Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[UpstateNYfan]

It seems that his walk rate is a HUGE concern and not likely to improve. If this is a HUGE insurmountable challenge to any possible success in Baltimore, release him, do not protect him in the Rule 5. Move on, find another "broken" player in the minors to focus on. The team is soo loaded at the ML level, it's time to discard and let another organization deal with him.

[Ruzious]

10 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

It seems that his walk rate is a HUGE concern and not likely to improve. If this is a HUGE insurmountable challenge to any possible success in Baltimore, release him, do not protect him in the Rule 5. Move on, find another "broken" player in the minors to focus on. The team is soo loaded at the ML level, it's time to discard and let another organization deal with him.

Rochester Red Wings fan?  

[UpstateNYfan]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Rochester Red Wings fan?  

Back in the day!!!

[Ruzious]

16 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Back in the day!!!

I wasn't really going anywhere with that question, but I found something:  I'm sure you remember Enos Cabell - the long corner infielder.  Back a little ways ago - in 1972 - he had 29 walks in 590 plate appearances at Rochester.  That's not as bad as Mountcastle's rate this year, but Mountcastle's rate last year was better than Cabell's - at 26 in 428.  Enos had a 15 year MLB career - even after having roughly the same issue that Mountcastle has.  If Mountcastle has half that - with Baltimore, he'll likely be well worth the wait.  My crystal ball is a bit foggy with some wear and tear on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance he will.  

[brvn52]

TWO WALKS TONIGHT 

[UpstateNYfan]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I wasn't really going anywhere with that question, but I found something:  I'm sure you remember Enos Cabell - the long corner infielder.  Back a little ways ago - in 1972 - he had 29 walks in 590 plate appearances at Rochester.  That's not as bad as Mountcastle's rate this year, but Mountcastle's rate last year was better than Cabell's - at 26 in 428.  Enos had a 15 year MLB career - even after having roughly the same issue that Mountcastle has.  If Mountcastle has half that - with Baltimore, he'll likely be well worth the wait.  My crystal ball is a bit foggy with some wear and tear on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance he will.  

Thanks..Many focus on the negative too much IMO and want players without some flaws in their game. I remember Paul Blair commenting on how his hitting seem to get better from the minors. He commented that the lighting was so much better at the ML level. Mountcastle is young and still has had success at all levels, at least with the stick. 

[jabba72]

44 minutes ago, brvn52 said:

TWO WALKS TONIGHT 

Saw that. Also had a walk two games ago. Hopefully someone told him his "never walk" approach was not going to be successful going forward at the next level. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Saw that. Also had a walk two games ago. Hopefully someone told him his "never walk" approach was not going to be successful going forward at the next level. 

He’s had that speech before.    He’s never going to walk much.   Sometimes the pitches are nowhere near the strike zone and he’ll fall into one.     But not often.   

[sportsfan8703]

Does the SO/BB ratio really matter with all the current factors?  Small Stadium. Juiced baseballs. All the good SP is condensed onto one team. Our division is the weakest I can remember in terms of SP. In the AL, where are these SP that are going to baffle him?  On HOU, the NL, or retired.

With all that being said, I think Mountcastle’s power alone would carry him to an .800 OPS, and I’m worried about the lack of BB. I just don’t think it’s as big a factor as it was before this season. 

[Pheasants]

The purpose of walks is to get a good OBP.  His OBP at present would be second on the Orioles if he did the same in the majors.  Beyond that I have twice asked and never received an answer: Is Mountcastle expanding the strikezone and swinging at bad pitches, and thus pitchers know they don't have to throw strikes? Or is he swinging at every strike he sees and thus should be a bit more judicious about what he is likely to hit hard?  The former will cause a huge problem; the latter only against pitchers like Wells.  Or can he not catch up to fastballs or not hit sliders?  In those cases, I don't see how his average could be as high as it is because pitchers would know what to throw at him. I'd like to see some analysis of why he doesn't walk much.  If he knows the strikezone, I'm not worried.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Pheasants said:

The purpose of walks is to get a good OBP.  His OBP at present would be second on the Orioles if he did the same in the majors.  Beyond that I have twice asked and never received an answer: Is Mountcastle expanding the strikezone and swinging at bad pitches, and thus pitchers know they don't have to throw strikes? Or is he swinging at every strike he sees and thus should be a bit more judicious about what he is likely to hit hard?  The former will cause a huge problem; the latter only against pitchers like Wells.  Or can he not catch up to fastballs or not hit sliders?  In those cases, I don't see how his average could be as high as it is because pitchers would know what to throw at him. I'd like to see some analysis of why he doesn't walk much.  If he knows the strikezone, I'm not worried.

My guess is this is what he's doing. Swinging, and likely making contact, at a lot of pitches that aren't perfectly in his hot zone. I think that's what a lot of people mean by patience. It's true that they also don't want guys swinging at balls in the dirt, but more than that it's about being selective. Swinging at the pitches you want to hit, not just anything that can be called a strike (which includes many pitcher's pitches).

It's hard to imagine that changes unless/until he starts to fail because the pitching is just too good, his LD%, BABIP and like stats decline, and his overall numbers decline. AAA certainly doesn't seem to be an over match for his current approach.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Pheasants said:

The purpose of walks is to get a good OBP.  His OBP at present would be second on the Orioles if he did the same in the majors.  Beyond that I have twice asked and never received an answer: Is Mountcastle expanding the strikezone and swinging at bad pitches, and thus pitchers know they don't have to throw strikes? Or is he swinging at every strike he sees and thus should be a bit more judicious about what he is likely to hit hard?  The former will cause a huge problem; the latter only against pitchers like Wells.  Or can he not catch up to fastballs or not hit sliders?  In those cases, I don't see how his average could be as high as it is because pitchers would know what to throw at him. I'd like to see some analysis of why he doesn't walk much.  If he knows the strikezone, I'm not worried.

I think I've posted about this before, but it's an aggressive approach and just ok zone judgement. It's not poor zone judgement, but he's often behind in counts after fouling off the first two pitches and he's stuck behind in the count protecting. He doesn't take the close pitch like DJ Stewart, so he just battles and fouls off competitive pitches. He'll be fine, he'll walk more in the majors than he does now.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Pheasants said:

The purpose of walks is to get a good OBP.  His OBP at present would be second on the Orioles if he did the same in the majors.  Beyond that I have twice asked and never received an answer: Is Mountcastle expanding the strikezone and swinging at bad pitches, and thus pitchers know they don't have to throw strikes? Or is he swinging at every strike he sees and thus should be a bit more judicious about what he is likely to hit hard?  The former will cause a huge problem; the latter only against pitchers like Wells.  Or can he not catch up to fastballs or not hit sliders?  In those cases, I don't see how his average could be as high as it is because pitchers would know what to throw at him. I'd like to see some analysis of why he doesn't walk much.  If he knows the strikezone, I'm not worried.

If Mountcastle were in the majors, we’d have the data to answer that question.  But we don’t.   I don’t know if anyone who’s watched Mountcastle play a lot has any insight as to your question.   

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If Mountcastle were in the majors, we’d have the data to answer that question.  But we don’t.   I don’t know if anyone who’s watched Mountcastle play a lot has any insight as to your question.   

At this point I'd have to see him maintain a real hot streak through April or May of next year, and at Bowie, before I consider his profile changed.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

At this point I'd have to see him maintain a real hot streak through April or May of next year, and at Bowie, before I consider his profile changed.

You want to demote Mountcastle?