Winter 2022 40-Man Additions

[Aristotelian]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:28 AM, luismatos4prez said:

September Thoughts

No Brainers:

1. Grayson Rodriguez

2. Joseph Ortiz

3. Seth Johnson

4. Drew Rom

5. Noah Denoyer 

On the Bubble

6. Maverick Handley

I'd be stunned:

7. Ignacio Feliz

8. Garrett Stallings

9. Adam Hall

10. Shane Fontana

Some of you may disagree about Noah Denoyer being a lock, but he had a great year at Bowie with a lot of strikeouts and low walks. He'll be selected in the Rule 5 if he's not protected.

I'm not sure about Handley. I doubt anyone takes a catcher who's never caught at AAA but maybe his defense is special enough to make up for that.

I don't think any of us even considered Logan Gillaspie a candidate last year, so who knows?

Great list and I absolutely agree with protecting Denoyer.

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, JustLearning said:

I have 2 questions -- 1) Given AAA can have 38 people on the roster to protect from Rule 5, how does putting people on the 40-man roster help at all? Some of the people mentioned aren't in AAA yet, and 2) why does an outfielder need to have a stronger bat than an infielder?  

Major League Rule 5 are players that are 19 years or older when signed/drafted who have 4 full years of MiLB service time. If they were 18 or younger when signed/drafted they are eligible for the MLB Rule 5 after 5 full years of MiLB service time. If those guys aren't added to the 40-man MLB roster, they can be picked in the MLB phase of the Rule 5.

Minor League Rule 5 guys are anyone from that group just described above not protected on the MLB 40 man or the AAA 38-man. These are the fringe guys who no one is picking to carry on the MLB roster, but maybe a team has too many upper-level players to protect them on the AAA roster as well. Your Ignacio Feliz types who signed young, struggled to get it going and never made it up in the ranks to warrant being put on the AAA roster by the time the service clock struck (and certainly not the MLB roster) but interesting enough a team like the Orioles pluck him in the MiLB phase.

[luismatos4prez]

End of minor league season thoughts

Protect:

1. Grayson Rodriguez

2. Joey Ortiz

3. Drew Rom

4. Seth Johnson

5. Noah Denoyer

Don't Protect:

6. Maverick Handley

7. Ignacio Feliz

8. Garrett Stallings

9. Brennan Hanifee

10. Zach Peek

-

This is my final answer. It was fun to track how the list changed throughout the year in this thread. Joey Ortiz went from bubble to lock and Noah Denoyer went from unknown to protection-worthy. I think I'll start this thread in spring next year to track the rise and fall better.

I didn't mention guys like Adam Hall or Robert Neustrom, because I think there's no chance. But, I would have said the same about Logan Gillaspie last year. We'll see if Mike agrees with me or throws another curveball.

I still go back and forth on Handley, but ultimately think it's unlikely a team selects a catcher who's never played at AAA.

Any disagreements?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, luismatos4prez said:

End of minor league season thoughts

Protect:

1. Grayson Rodriguez

2. Joey Ortiz

3. Drew Rom

4. Seth Johnson

5. Noah Denoyer

Don't Protect:

6. Maverick Handley

7. Ignacio Feliz

8. Garrett Stallings

9. Brennan Hanifee

10. Zach Peek

-

This is my final answer. It was fun to track how the list changed throughout the year in this thread. Joey Ortiz went from bubble to lock and Noah Denoyer went from unknown to protection-worthy. I think I'll start this thread in spring next year to track the rise and fall better.

I didn't mention guys like Adam Hall or Robert Neustrom, because I think there's no chance. But, I would have said the same about Logan Gillaspie last year. We'll see if Mike agrees with me or throws another curveball.

I still go back and forth on Handley, but ultimately think it's unlikely a team selects a catcher who's never played at AAA.

Any disagreements?

I think they will protect your top seven.   They have plenty of room.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think they will protect your top seven.   They have plenty of room.

I'll go out and buy a hat and then eat it if they protect Feliz.  NO WAY!

[Sports Guy]

Handley seems like a perfect rule 5 pick up. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Handley seems like a perfect rule 5 pick up. 

You would think so, considering that most teams just prioritize having a backup catcher who plays good defense.   On the other hand, someone said there isn't much history of teams taking catchers in the rule 5.   

[luismatos4prez]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You would think so, considering that most teams just prioritize having a backup catcher who plays good defense.   On the other hand, someone said there isn't much history of teams taking catchers in the rule 5.   

There have been only 4 catchers selected since 2009, none since 2016. They were worth -1.3, -1.0, -0.9, and -0.2 fWAR respectively in their first ML seasons (all better than Chirinos this year though). The -0.2 was in only 36 PAs. 

