New Rosenthal column

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Question for everyone, especially those who are happy that they are still (essentially) tanking/trying not to win/whatever terminology you want to use…

If the Orioles become legit contenders in 2 or 3 years, do you think that will have happened because they tanked/went through a rebuild, etc…?

If the Orioles are legit contenders in 2 or 3 years, the Orioles rebuild will be considered a success.  If the contention is seemingly repeatable, it will be considered successful in epic proportions.  The question that is still unanswerable is what financial constraints are placed on the team if any.  

Question for you.  Who is happy they are losing?  I don't see those people...anywhere.  And you are the one that seems to have a terminology issue.  If the rebuild is over and the Orioles are not competitive...the GM should be fired.

[Just Regular]

12 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

But I would have liked to see us try to acquire some prospects that come along with salary dumps.

We always say this, but other than that one time Zaidi bought Will Wilson off the Angels for about $12.5M IIRC, I don't remember many transactions in this vein.   That's one thing that actually happened where I felt like Elias missed an opportunity on a ship that actually sailed, but with Jones, Vavra, Norby and many other infielders that don't play SS everyday I imagine a "floor 2B" for the next good team will be uncovered.

Do teams sometimes choose lesser prospects to offload O'Day money?  Sure.   But I don't think the liquidity is there for Elias to go to market and say I have $20M in cap space the next four years - give me Hosmer and CJ Abrams for a PTBNL please.

This past trade deadline, it is so very meh that Mancini and the okay relievers are still here, but I didn't really see any similarly structured deals anywhere else in the game where anyone else got much return for that kind of asset.   I suspect Mancini and his Late Arb twin Aguilar's GM's hope NL DH in 2022 might help, but they'll have to wait out whoever wants CJ Cron for not that much.

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

First off, thanks for all you contribute on here. I sincerely love your posts and the thought/research that go into each post. You are awesome.

What makes you think we are at the end of our tanking? I respectfully disagree. We have a franchise catcher, but no SS or infield, SP is thin at best, no CF (plenty of corner OFers). Elias passing on Lawlar was very telling IMO. Until the team is sold, there will be no greenlight to compete and the moves he makes backs that up. I would anticipate a trade of Mancini or Means and a comment in the offseason similar to Jose Iglesias "We just aren't as far along in the rebuild as we had hoped after careful evaluation, blah blah blah".

Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But I don't think we are close at all to competing in the AL East. Not even remotely close. 

Thanks for the nice comments.  Check is in the mail.

The O's have Mullins, Santander, Hays, McKenna, Neustrom and Manicini in the outfield and DH.   Sounds like there is a trade in there somewhere this off season.  Maybe its a real baseball trade of major league players for major league  players. 

I don't know what the O's have with Mateo yet.  He could be a SS or a 2B but so far he looks like a guy that a building team will want to play everyday.   

So the outfield. 1B, C and SS or 2B  are covered.   Elias has to come up with a 2B/SS and a 3B from FA or trade.

I think the O's need to add a SP to Means, Baumann, Tyler Wells, Grayson and Zimmermann in the rotation.

The pen needs a couple of veteran relievers.

So two infielders, a SP, and two relievers.   And Mancini is probably trade bait to get one of them.   I don't want any of the FAs on more than a one or two year contract because what is coming behind them in the minors.

Is it doable? Yes.   Will the O's do it?  I don't know. But it will be interesting to watch.  I think it could be a .500 team if done right.

You say the O's are not close to stop tanking.  I say don't waste the Adley and Grayson years.  Do what is required to improve the team.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

We always say this, but other than that one time Zaidi bought Will Wilson off the Angels for about $12.5M IIRC, I don't remember many transactions in this vein.   That's one thing that actually happened where I felt like Elias missed an opportunity on a ship that actually sailed, but with Jones, Vavra, Norby and many other infielders that don't play SS everyday I imagine a "floor 2B" for the next good team will be uncovered.

 

I remember when the Dodgers and the Braves picked up draft picks by taking on bad contracts and then releasing the players in question.

Of course you have to find a team willing to give up draft picks to save a few bucks...

[Yossarian]

The problem is as much the fault of Major League Baseball as it is the Orioles.  Expanding the league to 30 teams has diluted the talent and concentrated it to a few teams.  With so many teams in the league, you are bound to have competitive teams and teams in rebuilding mode always.  You hope it's a cycle, but some teams (like the O's) have had some poor management/ownership decisions (losing out on the 2014 and 2016 first round picks, for example), some bad luck or bad recruiting with other top picks, and a location that is not as desirable for free agents and this is where we are.  It's like we're building a complete organization (minors and majors) nearly from scratch.  Add to that - the league allows an expansion team to come in the same market as the O's taking fans and money away from a team that is already struggling.  If MLB thinks they have a problem with tanking or poor performance, they only have themselves to blame.

[Just Regular]

22 minutes ago, foxfield said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/08/23/rays-winning-not-entertaining-the-opener

This article about the Rays is worthy of a read.  I think Tom Verducci is at least looking at this honestly.  IS this good for baseball...is it entertaining. 

