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Three Questions


ELMERO

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27 minutes ago, ELMERO said:

Am I allowed 3?  Well...

1. Are we comfortable with our catcher situation?

2. Which of the Rule 5 guys stays?

3. What do you think is going through Adam Jones' mind, concerning his current OF colleagues?

1. I am. I don't know about everybody else. I think Castillo will be decent. And I still think of Caleb as a solid backup C despite his horrible 2016, though he may be on thin ice if he keeps stinking it up this year.

2. If I had to guess, none? That'd be different than recent tradition but I think Rickard stays on the MLB roster and they sign a cheap Bourn/Jennings type guy.

3. At least Smith is better than Trumbo? 

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2 hours ago, ELMERO said:

Am I allowed 3?  Well...

1. Are we comfortable with our catcher situation?

2. Which of the Rule 5 guys stays?

3. What do you think is going through Adam Jones' mind, concerning his current OF colleagues?

1. Depends what happens with the backups. If Beef gets hurt, what happens? Joseph needs to hit and do better than last year, but he also has options, which would clog the minors. Pena has no options but is a bit of an unknown. If one of them is sent elsewhere and either Welington or the backup gets hurt...Then what?

2. Both. Santander will be stashed on the 60 day DL due to his shoulder surgery and will probably have "rehab" assignments until September, put on the roster then, and then really get a chance to improve for next season (coming from Advanced-A...) and Tavares will probably be kept due to attrition.

3. "Ah crap...I'm gonna have to cover foul line to foul line..."

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1. I am fine with Castillo, Joseph, Pena,  Perez, and Wynns until mid season when Sisco is ready.  It will be an adjustment for the pitchers but it was a move that needed to be made.

2. I think Tavarez has a good chance of staying as the 5th outfielder.   He may see quiet a bit of playing time as a defensive outfielder late in games.  Probably a good pinch runner also.   I think Santander is  on the DL until the first of July.   He will rehab in June.   Whether the O's can keep him depends on how the other outfielders are doing and how he hits and plays defense in his AA rehab.

3. Jones is probably looking forward to having Rickard back in one of the corners and is interested to see what Tavarez can do defensively.  He is probably interested in how both will do as leadoff hitters so he can move down in the batting order.

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9 hours ago, ELMERO said:

Am I allowed 3? 

Yes.    Now you have two left!

Ah, I'll be generous and answer all four.    As to the three remaining:

1.   Yes, though I think Castillo will be a step backwards defensively.   I expect Joesph to bounce back to .650ish OPS on offense and be a very solid backup.  

2.   I think it will be very hard for Tavares to stick, and that they'll park Santander on the DL and test him out after the ASB.

3.   I'm sure Jones longs for the days when he could count on Nick Markakis being in RF 155 games a year.    Hopefully things will be a little better in 2017 than they were in 2016.   

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Unless we pick up a solid FA OF who can back up Jones in CF, I'm very concerned about AJ breaking down.  He should not be playing more than 145 games per season in CF at this point.  He a couple days off per month at least.  It will be even worse if the team starts Rickard in AAA, because there will be effectively no credible backup CF on the 25 man.  

Unless we get a credible backup CF on the team or keep Rickard on the roster and actually start him at CF occasionally, expect Jones' stats to fall and/or a DL trip for him.  

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11 hours ago, ELMERO said:

Am I allowed 3?  Well...

1. Are we comfortable with our catcher situation?

2. Which of the Rule 5 guys stays?

3. What do you think is going through Adam Jones' mind, concerning his current OF colleagues?

1. Not comfortable with Joseph after last year;

2. None;

3. "I better run like hell"

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25 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Unless we pick up a solid FA OF who can back up Jones in CF, I'm very concerned about AJ breaking down.  He should not be playing more than 145 games per season in CF at this point.  He a couple days off per month at least.  It will be even worse if the team starts Rickard in AAA, because there will be effectively no credible backup CF on the 25 man.  

Unless we get a credible backup CF on the team or keep Rickard on the roster and actually start him at CF occasionally, expect Jones' stats to fall and/or a DL trip for him.  

Rickard isn't a credible backup CF. 

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10 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

Did you come to this conclusion from the 60 innings played in Center Field in 2016???

He started just 6 Games in Center with 4 CG in that position.

He rated very poorly defensively last year. If AJ goes down and we have to rely on Rickard in center, we're probably in trouble. 

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2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

He rated very poorly defensively last year. If AJ goes down and we have to rely on Rickard in center, we're probably in trouble. 

I prefer to allow a player to get more than 593 total innings in the field before I would pass judgement on them.  The margin for error in fielding stats based on such a limited amount of reps is skewing his baseline.  He also played all three outfield positions which is an adjustment in and of itself.  Bigger ball parks them MiLB, defensive positioning that the Orioles use, sporadic and incomplete data all skewed the end result.  I prefer to allow at least 1000 innings per position to get an idea of how he will be defensively.

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57 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

I prefer to allow a player to get more than 593 total innings in the field before I would pass judgement on them.  The margin for error in fielding stats based on such a limited amount of reps is skewing his baseline.  He also played all three outfield positions which is an adjustment in and of itself.  Bigger ball parks them MiLB, defensive positioning that the Orioles use, sporadic and incomplete data all skewed the end result.  I prefer to allow at least 1000 innings per position to get an idea of how he will be defensively.

May have skewed.  It is possible that the data from last year is proven over time.

Although I will say that Rickard has played a substantial amount of time in all three outfield positions in the minors and that I don't think positioning should be used as an excuse for poor play.

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1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

He rated very poorly defensively last year. If AJ goes down and we have to rely on Rickard in center, we're probably in trouble. 

I'll split the difference and say the jury is still out on whether Rickard can be a competent backup CF.  But I will say he's the bare minimum you need on your roster if you want to give Jones some rest.  Obviously Desmond Jennings or Austin Jackson would be a much better fit for that role.  

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