nothing.

[Ruzious]

Hardy is untradable with his contract and soon 10/5 status. Be interesting to see of the Markakis, Cruz and Hardy signings which one turns out the worst contract.

Yeah, I thought the Cruz contract was the only reasonable contract of the 3, and I certainly haven't changed my view. Hardy's been a great asset, but how many SS's his age keep their range? None. And he's not that good a hitter. I think a lot of his value was for his durability moreso than him being an elite talent, and betting on an aging SS to be durable and keep up his level of play didn't make much sense, imo. Granted, Cruz is older, but he IS an elite talent at the top of his game and healthy. He's had injuries in the past, but those were things that weren't going to affect him going forward. It was Markakis that had an injury situation that could affect him going forward, and he still got a big contract. And while he's hit around .300, he's got no power, and his range in RF is gone. That was the oddest contract of the 3 - going to a rebuilding Atlanta team, but the Braves like players from Georgia, and that's where Nick was from.

[Redskins Rick]

Yeah, I thought the Cruz contract was the only reasonable contract of the 3, and I certainly haven't changed my view. Hardy's been a great asset, but how many SS's his age keep their range? None. And he's not that good a hitter. I think a lot of his value was for his durability moreso than him being an elite talent, and betting on an aging SS to be durable and keep up his level of play didn't make much sense, imo. Granted, Cruz is older, but he IS an elite talent at the top of his game and healthy. He's had injuries in the past, but those were things that weren't going to affect him going forward. It was Markakis that had an injury situation that could affect him going forward, and he still got a big contract. And while he's hit around .300, he's got no power, and his range in RF is gone. That was the oddest contract of the 3 - going to a rebuilding Atlanta team, but the Braves like players from Georgia, and that's where Nick was from.

Sorry, that last year added to Cruz, made that contract unreasonable.

[Stotle]

There will be few, if any, reasonable contracts handed out to established major league contributors. As always, there will be bargains available if 1) willing to wait out the market and roll the dice on a useful piece still being available, and 2) you're able to identify and utilize a profile type the market doesn't value highly.

I know of two teams that are "buyers" right now but are looking for long term pieces rather than rentals. If you want an impact piece this month it is likely (though not guarantied) you will have to overpay to get it.

[wildcard]

The O's do have the ability to take on future salary to help them in the 2nd half.

Jay Bruce may make some sense. He is owed about 5M this year and 12.5M next year with a option of 13M in 2017 or a 1M buyout.

He might have trouble passing the O's physical but it is not like they would be committing to 50M. The commit is closer to 18.5M to add a power bat to the lineup that would not be a rental.

The Reds have had Bruce on the market for a while according to reports.

[Frobby]

Yeah, I thought the Cruz contract was the only reasonable contract of the 3, and I certainly haven't changed my view. Hardy's been a great asset, but how many SS's his age keep their range? None. And he's not that good a hitter. I think a lot of his value was for his durability moreso than him being an elite talent, and betting on an aging SS to be durable and keep up his level of play didn't make much sense, imo.

When I looked at this last year, I found that shortstops lost very little range during ages 31-34.

Here are a couple of really good studies of how infield range and efficiency declines with age:

Camden Depot: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010...urves.html?m=1

Tom Tango: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-aging-curves/

Both studies show that range and/or efficiency declines pretty significantly between peak (age 27-28) and 32. In the Camden Depot study, SS defense declined about 1.4 wins in that period, and there wasn't enough data to reach conclusions about SS over age 32. In Tango's study, the rate of drop in range/efficiency actually slowed significantly between ages 32-34, dropping only about 7 plays (probably about half a win) during that three year stretch.

I have done some anectdotal looking at a number of shortstops who had high similarity ratings through age 30 (the two Alex Gonzalez's, Orlando Cabrera) and some elite guys (Ripken, Jeter, Tejada, Vizquel), and overall their defensive value held up very well through age 34.

My bottom line is that I don't expect Hardy to be as good at ages 32-34 (2015-17) as he was at ages 28-30 (the three years we've had him so far). But Hardy has been elite for those three years, and I think he's got 2-3 more years of being significantly above average and then he'll be average for a bit. He's been worth 11.2 rWAR (6.1 dWAR), 10.3 fWAR (27.2 UZR) in those three years. Put him down for 6-9 WAR from 2015-17 and pay him accordingly.

Looking at reality so far, Hardy's UZR/150 currently stands at 16.4, which is the highest of any year that he has been on the team and the highest in MLB for any shortstop who has played 400+ innings. He's made one error in 59 games. I'm perfectly happy with all aspects of his defense, and expect he will continue to be an above average defensive SS through 2017.

I am a bit worried about his offense. That is worth keeping an eye on. Hopefully he picks it up in the second half.

[Going Underground]

When I looked at this last year, I found that shortstops lost very little range during ages 31-34.

Looking at reality so far, Hardy's UZR/150 currently stands at 16.4, which is the highest of any year that he has been on the team and the highest in MLB for any shortstop who has played 400+ innings. He's made one error in 59 games. I'm perfectly happy with all aspects of his defense, and expect he will continue to be an above average defensive SS through 2017.

I am a bit worried about his offense. That is worth keeping an eye on. Hopefully he picks it up in the second half.

Hopefully,his offense does get better. I saw some people say trade Hardy. If you traded him now ,the other team would be on the hook for around $33,5 million. That is if the other team bought him out for 2018. I know he is steady in the infield but his hitting is in the bottom 10 for many categories with guys with 200 plate appearances.I don;t think if the Orioles were trading for a guy with his stats and contract,many people would be happy with the trade.