I have a hypothesis that catching at the ML level is significantly more mentally demanding than fans realize.

All this doesn't necessarily apply to Handley, but it's a trend. I'd leave him unprotected and let this Cam Gallagher guy back Adley up next year.

[wildcard]

20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'll go out and buy a hat and then eat it if they protect Feliz.  NO WAY!

Elias protected Gillaspie last year.

[wildcard]

17 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

There have been only 4 catchers selected since 2009, none since 2016. They were worth -1.3, -1.0, -0.9, and -0.2 fWAR respectively in their first ML seasons (all better than Chirinos this year though). The -0.2 was in only 36 PAs. 

I have a hypothesis that catching at the ML level is significantly more mentally demanding than fans realize.

All this doesn't necessarily apply to Handley, but it's a trend. I'd leave him unprotected and let this Cam Gallagher guy back Adley up next year.

Do you think the O's will protect Gallagher?

[CharmCityHokie]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect Gallagher?

He's already on the 40-man, so you'd be swapping Handley with Gallagher essentially, except Gallagher can decline the assignment as he's been DFA'd before. I really like Handley, some of his up-the-line first base pickoffs are amazing to watch in the replays, but I don't think he's getting picked up in the Rule 5.

I also think there is no way Feliz gets picked, especially with how the roster-structure is set up now with how many pitchers you can have active on the 26 man roster. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, CharmCityHokie said:

He's already on the 40-man, so you'd be swapping Handley with Gallagher essentially, except Gallagher can decline the assignment as he's been DFA'd before. I really like Handley, some of his up-the-line first base pickoffs are amazing to watch in the replays, but I don't think he's getting picked up in the Rule 5.  

I also think there is no way Feliz gets picked, especially with how the roster-structure is set up now with how many pitchers you can have active on the 26 man roster. 

Handley had a 352 OBP and a 769 OPS at AA along with being a good defensive catcher.   In my mind the earns him protection and he begins the season at AAA.  I think the O's sign a better backup catcher from FA this off season.  I think Gallagher is DFA'd after the season.

Feliz was a strikeout pitcher at A+ ball.   135K in 92.2 IP.  And a 1.273 WHIP.   That will get some team's attention if he is not protected.   After Elias protected Gillaspie last year I think there is a good chance he is protected.

Edited October 2, 2022 by wildcard

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Handley had a 352 OBP and a 769 OPS at AA along with being a good defensive catcher.   In my mind the earns him protection and he begins the season at AAA.  I think the O's sign a better backup catcher from FA this off season.  I think Gallagher is DFA'd after the season.

Feliz was a strikeout pitcher at A+ ball.   135K in 92.2 IP.  And a 1.273 WHIP.   That will get some team's attention if he is not protected.   After Elias protected Gillaspie last year I think there is a good chance he is protected.

Of the two options, I think Handley is more likely to be placed on the 26-man in this scenario, I just don't see Feliz getting added. Could be a risk, but a ton of K's at high-A doesn't make me think someone pops him in the Rule5, or is necessarily worth a 26-man slot on the '23 Orioles team.

I'm still confused about Gillaspie, it's more or less worked out in terms of his record and numbers, but I am clearly not seeing the raw stuff that Elias and Sig saw when they added him, so I clearly am not someone that should be listened to in this area of study.

[bpilktree]

I think they will have about 12 spots they can use with new guys currently not on the 40 man roster.  So I think they keep the top 5 for sure but then 1 or 2 surprise guys.  It will be interesting to see if they make a trade will they look for major league type players or guys that won’t need to be on 40 man roster for year or so.

[connja]

Starting with current 40 man. I see at least 10 spots we can clear pretty easily;  Marked with "no" next to the name.

Pitchers

• Akin
• Baker
• Baumann
• Bautista
• Bradish
• Yennier Cano - no
• Anthony Castro - no
• Chris Ellis (IL-60)
• Logan Gillaspie
• DL Hall
• Louis Head - no
• Joey Krehbiel
• Dean Kremer
• Jordan Lyles
• John Means (IL-60)
• Cionel Perez
• Jake Reed - no
• Beau Susler - no
• Dillon Tate
• Chris Vallimont
• Nick Vespi
• Austin Voth
• Spenser Watkins
• Tyler Wells
• Bruce Zimmerman

Cathers

• Robinson Chirinos - no
• Cam Gallagher - no
• Adley Rutschman

Infield

• Gunner Henderson
• Jorge Mateo
• Tyler Nevin 
• Rougned Odor - no
• Ramon Urias
• Terrin Vavra
• Jesus Aguilar - no

Outfield 

• Yusniel Diaz - no
• Austin Hays
• Ryan McKenna 
• Ced Mullins
• Anthony Santander
• Kyle Stowers