Good call.   I read wildcard's comment earlier about the Union should encourage whatever the Rays are doing, and it hit me like, I'm actually not sure.    Verducci does a nice job outlining those concerns there.

If I was one of the world's 400 best pitchers, I might not want these other 1000 bozos the labs are cranking out and the pitch designers are measuring that Ryan Mountcastle can't touch that one for six series a year infringing on my opportunity to get the game reps to perfect my craft 162 games a year, or even just get my three years of service to earn Arb money in say less than 5-6 years.

I've heard Elias on his occasional broadcast visits with Garceau, etc mention roster rules as one way to curb the carousels, and just like Spider Tack enforcement, it could be another tool to help Bats keep up with Arms.

[Yossarian]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the nice comments.  Check is in the mail.

The O's have Mullins, Santander, Hays, McKenna, Neustrom and Manicini in the outfield and DH.   Sounds like there is a trade in there somewhere this off season.  Maybe its a really baseball trade of major league players for major league  players. 

I don't know what the O's have with Mateo yet.  He could be a SS or a 2B but so far he looks like a guy that a building team will want to play everyday.   

So the outfield. 1B, C and SS or 2B  are covered.   Elias has to come up with a 2B/SS and a 3B from FA or trade.

I think the O's need to add a SP to Means, Baumann, Tyler Wells, Grayson and Zimmermann in the rotation.

The pen needs a couple of veteran relievers.

So two infielders, a SP, and two relievers.   And Mancini is probably trade bait to get one of them.   I don't want any of the FAs on more than a one or two year contract because what is coming behind them in the minors.

Is it doable? Yes.   Will the O's do it?  I don't know. But it will be interesting to watch.

Next year is the year the O's have to start getting active in free agency.  They need a couple of young-ish (32 and younger) starting pitchers that have been in the league and had at least a little success to mentor the young arms that will be coming up over the next 2 years.  They need guys that can eat innings and mentor.  I agree - a solid defensive 3B with a bat is a priority as well.

[clapdiddy]

I think the thing that disappoints me more than anything else is the lack of production from Santander, Hayes, and others who we thought could contribute this year.   It's very discouraging that we are going into September with nothing (outside of Mullins, Means, Mountcastle, and maybe a couple of relievers) that truly look like they could be long-term assets.  

Combine this with having no one outside of Rutschman and Rodriguez as "top-notch" prospects, I just don't see this team competing in 1 or 2 years.   I'd like to think we could do some things like sign or trade for some players that might get the team to 70 - 75 wins next year.   I do like the idea of getting a couple of vets for the rotation...even overpaying if necessary.  Even that, however, seems far-fetched.   

I don't know what the answers are.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure that Elias and company know them, either.

 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If the Orioles are legit contenders in 2 or 3 years, the Orioles rebuild will be considered a success.  If the contention is seemingly repeatable, it will be considered successful in epic proportions.  The question that is still unanswerable is what financial constraints are placed on the team if any.  

Question for you.  Who is happy they are losing?  I don't see those people...anywhere.  And you are the one that seems to have a terminology issue.  If the rebuild is over and the Orioles are not competitive...the GM should be fired.

I’m not asking if the rebuild will be viewed as a success.  I’m asking if we will be winning because of it.  Those are 2 different conversations.  
 

I never said anyone is happy with losing  but a lot of people are ok with it and are fine with the idea that they are building something and this takes time.  

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not asking if the rebuild will be viewed as a success.  I’m asking if we will be winning because of it.  Those are 2 different conversations.  
 

I never said anyone is happy with losing  but a lot of people are ok with it and are fine with the idea that they are building something and this takes time.  

At this point, the answer, in my opinion is "no".   We don't have enough impact players in the system for this team to be contending in the next 1-2 years. 

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure Rodriguez would have been in the major s this year either way. Rutschman for sure would have been, but he alone would not have changed the fortune of this team that much.

For me saying Grayson would not have been in the majors this year if there was no pandemic is like saying Grayson will not be in the majors next  year.  And though I can see him spending two months at AAA next season he is too good to stay there all season IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

For me saying Grayson would not have been in the majors this year if there was no pandemic is like saying Grayson will not be in the majors next  year.  And though I can see him spending two months at AAA next season he is too good to stay there all season IMO.

I think that barring injury he will be up.

I also think that the constraints put upon him will greatly limit the impact he will have on the team.

[Oriole1940]

Just another example as to how irrelevant many reporters really are.    If no one reads them, maybe they will just go away.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Oriole1940 said:

Just another example as to how irrelevant many reporters really are.    If no one reads them, maybe they will just go away.  

I'm sure Elias and Ownership would be in favor of only MASN reporting on them.

[LookinUp]

For the rebuild to be a success, Elias will have to figure out what went wrong this year, reverse it for a few guys, and not let it happen again.

I'm sure his data is good, but getting pitchers to produce through his data-centric approach seems to have had some hiccups. Maybe they need to bring in someone from Tampa that can teach people.